Clinton Up Almost 30% Over Obama - Do I Hear The Fat Lady Singing?

[MannyGoldstein]

Actually, my subject line is wrong. But, amazingly, if you substitute Dean/Kerry for Clinton/Obama, then you would have the exact situation just ONE MONTH before the 2004 Iowa Caucuses. Kerry was down about 20% from Dean for months.

The point is that polls mean zero about outcome at this point. We live in a country where more than 30% of our population cannot name our Vice President or their state's own Governor. At this point, simple name recognition is more important than anything else, and Mrs. Clinton sure has loads of that!

So, if your favored candidate is other than Mrs. Clinton, your job is to talk to everyone you can about him. Marketing folks say that a person has to hear a brand-new concept 7 times before they stop being uncomfortable with it - make sure that you do your part to get your own friends, family, and acquaintances to that magic number number 7.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

1. Not A Fan

I think without Gore running, she's likely to be "Given" the nomination.

I do not believe that bodes well for our nation, although when she's ultimately compared to the repubs, the Dems will win in the end.

Her presence will make it a Much, Much, Much closer race than if Gore were the nominee.

[LBJDemocrat]

2. Will do

I'll do everything I can to prevent her from robbing the nomination.

[ronnykmarshall]

4. Robbing?

Oh how nice. :eyes:

[emilyg]

Robbing> Gimme a break.

[ronnykmarshall]

3. Oh good god!

It's July 2007!!

This is just ridiculous.

[Xipe Totec]

5. She's not fat

and she can't sing.

[Red Zelda]

6. Has the MSM settled '12 yet?

[Sal Minella]

14. No doubt. Karl is right-this-minute working out "the math."

[napi21]

7. You're right EXCEPT Dean made one fatal mistake!

He was the media darling for MONTHS! But then he said HE would break up the media comglomerates and give the airwaves back to the people! It was the MEDIA that destroyed Dean's candidacy.

I don't see Hillary making a mistake like that! She's been around long enough to know better!

I'm not saying something couldn't happen to change the field. It certainly could! But you really can't compare the Dean campaign with the Clinton one. Howard was innocent enough to still believe he could tell the truth, but he forgot to watchout for that hurrling knife aimed for the middle of his back!!

[karynnj]

22. But Kerry actually introduced legislation against media consolidation

and through his position as ranking member of the Small Business Committee fought the consolidation. Use google, go back and look at early January 2004 or late 2004 - the media did push Clark - as a knight in shining armor and they were very nice to Edwards. They mostly questioned when Kerry would give it up.

Kerry did get exceptionally good medis for the Rassman reunion. This was not because the media loved him - this was as close to a 1940s/1950s class movie moment I've ever seen in a real political campaign.

You had a reunion after 30 plus years of a Democratic Presidential candidate with a Republican police officer whose life he saved in Vietnam. Add to it Kerry's nearly shy comment "that anybody would have done it". They couldn't put this in a 2000 era movie as it lacks any cynisism.

It was an incredible TV moment and it simply spoke for itself - no one spun it for Kerry - there was no need.

To further help, the Dean event that day included Dean, reacting in red faced anger to an annoying 70 plus year old heckler - telling him to SIT DOWN. The contrast - played repeatedly that day on cable and network news - justifiably moved their numbers. (In fact, I KNOW they did at least a little. My husband and I both liked Kerry and Dean - but would have answered Dean to a survey as he seemed to have a chance, while Kerry didn't. We both became strong Kerry supporters that day.)

[Windy]

8. Polls are flawed. How many of you answer your phone when you don't recognize the number?

Most people have caller ID. Also, if someone thinks a solictor of some sort is calling, they barely get a word out and the phone is hung up. I don't think that polls get a good cross section of people anymore. I don't put any stock in them.

[SaveElmer]

9. So then Hillary is in a far better position than Dean was...

Here are the polls from July 2003

As you can see Lieberman led with 18%...Dean in 4th had 11%

Hillary is starting from a much higher base of support, with a longer period of time in which to make the personal contacts you say are required...to a lesser extent the same is true for Obama...

Could make for a very stable race through to next February...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=3395669

[Ethelk2044]

10. She will come crashing down.

[MannyGoldstein]

12. Clinton Cannot Achieve Greater Name Recognition

Thus it is very unlikely that she can be helped by it. In 2004, none of the candidates started with significant name recognition.

[rinsd]

16. None of the candidate in 2004 even matched Hillary name recognition

What she has to do is continue improving her approval numbers while keeping her negatives in the low 40's.

[SaveElmer]

19. Nor can she be hurt...

Her negatives will drop...as they already have...when folks who only know her through the media caricature of her see that she is not as portrayed...

[rinsd]

11. That's good advice in terms of person to person campaiging.

[Bitwit1234]

13. I think his supporters will just push up the bashing.

[Tellurian]

18. The more Obama supporters bash her; the better she does in the polls..

And the better chance she has to speak out against him...

It's a Win/Win all the way for Hillary!

[Imagevision]

15. The Fat Lady Singing? - ha! Oprah Winfrey, Obama's secret weapon!!!

[rufus dog]

17. Cheney and Ahhnuld!

Woo hoo I am not in the lower 30%. Don't ask me to spell the Govs last name though.

[trogdor]

20. The fat lady isn't even in the dressing room.

Hell, the concert isn't for several months, and you expect the fat lady to come waddling out on stage like the opera's over already? Really.

[LittleClarkie]

21. And at one point the polls indicated that Lieberman was going to be our nominee

They're kinda meaningless at this point.