WP political blog's early nominee predictions little changed from previous rankings

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Line: Debate Provides '08 Wake-up Call

....DEMOCRATS

Hillary Rodham Clinton: The expectations that greeted Clinton's entrance into the presidential race seemed impossibly high. And yet, six months in, it's hard to knock Clinton's performance. She has been flawless on the stump and on stage during the debates. By any historical comparison, her fundraising has been off the charts; unfortunately, she has run into the fundraising buzzsaw that is Barack Obama. Even so, Clinton will have plenty of money to do what she wants and needs to do in the four early voting states and beyond. National polling continues to show her with a commanding lead over Obama and every other candidate, even among those who support an immediate withdrawal from Iraq -- a group that theoretically would be most strongly opposed to Clinton. In sum, she is in as strong a position as her campaign could have hoped for. And yet, doubts remain. Can she be both the "experience" candidate and the "change agent?" Can she highlight the successes of her husband's administration and also argue that she is the future-focused candidate? (Previous ranking: 1)

Barack Obama: Say this for Obama and his campaign: They continue to stick to their plan to amass massive amounts of cash, quietly build broad grassroots organizations in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and make sure the candidate is clearly defined as someone who wants to move politics beyond the partisan divide. To borrow a phrase, "Mission Accomplished." But there seems to be a sense among the chattering classes that Obama has lost some of his momentum. The Fix isn't one of those chatterers. Obama is primed to make his run at Clinton between Labor Day and the Iowa caucuses. To beat Clinton is a harder task than some connected to Obama seem to believe, but it's hardly unimaginable. (Previous ranking: 2)

John Edwards: There are two lines of thinking when it comes to how the Clinton-Obama spat impacts Edwards's campaign. The first is that it reinforces the idea that Edwards is a bit player in this campaign, which is fundamentally about Clinton and Obama. The second is that as Clinton and Obama battle over who said (or would say) what to whom, Edwards benefits as he continues to focus on rolling out big ideas. We tend to agree with the latter analysis. During this week's debate, Edwards portrayed himself as the lone candidate capable of creating truly bold change, pointing to his proposals on Iraq, health care and poverty. It's a sound argument, well delivered. But, as always, political reality intrudes. While Edwards's campaign insists that their candidate doesn't have to win in Iowa to remain viable in the race, it's hard to imagine the Democratic nomination fight remaining a three-way affair if the former North Carolina senator doesn't end up on top in the Hawkeye State. The good news for Edwards is that a win in Iowa remains a real possibility. (Previous ranking: 3)

Bill Richardson: We wrote recently that Richardson was slowly but surely making his move. His fundraising has been surprisingly good and his early round of ads in Iowa and New Hampshire has bumped up his polling numbers nicely. Even so, Richardson has been almost entirely ignored by the Big Three candidates, a sign that none of those campaigns sees him as a serious threat. If Richardson continues to grow his support, it's likely one or more of the frontrunners will turn a bit of their fire to him. (Previous ranking: 4)

(NOTE: Chris Dodd is the #5 Democrat. Romney is the #1 Republican. In the previous ranking, Giuliani and Thompson were tied at #2, but Thompson's staff changes have dropped him to #3. McCain and Huckabee follow at 4 and 5.)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/07/friday_presidential_line_1.html#more