Obama tanking in Iowa? Richardson set to take 3rd?

[jsamuel]

http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[thereismore]

1. Still a lot of time. nt

[Colobo]

2. Wishful thinking...

[draft_mario_cuomo]

7. The graph speaks for itself...

What is happened to Obama in Iowa is what happened to Edwards in NH. The difference is Team Obama has so hyped Obama's electoral strength that they are in denial about what is happening to him in Iowa. We Edwards supporters accepted the current reality in NH. As I said in post 6, though, it is too early to write BO off in Iowa--just as it is too early for supporters of a certain candidate to write off Mr. Edwards in NH. ;)

[PurityOfEssence]

14. Well...it's a bit different

What happened to Edwards in New Hampshire was Wesley Clark. New Hampshire's an odd state, and fairly conservative in the classic flinty New England way. Bringing in a war hero with the flush of the "new" about him siphoned off sorely-needed supporters from Edwards. Remember, too, that Clark only took third away from Edwards by less than four tenths of a percent (a whopping 838 votes).

There's another candidate from that race whose saga may be a bit more illustrative of the dangers of being the new kid on the block, and Obama may yet have his Deanfall...

Being the frontrunner also has its dangers, and Clinton is taking some hits, too.

Interesting race, isn't it?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

17. I meant Edwards' 2007 slide in NH since the June CNN debate in NH

I agree with you about 2004, though. Clark had a solid base there and was actually up to about 23% there until Kerry won Iowa.

[sandnsea]

3. Gee, you guys have some work to do

Better hurry up and send in for your trash Richardson rap sheets.

[pstans]

4. Most of RIchardson's bump is from creative TV ads

I have seen Richardson in person twice and wasn't as impressed with him. He isn't as rehearsed as the other candidates. He needs to drop the 5 point plans get his message down. He is very funny and has good discussions with the audience though. Obama needs to start letting the audience ask questions at events if he wants to start winning over voters in Iowa.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

8. Plus his resume, what he is running on nt

[benny05]

24. Good point

I hadn't thought of that angle, Pstans.

[napi21]

5. If true, my guess is the negative battle with Hillary.

Nothing else has happened reccently to make any major changes. Iowans are a bit unique. They want statements, positions, and honest opinions, and they hate infighting!

[draft_mario_cuomo]

9. It is true and has been for a while--before the BO--HRC squabble

For some reason BO is struggling in Iowa (the June poll before the recent one, for instance, had BO at 13% in Iowa). During the same period Richardson has been rising.

[calteacherguy]

16. I have this naive fantasy that all the Iowans get sick of the infighting, then Clark comes to visit

and...

[napi21]

18. I love Wes but he's NOT a polotician!

I really don't think he even wants to run for Prez. Someone talked him into it last time, but it just in his heart.

[19jet54]

20. 80% of my wife's kin is in Iowa

I think you are right on the money

Nash Equilibrium "The best outcome is to do what is best for the group & each person; not what is simply best for him/herself" Obama blew it by attacking his elder statesmen/women too harshly

Americans are sick & tired of Karl Rove tactics to divide America; We need unity, not division - Democrats, Republicans, Moderates, & Ect are all our countrymen - infighting within the Democratic party is a very bad example of good future leadership & unity skills

Being right is not always the most important thing for peaceful social co-existence

[Ethelk2044]

23. Hillary is no one's elder statesman. He is the wife of an wife of an ex president

YOu fool yourself trying to put her up to that level. The general public does not agree with that bs

[19jet54]

29. Wrong!

Obama is a junior senator - Hillary has 8 years as first lady & is on her second term as Senator; not to mention Governor's wife, legal aid during the Nixon Watergate investigation - your the one smoking opium, not me!

Plus I open today's (Sunday) paper on Political Opinions & read almost the same thing I just said in national print - Obama, per the article, now has 2 strikes on foriegn affairs. Regardless, he lost my vote 2 weeks back and now is just piling on more manure to the pile.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

6. It is too early to write BO off in IA but it seems Richardson will surpass him in IA soon

Of course, there is plenty of time left. Remember, Edwards was at 4-5% in Iowa at this time in 2003 and he wound up winning 32% of the vote when it counted.

Obama, for whatever reason, has never resonated in Iowa. He has done well in NH, though, since before he even launched his campaign. He has the opposite problem of our guy, who has consistently done well in Iowa but tanked in NH.

At least in IA and NH, there are now four "top-tier" candidates.

I have to admit I got a chuckle out of Obama's slide in Iowa, given the hubris many BO supporters have toward Edwards' standing in the polls...

[maximusveritas]

10. These graphs are useless because they include partisan polls

including Richardson's own poll.
The Research 2000 poll did show the same trend as that poll, but it remains to be seen how trustworthy that poll is. They were wrong in 2004 and they've been all over the place in this race.
I'll need to see the next ARG, Zogby, and Iowa/Selzer before saying for sure where this race is right now. My guess is that it'll be quite different from what this graph shows.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

12. No one claimed Research 2000 was illegitimate when they had Obama at 22%....

As far as ARG goes, here is what their last poll showed a month ago:

Clinton 32% (+1)
Edwards 29% (+4)
Obama 13% (+2)
Richardson 5% (-3)

ARG had Obama at rohgly the same level. Zogby has not done an Iowa poll since May.

Sometimes your candidate does not do well in polls. I don't see this kind of "it can't be true" response from the Edwards camp when a poll shows him doing poorly, or from the HRC camp when a poll shows her doing relatively poorly (namely, not leading given her standards). I find this consistent response from Obama supporters all the more ironic given the fact that several members of the Obama camp are quick to use polls to dismiss Edwards' relevance...

[aquart]

11. Gore?

These figures are meaningless.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

13. Why are they meaningless in your view? nt

[calteacherguy]

15. The upward slope of the Richardson curve is quite constant. nt

[Dawgs]

27. Right now I'm only looking at the general.

Which doesn't look quite as bad if you support Obama.

It certainly looks better than the Edwards trend.

[TomClash]

19. Iowa's not about polls

It's about organization and turnout.

[Agnostic_Jihad]

21. well

Obama is black and the rural midwest is notoriously racist. They take one look and assume he doesn't care about pig farms and dairies

[Dawgs]

22. Unfortunately, you are probably right, but..

are those voters Democrats?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

25. lol so he has slid from 22% to 16%, 23% to 13%, etc. because they suddenly discovered he is black?

Lame excuse...

[emulatorloo]

31. That's ridiculous. Iowa Dems are damned enlightened. Iowa Republicans, that's a different matter

EOM

[democratsin08]

26. alot of people dont like his attacks on the other candidates

thats why obama is slipping

[zulchzulu]

28. Ever been to an Iowa caucus?

I have.

Polls taken this far away are generally meaningless. At this time in 2004, Gephardt had a commanding lead in Iowa. Dean was gaining...

[draft_mario_cuomo]

30. lol when Obama slips 6 points the polls are meaningless

When he does well they are sacred and trumpeted all day by Team Obama. :rofl:

Early polls will not predict the final outcome but they are good for spotting trends. The trend for Obama is clear in Iowa...

Note: take post #28 with a grain of salt. It was posted by someone who claims he has talked to thousands of people and has not found one who supports Hillary. :rofl: