7.30.07 Ras weekly tracking: Clinton 41%, Obama 24%, Edwards 14% "

[Tellurian]

"The bottom line is that the Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton unless Barack Obama can show them a definitive reason to change their mind. To use a boxing analogy, Obama needs a knock-out punch because Clinton will win the bout on points."

"In the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, New York Senator Hillary Clinton leads all challengers with 40% support among Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Illinois Senator Barack Obama is a distant second at 24% while former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is preferred by 14% (see daily history). New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson earns 4% support. Delaware Senator Joe Biden and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich each attract 2% of the vote while Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd picks up a single percentage point. Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel remains below a quarter of a percentage point while 12% are not sure."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/presidential_tracking_poll

[jsamuel]

1. Big problem with that analysis. This isn't a national primary.

[Tellurian]

2. With Obama within reach, I believe Edwards will start to make his move..

If Edwards forces an attack on Obama, which he will have to if he wants to replace him, Obama is finished. The race for the nomination will be between Edwards and Hillary because Obama can't possibly win SC. It's that simple.

[msongs]

3. its not who votes, its who counts the votes that wins nt

[Tellurian]

5. I have every confidence the Clintons have their bases covered..

If an attempt is made to Kerrycize the Clintons...Not a doubt in my mind, they'll fight for whats right and what belongs to them should Hillary win the Primary!

[nevergiveup]

7. Sorry,

but making absolute conclusions in politics this far in advance of an election is anything but "simple". Foolish maybe, but certainly not simple.

[Tellurian]

12. As a prospective voter, I don't need your permission to state an opinion.

[MannyGoldstein]

9. A Co-Sponsor Of The Iraq War Is Going To Displace Obama???

Not likely.

[Tellurian]

11. I'll loan you my hanky when he does..

[durrrty libby]

4. Looks like Hillary is holding a nice steady lead

:applause: :applause: :applause:

[snowbear]

6. Scott Rasmussen is a WINGNUT crackjob running a Christian Compound in Ocean Grove, NJ

And everytime someone posts one of his polls, people here should be reminded of the type of person who they are reporting on.




(He, like Faux and most rightwing organizations would love nothing more than to see Hillary Clinton in the general election)

[Tellurian]

13. If the numbers were reversed with Obama 40% & Hillary 24%

It would be:




For Obama! Even if the poll were done by an:

[snowbear]

17. Oh Tellu... Tellu... Tellurian..

If I start posting polls on here dearest DU buddy O'mine...

1) They will not be from the batshit crazy living in a psycho compound >

-and-

2) They will not be posted until the late autumn/early winter


Like I've said before to Elmer and whoever else is hung up on polls --- the only ones that I think have any meaning behind them this early are the =LIVE= polls such as the one conducted at the 'Take Back America' conference, or the one that someone posted that was taken at an event in Iowa this past week.

At least with those types of live polls, the tendency to have actual Democratic or left-leaning responders is much higher than the b.s. the media cranks out.

I'd trust the straw poll taken at Daily KOS each month (in which over 20,000 people vote) more than I would some dipshit poll released by a media outlet ........regardless of who was leading.

Remember. It was only a week or so ago that someone posted a poll about Senator Obama leading in South Carolina. http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16188

Just like the BOGUS Rasmussen polls, it didn't mean a thing because it is too damned early.

And lastly.. I am not an "anyone supporter" yet.

I like Edwards, Obama and Richardson equally... but I LOVE Clark the most!!

[Tellurian]

26. I heart U 2 Larissa,

Do you really respect someones' opinion that would write this quote as a point of reference?

"Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 2008."

I'd rather go to a 19th Amendment Party and pretend it's 1920..

[MannyGoldstein]

8. Dean Was Almost 30% Ahead Of Kerry

And that was only two months or so before Iowa.

Polls mean ZERO at this point. Nada. Bupkes.

[jefferson_dem]

10. Tell breaks the "no mid-week reporting of Rasmussen tracking poll" pact...

:mad:

[Tellurian]

14. What pact?... Oh, the Obama pact? Not in his camp...erm..on purpose!..

:hi:

[jefferson_dem]

15. No big deal...

See the link --> http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3389727

Just messin' with you. Good for Hillary. Good for the rest of us...that it's still early.

[Tellurian]

18. Good sport, JD

and for that, I'll share my edible shoes with you..

[jefferson_dem]

20. Oooohh...la....la. Super yummy!

Two of my absolute fave things all rolled into one - women's shoes and chocolate...! :bounce: x :bounce:

[draft_mario_cuomo]

16. Edwards is closing in on Obama. That explains Team Obama's recent attacks on him at DU nt

[Tellurian]

19. probably...

Edwards is facing the inevitable sink or swim moment. Or he can wait for another opportunity that may not come. It probably wasn't in his best interests to acknowledge the frey between HRC & BO.. Because of it, he's unwittingly sequestered his weapons and is vulnerable. It was an unforced error for him to publicly castigate HRC for defending herself. He can overtake BO with the right issue..and may have to defend himself as well.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

21. That was a good move on his part

Biden and Dodd did similar things. They were all right. They all appeared above the fray when HRC and BO were calling each other names. Moreover, Edwards stole some of the thunder from Obama's "new kind of politics" mantra.

[Tellurian]

23. Yes, I understand..

but sometimes silence is golden in this game.. why close your options when you don't have a dog in the fight? You have the message come from elsewhere. You know if he goes after BO, BO is going to hit him on the IWR..He has to have an answer ready to diffuse the attack.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

25. BO is going to do that anyway. The IWR card is the only card BO has left to play

"Hope", "unity", and "new kind of politics" have all proven to be empty slogans. The IWR card won't work for him anyway. Just ask President Dean.

[Tellurian]

27. If that 02' video goes public..

his credibilty would be shot to hell.

[RBInMaine]

22. Edwards has the best shot in the general election right now.

Look at the matchups between the top D's and the top R's. Edwards does better against them certainly than Hillary and I think better than Obama. THIS IS WHAT WE NEED TO LOOK AT!! We need to be thinking hard about who honestly has the best chance to beat the R candidate in the general election. I really like both Hillary and Obama. But they each just have so many risk factors. An Edwards/Obama (or Edwards/Clinton, or Edwards/Biden, or Edwards/Dodd, or Edwards/Clark, or Edwards/Bayh, or Edwards/Clark) ticket, however, would be very tough to beat and it's the R's worst nightmare.

[Tellurian]

24. Edwards has to win the primary, first things first...

HRC excels in every venue, even projected beating the Repubs in the General. So, when is he going to make his move? He has to get past Obama first. What do you suggest as a strategy?