WP, Robinson, "Obama and the 'They' Sayers": Convincing black voters Obama has a chance to win

[DeepModem Mom]

Obama and the 'They' Sayers
By Eugene Robinson
Tuesday, July 31, 2007; Page A19

Are white Americans really, truly prepared to elect an African American president? Seriously, is a nation with such a long and shameful history of brutal slavery, Jim Crow segregation and persistent racism actually going to put a black man in the White House?

One of Barack Obama's principal tasks in the coming months may be convincing African American voters that this whole phenomenon -- a black candidate with a well-financed campaign, proven crossover appeal and a real chance to win -- isn't just another cruel illusion.

I hear from African Americans who are excited about Obama's candidacy but who suspect that somehow, when push comes to shove, "they" won't let him win. It's unclear who "they" might be -- white voters, the "power structure," the alignment of the stars -- and it's unclear how "they" are going to thwart Obama's ambition. The point is that, somehow, he'll be denied.

This anecdotal evidence finds some empirical support in the polls, although it's far from definitive. A recent CNN poll of Democrats in South Carolina -- a crucial, early-primary state where African Americans will cast about half the Democratic votes -- showed Hillary Clinton leading Obama by a bigger margin among blacks than among whites. And while white respondents thought Clinton had only a slightly better chance of winning the 2008 general election than Obama, blacks who were polled thought Clinton was fully twice as likely to beat a generic Republican opponent.

The CNN poll's sample of black voters was so small, and its margin of error so great, that it's impossible to draw firm conclusions. For that matter, it would be a mistake to take any of these early polls too seriously. But isn't Obama at least a bit concerned that black voters might succumb to a kind of historical fatalism about how race works in America?...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/30/AR2007073001270.html?hpid=opinionsbox1