Clinton Loses Ground to Obama in new State Polling

[illinoisprogressive]

American Research Group has released new polls from three early states in the 2008 presidential nominating race.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton has lost ground to Sen. Barack Obama in New Hampshire and South Carolina as Obama has gained among male Democrats in both states. Clinton continues to lead Edwards among Democrats in Iowa, with Bill Richardson cutting into Edwards' support among Democrats and Richardson leading among independents in the state. These results suggest Obama benefited from the July 23 debate and its aftermath in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney has slipped in Iowa and New Hampshire and he is now essentially tied with Rudy Giuliani in those two states. In South Carolina, Giuliani is tied with Fred Thompson as John McCain has slipped into third place, giving up his lead among independents to Thompson.

Iowa:

* Among Democrats, Clinton 30%, Edwards 21%, Obama 15%, Richardson 13%
* Among Republicans, Giuliani 22%, Romney 21%, McCain 17%, Thompson 13%

New Hampshire:

* Among Democrats, Obama 31%, Clinton 31%, Edwards 14%, Richardson 7%
* Among Republicans, Giuliani 27%, Romney 26%, Thompson 13%, McCain 10%

South Carolina:

* Among Democrats, Obama 33%, Clinton 29%, Edwards 18%
* Among Republicans, Giuliani 28%, Thompson 27%, McCain 10%, Romney 7%

http://politicalwire.com/

[dancingme]

1. Go Obama!

:applause:

[Dawgs]

2. I don't like those Iowa numbers, but South Kacalacki and NH are looking good.

I guess the voters aren't buying the spin of the war enablers.

[skyblue]

34. Sorry but the towers were in NY. NYrs are pushy, aggressive, pugilistic.

And alot of them retire to F L O R I D A (Bonus). I suppose alot of them deal less better with facts than with their tough guy nature.

How was she supposed to vote when lots of these people pass by the missing towers everyday and maybe when they come home lights may have appeared where the towers used to be. NY'rs were most likely pro war-- sadly enough.

[MannyGoldstein]

3. No Way Will NH Go For Mrs. Clinton

My neighbors to the north much prefer forthrightness and consistency.

[hijinx87]

4. excellent.

so, hillary is dishonest and inconsistent.:eyes:

why not just come right out and say it directly? at least
that WOULD be forthright and consistent.

[MannyGoldstein]

5. How Did My Statement Differ From Your Suggestion?

Perhaps an example of how they could describe different activities would help.

[hijinx87]

8. I didn't think it differed at all.

I just wanted to see for certain if you were willing to call
a leading candidate the democratic nomination for president
out-and-out dishonest.

[sandnsea]

14. Hillary is dishonest and inconsistent

Oh hell, I'll say it day and night until every DUer finally gets it through their head that WE CAN DO BETTER. ANY Democrat would be better than her.

[Cha]

19. And isn't vilsack a supporter of

hillary which might explain some of the support in Iowa?

[Ethelk2044]

33. Yes

[elizm]

6. Here in SC...

I've seen it on the ground all along. Obama will win South Carolina. GOBAMA!!

[Tellurian]

7. Obama plummeting like a rock in the polls..

Senator Hillary Clinton leads all challengers with:

41% support among Likely Democratic Primary Voters.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama is a distant second at 23%

while former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is preferred by 14%

edited to add link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

[beastieboy]

20. Among democrats and women, she is way ahead.

[Tellurian]

28. And How!

IOWA WOMEN LINE UP FOR HILLARY!

http://www.dmregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070730/NEWS/70730041/1001

[rinsd]

9. Good for Obama.

Though I have to snicker at the sudden credibility ARG polls enjoy with Obama supporters.

[Tellurian]

12. And don't forget the weasley poll pact ..

If anything, after the stunt Obama pulled name calling Hillary all last week, his numbers have only one place to go and thats down! I never thought Obama's star power would burn out so quickly. He should have waited 8 more years to have a record of accomplishments and a decent campaign organization in place before he attempted to take on a presidential bid.

[rinsd]

13. The is a minor spat going largely unnoticed by the general populace.

And that actually hurts Obama.

[Exultant Democracy]

10. Hum, it seems like good news, but I don't buy that Edwards Iowa number

then again numbers in Iowa mean almost nothing, in a caucus it is all about organization and enthusiasm.

[sandnsea]

15. It's Trippi

His numbers have fallen in NH since Trippi took over in April too. His far left lurch only appeals to about 20% of the Dem grassroots, and comes off as disingenuous because at least half of it differs so greatly from what he was saying 5 years ago. The more people compare Edwards' talk with Obama's walk, the worse Edwards is going to do. Edwards desperately needs a change in advisers.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

21. That is false

Edwards tanked in NH after he attacked Clobama during the June NH debate. He was doing fine until then. Moreover, the poll in the OP shows Edwards gaining three points in NH.

[NOVA_Dem]

23. I think Edwards has moved too far to the left to make...

himself a viable general election candidate and that is what I think you're seeing in the polling. Edwards would be my 2nd choice but I think he's made some calculations that would put him at an extreme disadvantage in the GE.

[sandnsea]

26. It's not a matter of left

His policies are relatively fine, they're what people want. It's a matter of the words he uses to present them, the tone he creates. He creates a radical left divisive tone, and that comes straight from Trippi. It's not enough to win the Dem Party, let alone the GE. Not to mention, it's so completely different than what so many remember from 2002, that they just scratch their head and walk away. I sincerely hope he dumps Trippi soon, and gets back to common talk for common people.

[TeamJordan23]

11. I think Obama needs to improve in Iowa and he will than be in a great position. nm

[sandnsea]

16. How's NV?

The west is slightly different than Iowa even. I haven't seen how he's doing out here yet either.

[rinsd]

17. All polling has Hillary up big in NV though the last poll is a month old

Mason-Dixon 06/20 - 06/22 39 17 12 1 7 Clinton +22.0
American Res. Group 06/15 - 06/19 40 16 16 -- 6 Clinton +24.0
Mason-Dixon 04/30 - 05/02 37 12 13 9 6 Clinton +24.0
Zogby 04/11 - 04/12 35 21 15 -- 5 Clinton +14.0
Susquehanna (R) 03/06 - 03/09 32 17 16 -- -- Clinton +15.0
Research 2000 03/06 - 03/08 32 20 11 11 2 Clinton +12.0
American Res. Group 12/19 - 12/23 37 12 8 -- -- Clinton +25.0

[sandnsea]

18. single mom service worker

vote. I'd read that was going to Hillary. They need to send Michelle to NV, not that you would be interested in Obama strategy, hehe. Thanks for the data!

[draft_mario_cuomo]

22. Edwards caught him for 2nd in the last ARG NV poll

;)

[Yukari Yakumo]

38. In the West...

Ed is getting throttled. Except for Idaho, he's not even cracking 15% in most polls.

Then again, most polls are over a month old.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

24. Good news for Obama, mixed bag for Edwards (mostly bad)

Perhaps last week did help him.

As far as Edwards goes, it is a mixed bag. He is finally recovering ground in NH in the ARG poll but he lost ground in SC (about 4 points) and IA. However, he list 8 points in IA and that is disturbing. That said, another IA poll released last week had him gaining and Clinton and Obama losing. We'll have to see which trend proves to be accurate in future polls but the ARG poll is certainly cause for concern.

[Broke Dad]

25. KCCI poll shows Edwards up 27 - 22 on Hillary

Research 2000/KCCI
7/26/2007

See poll details

A new poll from KCCI in Des Moines shows John Edwards and Mitt Romney leading their respective parties.

Edwards was tops among Dems, favored by 27 percent of respondents. He was followed by Hillary Clinton (22 percent), Barack Obama (16 percent) and Bill Richardson (11 percent). Clinton and Obama both saw their numbers drop by 6 percentage points compared to the same poll in May, while Richardson for a boost of 4 percentage points.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney was favored by 25 percent of respondents, followed by Fred Thompson at 14 percent, Rudy Giuliani at 13 percent and John McCain at 10 percent. Romney saw his numbers jump by 9 percentage points since the May poll, while Giuliani dropped by 4 percentage points and McCain dropped by 8 percentage points.

The telephone poll of 600 likely voters was conducted July 23-25 by Research 2000 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In Iowa, we know the people at KCCI. As my father told me down on the farm, "Figures don't lie, but liars will figure."

[maximusveritas]

27. Mason-Dixon also had Obama ahead in SC

and the NH result is consistent with other polls showing a tightening of that race between Obama and Hillary.
The only bad news for Obama is that he hasn't made much progress in Iowa and I'm not sure he ever will.

[jefferson_dem]

29. Obama was the only candidate to gain points (only two, mind you) in the latest IA ARG poll.

The only one who stands to lose by not winning Iowa is Edwards. CW is that if he loses IA, he's done.

...

[maximusveritas]

30. I agree with that

I know Obama has started to put more money into Iowa, so hopefully that'll pay off eventually.

[madville]

32. Iowa is 95% white

I doubt Obama can win Iowa with it being 95% white. They are going to support Edwards and Clinton for the most part.

[Colobo]

35. So white people don't support black candidates?

[Gelliebeans]

36. huh?

[Colobo]

31. Good news for Obama!

[djjimz]

37. Hillary in 2008

I like Obama and believe that one day he will be a doable candidate for POTUS.
I can even see him playing a part in the next administration, but …
Unless some horrific shit hit’s the fan, I’m backing Hillary.
I listen to all of them and none comes across as sincere as she does.
:dem:
Of course, that’s only my opinion.
I’m a DEMOCRAT and no matter who we end up nominating will get my vote and unyielding support.

525 days till freedom

[Imagevision]

39. The more I get to see Obama, the more I'm convinced he should be the prez...

[Ethelk2044]

40. It is good to see him moving up. As people get to know him, he

will do well.