solid blue California at risk for Dems?

welshTerrier2

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Tue Jul-31-07 10:55 AM
Original message

solid blue California at risk for Dems?

Edited on Tue Jul-31-07 11:22 AM by welshTerrier2

the article below suggests that trouble may be brewing for Democrats in California. if true, this could have a huge impact on the 2008 presidential election. but first, a little background and analysis that might be useful ...

there's a group called The National Popular Vote.

NOTE: I don't believe this group has anything to do with the "California" initiative described below.

Here's a brief description of their mission statement:

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee a majority of the Electoral College to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The bill would reform the Electoral College so that the electoral vote in the Electoral College reflects the choice of the nation's voters for President of the United States.

The basic idea is to "get around" the Electoral College. States are being asked to sign-on to a plan under which the state's electoral votes would be divided pro rata according to the "national popular vote." The idea would be to essentially strip the Electoral College of its power and prevent the kind of nonsense we had in 2000 when Al Gore won the national popular vote but "lost" (don't say it!!) the election because of the Electoral College. The plan would not go into effect until two-thirds of the states have signed-on to the plan. The group expects to have the number of states they need before the 2012 election.

I think the idea is great but the implementation is flawed. If more so called "blue states" sign-on, and thus divvy up their electors, but some large "red states" don't sign-on, the red states might cast all their electoral votes for a republican while the Democratic states are diluted pro rata.

With that background, here's what's going on in California:

source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070731/ap_on_el_pr/california_votes_2

A Republican-backed ballot proposal could split left-leaning California between the Democratic and GOP nominees, tilting the 2008 presidential election in favor of the Republicans.

California awards its cache of 55 electoral votes to the statewide winner in presidential elections — the largest single prize in the nation. But a prominent Republican lawyer wants to put a proposal on the ballot that would award the statewide winner only two electoral votes.

The rest would be distributed to the winning candidate in each of the state's congressional districts. In effect, that would create 53 races, each with one electoral vote up for grabs.

California has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections. But the change — if it qualifies for one of two primary ballots next year and is approved by voters — would mean that a Republican would be positioned the following November to snatch 20 or more electoral votes in GOP-leaning districts.

That's a number equal to winning Ohio.

The so-called Presidential Election Reform Act is being pushed by Thomas Hiltachk, a lawyer in a Sacramento firm that represents the California Republican Party and has worked with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. He did not return phone messages left Monday at his office. <skip>

Democratic consultant Chris Lehane called the plan "an effort to rig the system in order to fix the election."

"If this change is made, it will virtually guarantee that a Republican wins the White House in 2008," Lehane said in an e-mail.

Nineteen of the state's 53 congressional districts are represented by Republicans. President Bush carried 22 districts in 2004, while losing the statewide vote by double digits. <skip>