By Congressional district...
If this passes, Republicans are guaranteed the White House in 2008
Is California Poised To Be Next State To Split EVs Proportionally? Add to Hotlist
by Todd Beeton, Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 05:05:10 PM EST
Last week, Jerome reported that North Carolina is likely to become the third state (after Maine and Nebraska) to award its electoral votes proportionally according to the candidates' performance in each of the state's congressional districts (2 EVs go to the statewide winner, 1EV goes to the winner of each congressional district.) Jerome suspects it could swing between 3 and 8 of NC's 15 EVs the Democrat's way, which could be decisive.
Take 2004. Bush beat Kerry in 2004 by 34 EVs, which means Kerry needed to win just 18 more to become president. Let's say in 2008 the Democrat wins all Kerry states in addition to New Mexico (5 EVs) and Iowa (7 EVs,) which seem like likely pickups. That brings the Democrat to within 10EVs of victory, which means just 6 of NC's EVs would send him or her over the top (Dems currently serve in 7 of the state's 13 congressional disctricts.) So, sounds good right? Well, what's good for the goose...Now California wants to get in on the act.
A Republican-backed ballot proposal could split left-leaning California between the Democratic and GOP nominees, tilting the 2008 presidential election in favor of the Republicans.
<...>
"If this change is made, it will virtually guarantee that a Republican wins the White House in 2008," Lehane said in an e-mail.
Nineteen of the state's 53 congressional districts are represented by Republicans. President Bush carried 22 districts in 2004, while losing the statewide vote by double digits.
The difference here is that the California proposal is not going through the legislature as the North Carolina measure did, rather it has been filed for one of CA's 2008 ballots (if it gets enough signatures) for approval by voters. Democrats control both houses of the legislature in California, so, as with so many issues, Republicans have no choice but to bypass the legislative process and go directly to the voters via a ballot measure system that is deeply flawed. The good news is that in recent years the public's default position on ballot measures has been "No;" the bad news is that if the measure does make the ballot, Democrats would be forced to spend millions of dollars to defeat it.
Also see RDemocrat's diary HERE as well as Julia's post at Calitics, which elaborates on how this really is just business as usual for California Republicans (although it should be noted that Schwarzenegger and the California Republican Party deny any involvement in the measure -- believe what you will.)
http://www.mydd.com/
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