New PEW Poll: Hillary Widens Lead To 19, Little Connection Between Candidates and Iraq

[wyldwolf]

Hillary Clinton now holds a nearly two-to-one lead over Barack Obama. The current survey finds 40% of registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they would most like to see her nominated as their party's presidential candidate. Obama is the choice of 21% while Al Gore is favored by 12% and John Edwards by 11%. Pew's April survey had found Clinton with a more modest 34% to 24% lead over the Illinois senator. Over this period, support for the former first lady has increased most among independent Democrats, liberals and moderates, college graduates, middle-aged and older voters.

At this early stage in the campaign, the poll finds little connection between candidate preferences and opinions about Iraq. Republicans who say they want the next Republican president to take a different course on Iraq than President Bush's have similar views about the Republican field as those who do not want change. On the Democratic side, those who want Democratic Congressional leaders to challenge Bush more on Iraq hold the same candidate preferences as those who do not favor a more aggressive approach.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=345

[jaysunb]

1. I wonder what they'll say when she loses

Iowa, New Hampshire, S. Carolina & Nevada.....:shrug:

[wyldwolf]

2. We'll never know...

[rinsd]

6. NV? She lead by over 20+ in Nevada

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_democratic_caucus-236.html

She's also leading in some polls (2nd in others) in IA, NH & SC.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

3. Another poll showing HRC pulling away

The others need to get on the ball and catch her before it is too late.

[CTyankee]

4. What, pray tell, is an "independant Democrat"?

I hope it's a typo and that they meant to say "independants and Democrats."

An independant Democrat is what Joe Lieberman went around telling people what he was, right after he lost the Democratic primary. It absolutely enraged us Lamont supporters. There ain't no such thing.

[wyldwolf]

5. Independents who lean Democrat

[CTyankee]

10. Well, maybe I'm being a bit too sensitive but I don't like the term.

To me it makes more sense to say it the way you just did (and the article did, too, in another paragraph). I have seen an unethical use of "independent Democrat" in my state and I don't like it one bit!

[TheWraith]

7. Hillary is getting set up for a Dean-style upset.

Remember, she's not competing in Iowa; drawing dead in NH; and losing in SC. So that's three early primaries that she stands a good chance of losing. What happens to her media coverage and perception if that happens? Dean was the prohibitive favorite going into the early primaries, but after he got blindsided by Kerry, there was a major swing in the later states, as they got behind the guy who had pulled off the upset.

Hillary may be in for one of these herself.

[BigDDem]

8. Right, hold your breath on that

It's always a great idea to underestimate the Clintons.

[RaleighNCDUer]

13. Hillary is NOT the Big Dawg.

And those who support her because of him need to be aware of that.

[wyldwolf]

15. I'm sure they're all aware of that. The cleavage non-story provided a clue

:rofl:

[RaleighNCDUer]

20. Actually, I'm not sure at all they are.

I'm sure you've seen the same comments as I; if we get Hillary, we will have Bill back in the White House.

If Bill was to do anything more than oversee the Easter Egg Roll on the White House lawn it would destroy the Democratic party - he has his two terms, and any suggestion that electing Hillary would give him two more would make the Democrats pariahs for the next generation.

But there are a lot of people who unthinkingly believe that voting for Hillary would bring Bill back.

And that is my problem with so many Hillary supporters - they are unthinking in their support.

At least around here. Since I've yet to meet one on the street, I have no idea what non-DU Hillary supporters think.

[wyldwolf]

23. LOL!

Right.

[RaleighNCDUer]

34. Right. See #27, below.

Nuff said.

[wyldwolf]

38. Two really peculiar traits...

...with "progressives" on message forums. They always feel they know more than the electorate & how they electorate thinks AND they think "nuff said" closes the book on disussion.

Rookies.

[RaleighNCDUer]

39. And you think progressives are NOT part of the electorate?

Rather, well, elitist of you, isn't it?

You snark at my saying that people think they are re-electing Bill. I point out a post that is saying exactly that. I figure that pretty well clinches that I am not making shit up.

"nuff said" does not close the book on discussion. It merely says I've made my point, that the poster made my point for me.

ON EDIT:
I find it peculiar that so many Hillary supporters make a point of dissing "progressives" when their annointed candidate, asked to label herself as "liberal" says "I prefer progressive, myself".

If Hillary supporters diss progressives, why are they supporting her rather than, say, Biden? At the same time, if she is supported by anti-progressive Dems, but self identifies as a progressive, how can progressives trust her? Are the anti-progressives trying to split the Dem vote over her? Or is she lying about her progressive credentials?

Please explain it to me - I'm just a progressive who doesn't understand logic.

[Clintonista2]

40. That's not what he said at all, pay attention.

He said that progressives *think* they know more than the electorate, and that they *think* they know how the electorate will vote. That statement does not exclude progressives from the electorate, since his statement is obvious in his definition of the electorate being the majority.

[wyldwolf]

41. yawn...

[RaleighNCDUer]

43. Thanks.

Just what I was expecting.

[laugle]

27. She sure isn't the "big Dawg" but we need

Hill and Bill the "DYNAMIC DUO," because we need two president's to clean-up the Bush mess!!

[SaveElmer]

9. Hmmm....

Remember, she's not competing in Iowa

Except she is..in fact the same set of polls you quote for NH and SC show her 9 points ahead in Iowa...but let me guess...that one doesn't count...


drawing dead in NH; and losing in SC

According one set of polls out of many...



In the last two days I have seen Hillary, Edwards and Obama all compared to Dean...in fact Hillary has one huge advantage Dean did not have...a pre-built in, solid core of support in the Democratic Party...

[RaleighNCDUer]

14. Actually, that's a pre-built in, solid core of support

in the DLC.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

16. So why is DLC leader Rahm Emmanuel considering endorsing Obama?

[RaleighNCDUer]

19. Maybe to undermine Obama with progressives?

DLC has been courting Obama for years, and though his votes often coincide with the DLC line he still keeps his distance, officially. But we all know that Hillary is the DLC candidate - though there are others who are also DLC members. You think that Richardson would be at 3% if he had the full weight of the DLC behind him?

BTW, I've been wondering why you have an Edwards avatar, but you never speak out for him, only for Hillary.

Just curious.

[wyldwolf]

17. odd reply

:shrug:

The insinuation is anyone who supports Clinton is part of a "pre-built in, solid core of support from the DLC."

[slick8790]

29. On the other side of the coin...

She also has a pre-built in, solid core of independents and moderate republicans who would never vote for her in a GE, who otherwise might be swayed by another democrat.


Just sayin'...

[rinsd]

11. You have some things incorrect in your post.

"Remember, she's not competing in Iowa;"

She's leading in some polls, right on Edwards ass in others while Obama flounders in 3rd with mid-teens support (and he has spent the most money is IA so far)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

And she's doing that spending far less time than Obama or Edwards in IA.

"drawing dead in NH;"

You reference the recent ARG poll here. Well the same firm for IA has Hillary up a whooping 9 pts in IA.

However, Hillary is beating Obama by at least 4 pts in 6 out of the last 7 polls from different polling firms.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

"and losing in SC"

Again this is one poll the ARG poll. The polls for SC have been more erratic with Hillary leading in 3 polls and Obama leading in 2 so I think you can call SC a tossup at this point.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html#polls

[beastieboy]

36. Let me know when she offends Iowa and screams.

Not going to happen.

[SaveElmer]

12. The most stunning stat here...and one that bodes well for her in the general...

Should she get there...

Clinton has made significant inroads into voter groups that had broadly supported Obama earlier in the year. For example, Clinton now leads Obama by more than two-to-one (41% vs. 17%) among Democratic-leaning independents.

[jefferson_dem]

18. Wow. Good for Hillary.

And here i was ready to label the NBC/WSJ and Ras numbers as "outliers".

Repeat after me... "It's still early..." :bounce:

[Broke Dad]

21. We're not buying any of this Hillary B.S. in Iowa

In Iowa, we get to stand toe to toe and ask the candidates the tough questions. After seeing Hillary repeatedly, we are not buying what she is selling . . . even when she brings Bill in to our 4th of July celebrations.

The Hillary shock troops find and cite polls here at the DU that show her leading in other states. The Iowa polls conducted by Iowa pollsters here in Iowa show her losing ground in Iowa to Edwards. All of the Hillary B.S. posts here do not change that fact. Deal with it. In fact there was a memo leaked from Hillary headquarters that urged her to skip Iowa.

So you Hillary minions posing as DU'ers can stop beating us over the head with "polls" done by God knows who God knows where showing that Hillary can start accepting reservations for the Lincoln bedroom. This is the preseason. Hillary is going to lose in Iowa. We'll see how many of the bet hedgers who are nominally with Hillary now stick around when she gets thrown for a loss in Iowa.

Hillary is Richard Nixon in drag.

[rinsd]

22. LOL! Polls that show Hillary winning don't count

Only a pollster with a miserable record in IA counts!

"In fact there was a memo leaked from Hillary headquarters that urged her to skip Iowa."

Yeah 4 months ago. And now she is beating Edwards in some polls while spending less time and money there than either he or Obama. Go figure.

"Hillary is Richard Nixon in drag."

Naaahh that would be your pretty boy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AE847UXu3Q

[zulchzulu]

31. Amen

I'll be in Iowa this weekend and one of the main missions I have is to find the "Hillary supporter" and get him or her on video testifying on her candidacy.

It should be amusing.

[CANDO]

24. I simply refuse to believe this bullshit.

I don't know a Democratic friend or family member or acquaintance who thinks she's the best candidate.

[ElizabethDC]

25. That must mean we don't exist! n/t

[CANDO]

26. I'm about as mainstream Democrat as there is.

And apparently you are not among my social network. I can't believe anyone thinks this Corporate Democrat who lurks around with Rupert Murdoch no less, will have the little people's interests at heart. Don't buy the media push. Hillary is another Republican light, just like Bill was. That's a FACT.

[Yukari Yakumo]

28. Two problems with the poll

1) It's a national poll. Campaigns are not run nationally, but fought on a state-by-state basis.

2) It includes Al and doesn't show what the numbers would be without him. He isn't currently running and has shown no signs of ever intending to run. Therefore, the numbers could be skewed.

Because of that, we really shouldn't read too much in this poll.

[zulchzulu]

30. Bragging about national polls at this point is either propaganda or desperation...

...or both.

The country will start making up their mind when Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina vote. Whoever does well in those states will ride the wave into the February 5th mega-primary.

Look at the polls in the aforementioned first four states in a couple months to see how it MIGHT pan out. For those of us who have seen, witnessed and worked in more than one election in the trenches both online and on the street, that's where the trends are.

[rinsd]

32. And those trends show Hillary winning NH and Obama lagging in 3rd in IA.

Its a toss up right now in SC.

Hillary is also leading by a wide margin in NV, NJ, NY & CA.

[RaleighNCDUer]

42. Particularly as Al's support would not generally be Hillary support.

His numbers would split mostly between Obama and Edwards - I suspect that DK would pick up more from Al's non-inclusioin than Hillary would.

[EndElectoral]

33. Most people Ive talked with still haven't made up their mind. Just hope the media doesn't for them.

[beastieboy]

35. Republicans want Obama, what does that tell you?

They are afraid of Hillary.

[ellacott]

37. I've heard that Republicans want HIllary n/t

[RaleighNCDUer]

44. Links? nt