Factory Orders Down -0.7% Year-to-Date

[unlawflcombatnt]

June's Factory Orders increased on +0.6%, much less than the +1.5% predicted. This follows a -0.5% decline in May.
Factory Orders are down -$16 billion (-0.7%) year-to-date for 2007, compared to the same period in 2006. June 2007's Factory Orders were -$5.6 billion (-1.3%) less than June 2006's total. Below is a partial copy of Table 2 from the Census Bureau, showing the changes. Key stats are underlined in red.





Below is a graph from Briefing.com showing the year-over-year trend in Factory Orders. Clearly the trend is downward, with year-over-year growth now in negative territory.





A similar downward path can be seen below for Nondurable Goods Orders, which are also showing a decline year-over-year.





Capital Goods Orders (Non-Defense, Ex-Aircraft) are also declining year-over-year, as can be seen in the graph below from Briefing.com.



The above 3 graphs show a downward path that resembles the pattern preceding the 2001 recession. The economy continues to slide downward, as evidenced by the above 3 graphs, as well as Leading Indicators graph (shown below).




Despite Corporate Media spin, and the Bush junta's propaganda, the economy is going downhill. The stock market is NOT representative of the overall economy. It is a manifestation of delusional investors and unfounded optimism. And it's a trailing indicator of the economy. The stock market had reached record highs just before the 2001 recession, just like has recently. And there will be a fall, just like in 2001.

Or maybe like 1929.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. People are tightening their belts

everywhere. I am hearing and seeing evidence of this all over.
I saw the price of OJ here in NYC the other day and it's 5 bucks a half gallon!
Even the damned oranges are 50 cents each!

[WCGreen]

2. The financial press never puts stuff in perspective...

It's always what's going on now...

No one cares about the revisions on CNBC as far as I can tell...

[Doctor_J]

3. I bet the new "Fox Financial Channel" won't be mentioning this

Layoffs just means more profits.

[unlawflcombatnt]

4. 2/3 of Americans think we're in already in a Recession,

or will be in one within a year, according to a survey done by the Wall Street Journal.

America's Economic Mood: Gloomy

By JOHN HARWOOD

8/2/07

"Americans are feeling decidedly sour about the economy and those in charge of it, fueling Democratic efforts to target business interests in the 2008 election campaign.

More than 2/3 of Americans believe the U.S. economy is either in recession now or will be in the next year, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows....

In addition, the poll shows a lack of confidence in economic leaders. That includes not just Mr. Bush and Congress, both of whom have the approval of fewer than 1/3 of all Americans, but the financial industry, large corporations in general and energy, drug and insurance companies in particular....

Yet growth in consumer spending has slowed, and concerns about health costs, job security and the gap between the rich and poor have left Americans downbeat about the road ahead.

"They're ambivalent about the current economy but pessimistic about the future," said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducts the Journal/NBC survey with Democratic counterpart Peter Hart. One consequence is anger at leading economic actors, who respondents believe are failing to protect ordinary Americans' interests.

"There's a combination of anxiety and loathing," Mr. Hart said. "There's a sense that every single one of these institutions is totally out for their own betterment, versus the public they serve."

Democratic politicians are reflecting those sentiments in the 2008 presidential campaign and in legislative proposals in Congress. Populist lawmakers in the House and Senate have targeted oil-industry tax breaks, and challenged pharmaceutical companies on issues from drug prices to generic substitutes to imports from foreign companies. The chairmen of the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance committees, and all three leading Democratic presidential candidates, have endorsed higher taxes on hedge-fund and private-equity managers or firms.

Efforts by Republicans and the business community to raise fears about Democratic tax increases, spending excesses or economic mismanagement have proved unsuccessful. In what Mr. Newhouse called a "world turned upside down," Democrats enjoy an edge in public approval that extends beyond such party strengths as health care and education, where Republicans trail by more than 20 percentage points.

Democrats lead by 35 percentage points on handling gas prices, by 24 percentage points on energy policy and 10 points on dealing with immigration. Even more notably, Republicans lag by 16 percentage points on controlling government spending, 15 percentage points on dealing with the economy and nine percentage points on dealing with taxes....."

[unlawflcombatnt]

5. 92 K jobs created, Dow drops 280+

It's hard to deny that the economy is sinking when the Dow Jones has lost nearly 5% in the last 2 weeks, and jobs creation is 58K less than the 150K considered necessary to keep up with population growth.

What exactly is "strong" about this economy?

Kudlow's "Goldilocks" economy has been eaten by the 3 bears.

[unlawflcombatnt]

7. Employment Distortion

Despite the alleged "increase" in jobs for the month of July of 92,000, total employment reported by the BLS actually declined -30,000 (from 146,140,000 in June down to 146,110,00 in July.) Maybe this under-reported and inconvenient truth had something to do with the stock decline on Friday (8/3/07).

Also worth mentioning is the birth/death model addition to the employment report of 26,000. As has been pointed out by others, this addition seems completely unjustified in a slowing economy. The most obvious conflict comes from the previous additions of these "imputed" jobs to the construction jobs total. For the month of July 8,000 "imputed" jobs were added to the total for construction jobs (which still came out as a -12,000).

Most people on this planet know that home construction is sinking rapidly. And it is not being compensated for by increases in commercial construction. Thus, it's difficult to accept the BLS's premise that employment in new construction business is greater than the jobs being lost. Home construction and spending are down over 20% for the year. Which makes a construction employment decline of at least 20% very likely. Yet the BLS stats show almost no decline in construction employment.

The economy and the job situation are worsening. The government has continued to paper over these declines, hoping to deceive the American public. But they're running out of paper. Eventually the sorry state of affairs will become obvious to all. It's just a matter of time.

Economic Populist Forum

[area51]

6. kick. (n/t)