New ABC/WP Iowa Poll: Obama 27, Edwards 26, Clinton 26

[maximusveritas]

Combined with the ARG poll showing Obama making a big leap in NH, he looks to be surging in the key primary states even as he lags behind Clinton in the national polls.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/02/AR2007080202621.html
In the poll, 27 percent said they would vote for Obama, 26 percent for Clinton and 26 percent for Edwards. The only other Democrat to register in double digits was Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, at 11 percent. Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.) and Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio) trailed at 2 percent, and Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.) at 1 percent.

Former senator Mike Gravel (Alaska) did not get any support among the 500 likely voters in the Post-ABC News survey, conducted by telephone between July 26 and July 31. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

[aquart]

1. Photo finish, anyone?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

22. 23 weeks out?

Good god don't hold your breath.

[Perky]

35. Less time than you think.... We are just a month away from the Labor Daywhere the primary

season has historically started.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

37. And then we'll be 19 weeks away

again, good god.

[rinsd]

2. Wow, all knotted up.

"Combined with the ARG poll showing Obama grabbing the lead in NH, he looks to be surging in the key primary states even as he lags behind Clinton in the national polls."

Except when you combine ARG's poll in IA(Hillary up 9, Obama in 3rd) and Research 2000's poll (Edwards up 5, Obama in 3rd) in IA.

The early primary state polls are getting a little squirrely(SC is all over the place). It may take another poll or two to spot trends.

[maximusveritas]

6. Good point

And given how hard it is to poll Iowa, you really can't put too much stock into any of these polls. But its fun to look at and can sometimes get your spirits up if your favorite candidate does well.

[rinsd]

9. IA is crazy especially when polls use different standards.

Some use likely voters others use likely caucus goers.

SC even though it is a primary has been a mess in terms of trend spotting. With polls coming out right on top of each other with opposite results (Hillary is up 4 in one, Obama 6 in another, both up 9 in separate polls)

Obama is doing fine, he's got cash and good position.

[Hippo_Tron]

18. Honestly, I don't bother looking for trends in primary polling

The general election is very easy to track the way a race is going because there are just two candidates and two parties. Voting behavior is a lot easier to predict.

Primaries are a lot more unpredictable. Howard Dean in 2004 is a great example of this. Polling all the way into January 2004 showed him with the lead and then all of a sudden it was a horse race.

Also, I wonder whether victories in the early primary states will matter as much anymore. With so many states going on February 5th, I'm not sure that voters in those states are going to just latch on to a candidate because of how they do in the first four primaries.

It will be interesting to see how it all turns out.

[JI7]

3. i think that "controversial" debate answer has helped Obama A LOT

it's still early.

but his answer was exactly what Democrats and those who are upset with the Republicans are looking for.

[Bullet1987]

10. Now you see why some in the media and press are attacking Obama so hard

An Obama win in Iowa is a worse-case scenario for Clinton.

[jefferson_dem]

4. Gulp. Big time horerace up there. It's going to be interesting.

:bounce:

[illinoisprogressive]

5. the hillarybots are going to have rust from crying over this.

[rinsd]

7. Why?

Even though Obama has outspent both of them in IA and out visited Hillary by a huge margin, she is statistically tied the lead.

Combine that with the ARG poll for IA showing likely caucus goers (as opposed to likely voters like this poll) Hillary up 9, some new national numbers showing her large lead and her upswing on Rasmussen's daily tracking poll. Except for her Rasmussen head to head numbers with Rudy and Thompson, its been a good week at the polls for Hillary.

[emilyg]

11. You no longer make sense.

[Yukari Yakumo]

17. Why would hillarybots cry over this?

If anyone, the edbots should be the ones crying over this.

[maximusveritas]

20. I don't think anyone should be crying

At this point in 2003, the Iowa poll had Dean at 23%, Gephardt at 21%, Kerry at 14%, Lieberman at 10%, and Edwards at 5%.
While Edwards has definitely lost his early lead, as long as he's still in that top tier, he will have a good chance to win if he can organize better on the day of the caucus.

[Forkboy]

39. You do realize that you are a mirror image if those you mock,don't you?

No...seriously.

[GreenTea]

8. I believe Edwards will take Iowa by three or four points, that's a lot considering the

republicans are doing everything they can to destroy Edwards...You wont see republicans giving Edwards any money...the republicans want Edwards out of the race now...they'll keep attacking him and promoting other Dems and hoping Edwards will fade...I don't believe he will, once people know Edwards excellent progressive platform.

[CTyankee]

23. I think Edwards has fewer weak spots for the Republics to exploit that Hillary or Obama.

They probably figure that it's easier to continue an already established hate fest with Hillary or the covert prejudice with Obama. Hatred of strong women and strong black men has been going on a long time in this country.

Edwards is a different story. For all of the pubs whining about his beauty, there are many people who rather like his looks and don't consider it a sin. As for his being rich, well the repubs are ones to talk and after all, he worked for his money, instead of having it bestowed on him like Bush.

Edwards has a lot going for him. If he wins the nomination and taps Wes Clark as his running mate, he'd be hard to beat.

[GreenTea]

31. Without a fucking doubt & the republicans know this very well & want Edwards gone ASAP!

If I was a republican I certainly wouldn't wan to face Edwards...I'd be donating to Hillary's campaign just as the republicans are in droves!

[sandnsea]

12. Wow

That is really surprising. I guess the people are happy with Obama talking clearly about a new course.

[BeyondGeography]

13. It's early and the polls are all over the map

Take'em all with a grain of salt.

[WCGreen]

14. Is that likely caucus voters or just likely voters...

Big difference...

[sampsonblk]

15. Likely caucus participants-nt

[TeamJordan23]

16. Awesome news. nm

[Ethelk2044]

19. States are what counts in the Primary not National Polls

[elizm]

21. Be still my heart!

I particularly like the part about how over half the voters are looking for new direction and change where only 39% were more concerned about the so-called 'experience factor'. Obama is our hope for the future!

[Deep13]

24. Let's see who can pack the hall.

Polls don't mean much in Iowa. What matters is who has the ground-level support to pack the caucuses with supporters.

[Colobo]

25. Nice! Very nice indeed! Gobama!

[TwilightGardener]

26. YAYYY!!! Go, Skinny Dog!!

[Inspired]

27. I've been canvassing in Iowa and...

these polls are very misleading. I have been going to the doors of folks who participated in the last caucus. I don't have hard numbers but I can relate back to you what folks are saying when I visit their homes.

I don't want to mislead anyone so I will be upfront that I am a John Edwards supporter. However, I will be very honest with my feedback.

1. The vast majority are still undecided. In fact, most wonder why we are bothering them so early in the campaign. Many are still smarting from what happened to Dean and they don't want to jump on the bandwagon of any candidate just yet. They don't want to make the same mistake again. Iowans tend to stick by their early pledges.

2. John Edwards has a lot of support from people who caucused for him in '04. Since the area of Iowa that I'm canvassing in went heavily for Edwards in '04, I have seen a lot of continued support. People think he's a better candidate this time around. They worry about Elizabeth and how her health might impact the campaign. There doesn't seem to be particular demographic of an average Edwards supporter.

3. Hillary's support comes mainly from women 50+ years old. They like the idea of having a woman in the White House and they love the idea of Bill being back in it. The Hillary supporters tend to be upper middle class women.

4. People are intrigued by Obama but not ready to commit to him. They like the idea of a fresh face but that also worries them a little. The Obama supporters tend to be younger men, in their 30's.

5. Richardson's TV ads are working. If he doesn't run out of money (his ads play all the time and that costs a fortune) we all might be in for a big Iowa surprise. With Richardson, it is all in the TV ads. As with Edwards, there isn't an average demographic on a Richardson supporter.

My take on all of this? Watch out for John Edwards and Bill Richardson. Why? Because they seem to appeal to a broader spectrum of people.

This concludes my on the streets, not very scientific analysis of what is going on in Iowa right now!

[maximusveritas]

29. Thanks for that

Your first point is definitely true from my viewpoint as well. While us political junkies are paying close attention to every single word the candidates say, the average voter (even the average caucus-goer) just isn't paying attention yet. And even if they are, they're not prepared to cast their vote anytime soon.

[slick8790]

30. Thanks for the post.

Interesting to hear some first hand observations. Personally, for the reasons you said in number 2, I think John's gonna squeak out a victory by 3 or 4 points, and then the whole thing is gonna be up in the air.

[JohnLocke]

36. Thank you for your post.

Very informative. :)

[ChiciB1]

28. FERGIT IT! I Pay No Attention To Polls Anymore!! Living In Florida

I MUST state THAT EVERY ELECTION since 2000 has been ABSOLUTELY incorrect!!! Plus, it's much too early and there are far too many polls being taken. Some of them I NEVER even heard of!

[LaPera]

32. Edwards will do very well in Iowa & NH.

[last_texas_dem]

33. Interesting poll

I can definitely believe that the race is this close in IA. It seems like within the last couple of weeks (perhaps even the last week) I've seen different polls posted that showed each of the top three candidates leading in IA. This race is definitely up in the air.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

34. If acccurate, a watershed for Obama

This marks the first poll in which Obama has led in Iowa. If accurate, this is a huge boost for the Obama camp. Of course, the last two polls had him a distant 3rd at 15% and 16%. This poll has him leading at 27%. Either this poll is wrong about Obama or the last two were wrong.

[Colobo]

38. Let's keep this thread alive.

[illinoisprogressive]

40. I take it with a grain of salt but, it's nice to see that Iowa supports him

[Colobo]

41. Let's enjoy it anyway- we deserve it. :)