Poll Goodies on that recent WaPo/ABC poll for IA showing a neck and neck race

[rinsd]

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone July 26-31, 2007, among a random sample of 500 Iowans likely to vote in the Democratic caucuses. The results have a four percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not?

Yes No No opinion
7/31/07 100 0 0



2. How closely are you following the 2008 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

----- Closely ------ ----- Not closely ------ No
NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opinion
7/31/07 88 42 46 12 9 3 *


3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend one of the Iowa presidential caucuses that will be held in your precinct next January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

Certain Probably Chances Less than Will not No
to attend attend 50/50 50/50 attend (vol.) opin.
7/31/07 50 50 0 0 0 0


4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct?

Democratic caucus Republican caucus
7/31/07 100 0


5. If the Democratic caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, and Mike Gravel), who would you support?

NET LEANED VOTE:

7/31/07
Barack Obama 27
Hillary Clinton 26
John Edwards 26
Bill Richardson 11
Joe Biden 2
Dennis Kucinich 2
Chris Dodd 1
None of these (vol.) 2
No opinion 4


6. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Do you support (CANDIDATE) strongly, or somewhat?

7/31/07 - Summary Table

Strongly Somewhat No opin.
Hillary Clinton 60 39 1
John Edwards 53 47 0
Barack Obama 56 44 0



7. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Who would your second choice be?

NET LEANED VOTE:

7/31/07
Barack Obama 26
Hillary Clinton 23
John Edwards 23
Bill Richardson 12
Joe Biden 4
Chris Dodd 3
Dennis Kucinich 1
Mike Gravel *
Other (vol.) 1
None of these (vol.) 4
Would not vote (vol.) 1
No opinion 3


First choice/Second choice NET

7/31/07
Barack Obama 51
Hillary Clinton 48
John Edwards 48
Bill Richardson 22
Joe Biden 5
Chris Dodd 4
Dennis Kucinich 3
Mike Gravel *
Other (vol.) 1
None of these (vol.) 5
Would not vote (vol.) 1
No opinion 7


8. Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Democratic nomination for president - are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?

---- Satisfied ------- --- Dissatisfied ---- No
NET Very Somewhat NET Somewhat Very opinion
7/31/07 89 53 36 10 9 1 1


9. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Democratic candidates do you think (ITEM) - (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden , Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, or Mike Gravel)?

7/31/07 - Summary Table

Other/none/
Clinton Edwards Obama Richardson no opin.
a. is the strongest leader 36 18 23 9 13
b. best understands the problems
of people like you 22 25 27 9 17
c. is the most honest and trustworthy 14 24 30 8 24
d. has the best experience to be president 50 15 7 13 15
e. has campaigned the hardest in Iowa 30 29 22 3 16
f. has the best chance of getting elected
president in November 2008 35 22 23 4 16
g. is closest to you on the issues 20 24 26 11 19
h. is best able to handle the situation
in Iraq 29 16 17 12 25
i. is the most likeable 14 33 33 9 11


Trend:

a. is the strongest leader

7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 36
Barack Obama 23
John Edwards 18
Bill Richardson 9
Joe Biden 2
Dennis Kucinich 1
Chris Dodd *
All of them *
None of them 2
No opinion 9

b. best understands the problems of people like you

7/31/07
Barack Obama 27
John Edwards 25
Hillary Clinton 22
Bill Richardson 9
Chris Dodd 2
Dennis Kucinich 2
Joe Biden 1
Mike Gravel *
All of them 1
None of them 4
No opinion 6

c. is the most honest and trustworthy

7/31/07
Barack Obama 30
John Edwards 24
Hillary Clinton 14
Bill Richardson 8
Dennis Kucinich 3
Joe Biden 2
Chris Dodd 2
Mike Gravel *
All of them 4
None of them 5
No opinion 9

d. has the best experience to be president

7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 50
John Edwards 15
Bill Richardson 13
Barack Obama 7
Joe Biden 5
Chris Dodd 2
Dennis Kucinich *
All of them 2
None of them 3
No opinion 4

e. has campaigned the hardest in Iowa

7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 30
John Edwards 29
Barack Obama 22
Bill Richardson 3
Chris Dodd 1
All of them 3
None of them 1
No opinion 10

f. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008

7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 35
Barack Obama 23
John Edwards 22
Bill Richardson 4
Joe Biden 1
Chris Dodd *
Dennis Kucinich *
All of them 1
None of them 2
No opinion 12

g. is closest to you on the issues

7/31/07
Barack Obama 26
John Edwards 24
Hillary Clinton 20
Bill Richardson 11
Dennis Kucinich 3
Joe Biden 2
Chris Dodd 1
All of them 2
None of them 3
No opinion 8

h. is best able to handle the situation in Iraq

7/31/07
Hillary Clinton 29
Barack Obama 17
John Edwards 16
Bill Richardson 12
Joe Biden 5
Chris Dodd 2
Dennis Kucinich 1
All of them 2
None of them 5
No opinion 12

i. is the most likeable

7/31/07
John Edwards 33
Barack Obama 33
Hillary Clinton 14
Bill Richardson 9
Joe Biden 1
Chris Dodd *
Dennis Kucinich *
All of them 2
None of them 1
No opinion 6


10. So far in the Democratic campaign, have you (ITEM)?

7/31/07 - Summary Table

Yes No No opin.
a. Been called on the telephone
by any of the campaigns 71 29 *
b. Attended a campaign event 40 60 0
c. Contributed money to any of
the presidential candidates 17 82 *
d. Visited any of the candidates'
Web sites on the Internet 33 67 0
e. Received e-mails from any
of the campaigns 32 66 2

Trend: comparisons to Pew Research Center Iowa Democratic caucuses poll, December 2003.

a. Been called on the telephone by any of the campaigns

Yes No No opin.
7/31/07 71 29 *
12/4/03 74 26 *

b. Attended a campaign event

Yes No No opin.
7/31/07 40 60 0
12/4/03 34 66 *

c. Contributed money to any of the presidential candidates

Yes No No opin.
7/31/07 17 82 *
12/4/03 20 79 1

d-e. No trend.


11. All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

----- Worth fighting ---- --- Not worth fighting -- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion
7/31/07 11 5 6 87 8 79 2


12. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?

Have attended First caucus No opinion
7/31/07 68 31 *



13. Which of these is more important to you in a candidate for president: (strength and experience) or (a new direction and new ideas)?

Strength and New direction Both Neither No
experience and new ideas (vol.) (vol.) opin.
7/31/07 39 49 11 * 1


NOTE: J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Company, Inc of Des Moines, Iowa consulted on this project.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_080307.html?hpid=topnews

[Inspired]

1. These poll results make me dizzy! n/t