Latest Newsweek Poll: Hillary - 44, Obama - 23, Edwards - 14, no pref/don't know - 11

[rinsd]

2.Which one of the following would you most like to see nominated as the next Democratic candidate for president.

BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
Total Democrat Democrat Leaners 6/21/07
44 Hillary Clinton 46 38 43
23 Barack Obama 23 23 27
14 John Edwards 12 18 14
3 Joe Biden 3 4 1
2 Dennis Kucinich 2 3 3
1 Bill Richardson 2 * 2
1 Mike Gravel 1 2 *
1 Chris Dodd 1 1 1
0 Other candidate 0 0 2
4 None/No preference 2 8 *
7 DonÕt know 8 3 7


Lots more survey stuff at the link - http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20109634/site/newsweek/

[draft_mario_cuomo]

1. Edwards now within single digits of Obama... nt

[jsamuel]

4. multiple rasmussens have shown that this week

although not today's

[draft_mario_cuomo]

6. Single day polls will vary but the trend is clear in Rass' polls nt

[William769]

8. I have said all along Edwards will overtake Obama.

The race is going to come down to Hillary and Edwards.

[Clark2008]

13. "No idea" within single digits of Edwards.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

17. Resistance is futile. All your votes belong to Clobama. Everyone else should drop out now

:sarcasm:

[SaveElmer]

2. Hillary up 1 since the last poll, Obama drops 4...

And Edwards stays flat...

Poll after poll shows the same thing, Hillary increasing her lead after each debate...

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. Edwards stayed the same. You are right, though HRC increases her lead over BO after every debate nt

[SaveElmer]

11. Thanks...

Misread it

[draft_mario_cuomo]

14. Np. btw I am glad you noticed that HRC increases her lead over BO after EVERY debate

I wonder why? ;)

[MannyGoldstein]

3. It Doesn't Matter, But...

I believe that Mrs. Clinton is plummeting in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.

But these polls mean zero at this point.

[William769]

7. Then why mention them?

[MannyGoldstein]

9. Does It Bother You? n/t

[William769]

10. No. Just a funny statement to make.

[rinsd]

12. "Mrs. Clinton is plummeting in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire" Except she isn't.

While Hillary saw a dip in her numbers in IA from Research 2000(still remained in 2nd), she has saw a big rise in ARG. In the first ABCNews poll, she, Obama and Edwards are in a statistical dead heat. And that is with both of those guys out visiting her in the state and Obama outspending both she and Edwards.

In NH, a new ARG poll shows her and Obama tied. This is the 1st poll to show anyone within the MOE of Clinton in NH and it remains to be seen if it is an outlier.

[William769]

15. That is from someone who uses a poll to make a statement but doesn't believe them.

I'm still trying to figure that one out.

[SaveElmer]

16. Definitiion of plummeting...

"To decline suddenly and steeply"

In Iowa the last three polls have shown...

Hillary down by 4
Hillary up by 9
Hillary, Edwards and Obama tied...

One poll (ARG) showed Obama tied with Hillary in New Hampshire...the rest she has been ahead

South Carolina...two of the last three show her with a double digit lead...one(ARG) shows her slightly behind


So no, plummeting certainly does not describe what is going on in these three states...

[PATRICK]

18. By comparison

Polls depend on when they are taken. the people in battleground early states are ebagaged more now than in national polls. A big discrepancy might be written off to unique local politics OR the strength of a campaign engagement locally. It does show the vulnerability and weakness of the national picture as opposed to places where decisions are actually being engaged up close and personal.

That doesn't mean that current early state polls simply trump the national scene. These are both snapshots about time and place and enagagement. In fact, the Iowa polls ARE more significant as fast forward snapshots for the national scene. The caucus system shows the right campaign and organizational approach can really effect the difference, but one needs to have a popular will overall in the state. Dean got had because the locals did not accept the national picture lagging behind their actual choice time.

Hillary knows she has trouble here and that oddly everything is at risk here for her and Edwards. She has to win or show without investing too much poltical capital. Edwards must win, but what does he have to lose? Obama, oddly is the one who can survive this with a loss except in the single digits.