California: Hillary at 51% in latest poll...

[SaveElmer]

According to SurveyUSA she is pulling away in the Golden State...

Hillary 51%
Obama 27%
Edwards 14%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=09756021-204b-4006-ac7e-2b89f6468ba4

[n2doc]

1. Its it just name rec?

WTF is so great about HRC? Why are Californians so quick to dismiss the others?

More important, though, is what is the overall level of support- are they truly committed?

[wyldwolf]

3. I think not

Hillary is about tapped out on name recognition. The question now is who DOESN'T know the name. Yet she continues to climb in the polls. Obama's name recognition rises everytime a poll measures it, yet he is either flat or sinking in the polls.

[Morereason]

41. Not surprising for a state that voted for Schwartzenager. They go for celebrity? Name recognition?

[SaveElmer]

2. A couple of interesting stats on this...

Hillary is pulling in 62% of women...

And she has now taken a 4% lead among men...

[Clark2008]

18. Is that 62 percent of Democratic women?

I don't see her getting that in a general election - from any demo.

[SaveElmer]

23. Yeah...it was a primary poll...nt

[beberocks]

4. I'm seeing a lot of Obama and Kucinich bumper stickers here

Of course, Sonoma County CA is one of the most liberal areas
of the nation, but not all CAs are supporting HRC.

[Tellurian]

6. Not yet! It's early...

everytime Hillary is on tv with the "boys", her numbers increase.

note to self: arrange for FREE bottles of bumpersticker remover!

[zulchzulu]

11. Welcome to DU!

Love that Sonoma wine...

[durrrty libby]

5. Wowza Just numbers, but they make me very happy

[Broke Dad]

7. Apparently money from corporate lobbyists can buy you love . . .

Apparently money from corporate lobbyists can buy you love or elections. Obama is right, Hillary is Bush lite.

[durrrty libby]

9. Apparently Obama is not very truthful

"Sen. Obama finesses his lobbyist ties
By Alexander Bolton
April 19, 2007"


----
"Three of Obama’s top fundraisers, who each have raised more than $50,000 for his campaign since January, were registered as lobbyists last year, according to reports filed with the Senate Office of Public Records."


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3431893


Tsk Tsk Tsk

[Scriptor Ignotus]

19. if you were a banker in 2005

then got a job as a carpenter from 2006 and on, would you go around telling people you are currently a banker? Would you file your 2006 or 2007 taxes as a banker?

The fact that he had donors that used to be lobbyists is a non-issue although I do find it humorous that you are trying to malign a candidate for allegedly doing something your candidate is known to do and is proud of doing.

[rinsd]

20. Channeling Carville "Its the hypocrisy, stupid" And this is hardly the only issue with Obama (nt)

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[rinsd]

26. What is he waiting for? Is he conceding CA to Hillary?

Seriously, he's got a ton of cash and a huge donor base to draw from.

[Scriptor Ignotus]

28. got to win the first states first

Iowa, NH, SC, you know how it is.

[rinsd]

29. That makes sense for a campaign with limited resources. That isn't the case for Obama.

He should be fighting tooth and nail for CA.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Alamom]

10. Great news SE. #5. Thanks for posting. nm

[Karmadillo]

12. State polls are irrelevant. It's national polls that count--Doh!!!!

nt

[SaveElmer]

13. LOL

:rofl:

[suigeneris]

16. Not true.

As long as there's an Electoral College it's state victories that count.

[dugggy]

43. Are'nt ALL primaries state by state? So state polls supercede national

as far as I am concerned.

[Pachamama]

14. That's so weird...how is it that she pulls away 51% when I'd say 95% of the people I know who are

voting Democrats can't stand her and support mainly Obama or Edwards...

It simply defies the odds....weird :eyes:

[William769]

15. Maybe it says something about the crowd you hang out with.

[Pachamama]

35. Yes, maybe it does say something about the crowd I "hang" out with...

It's not just the people I "hang" out with, its the people who work at the neighborhood stores or that I overhear speaking at tables next to me in restaurants and cafe's. And as far as the people I "hang" with and especially those whose opinions I respect, who include educators and people who are very active in politics. I live in a community that is very affluent and well connected and of neighbors that I have, they support Obama and Edwards. The few that support Hillary, have found themselves at cocktail parties trying to "convince" people of why they "should" support Hillary. People aren't "buying it". And the funny thing is the women that are very progressive and are feminists, will make statements like "I would love a woman president, I just don't want Hillary".

[Alamom]

38. Sen Clinton has support & endorsements in your state...it is a big state,

There could be more, these are the ones I've seen announced. My thinking would be, if she has professionals, politicians (current & former), a very well know Human Rights leader, Senator, Congresswoman, etc., she would have support among the masses. I could be wrong.


8/3/2007
Los Angeles City Council Members Wendy Greuel, Jan Perry, Jack Weiss


7/25/2007
California Senator Dianne Feinstein


7/24/07
California Assemblyman Sandré Swanson

6/27/2007
Congresswoman Lucille Roybal-Allard

6/22/07
Mayors From Across California Endorse Clinton

As Hillary Clinton addressed the 75th U.S. Conference of Mayors meeting in Los Angeles today, she received the endorsements of 34 current and former California mayors, illustrating her growing support in the Golden State.

CALIFORNIA MAYORS ENDORSING HILLARY TODAY:

Antonio Villaraigosa, Los Angeles Mayor
Otto Lee, Sunnyvale Mayor
Elba Guerrero, Huntington Park Mayor
Laura Lee, Cerritos Mayor
Louis Byrd, Lynwood Mayor
Beverly Johnson, Alameda Mayor
Manuel Lozano, Baldwin Park Mayor
Kris Wang, Cupertino Mayor
Janet Lockhart, Dublin Mayor
Barbara Pierce, Redwood City Mayor
Jennifer Hosterman, Pleasanton Mayor
Ray Soleno, Reedley Mayor
Vicki Vidak-Martinez, Rohnert Park Mayor
Robert Fierro, Commerce Mayor
Ray Luna, Santa Paula Mayor
Daniel Furtado, Campbell Mayor
Henry Manayan, Former Milpitas Mayor
Wendy Baker, Former Fairfax Mayor
Sally Lieber, Former Mountain View Mayor, Assemblywoman
Carol Liu, Former La Canada Mayor
Joaquin Gonzalez, Former Hanford Mayor
Diane Martinez, Former Paramount Mayor
Leticia Vasquez, Former Lynwood Mayor
Ofelia Hernandez, Former Huntington Park Mayor
Juan Noguez, Former Huntington Park Mayor, City Councilman
Emelina Pedras, Former Lynwood Mayor
Maria Davila, Former South Gate Mayor
Frank Quintero, Former Glendale Mayor
Tomas Martin, Former Maywood Mayor
Dan Hauser, Former Arcata Mayor
Thea Gast, Former Arcata Mayor
Alex Stillman, Former Arcata Mayor, Arcata Councilman
Jim Test, Former Arcata Mayor
Cindy Chavez, Former San Jose Vice Mayor


5/18/07
Human Rights Leader Dolores Huerta

4/28/07
Former California Gov. Gray Davis

4/28/07
California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez


4/27/2007
Hillary Clinton received the endorsements of two dozen prominent California officials and community leaders today, on the eve of California’s Democratic state convention in San Diego.


Leading Californians Endorsing Hillary Today:


Bill Lockyer, California Treasurer
Gray Davis, Former Governor
Christine Kehoe, State Senator
Sheila Kuehl, State Senator
Fiona Ma, State Assemblywoman
Clarence Avant, Music Executive
Berry Gordy, Music Producer and Founder of Motown Records
Quincy Jones, Musician
Rev. Amos Brown
Rosalind Wyman, Democratic National Committee Member and CEO of 1984 Democratic National Convention
Maria Echaveste, Democratic National Committee Member
Alice Huffman, Democratic National Committee Member
Mirian Saez, Democratic National Committee Member
Dennis Herrera, San Francisco City Attorney
Michela Alioto-Pier, San Francisco City Supervisor
Joe Nation, Former Assemblyman
Jackie Speier, Former State Senator
Otto Lee, Mayor of Sunnyvale
Henry Manayan, Former Mayor of Milpitas
Rajen Anand, Chairman of the National Federation of Indian-American Associations
Alice Bulos - Chair Emeritus of the Filipino American Democratic Caucus
Charmaine Manansala, former Advisor to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House Initiative on Asian American and Pacific Islanders
Dang Pham, Vietnamese Activist
Rose Ochi, Attorney
Jim Park, Businessman

[flyarm]

22. I AM SEEING THAT AS WELL..I KNOW OF NO DEM WOMEN WHO WANT HILLARY!! NONE!! EOM

[durrrty libby]

30. Women at my gym like her. Women at work like her

I even ask female cashiers in the stores I visit. At least half of them are enthusiastic about

HRC. Most of the others don't follow politics.

[flyarm]

31. well i run a nationwide internet group of dems ...and none want her

i run an internet group nationwide and i am on rapid response in Florida..with hundreds and hundreds of dems..

i only know of one woman who supports her and this woman is DLC..

i have women who are DEC chairs and SEC chairs in the dem party in different states ..and i have close to 1000 people in my nationwide dem internet group..and no one is supporting Hillary

i belong to 6 dems clubs in 2 states..no one is supporting Hillary

so i want to know who these people are that are supposedly supporting Hillary

i have many repub friemds through business..and she is hated by them..

so who the hell are these so called supporters of hillary????????

i can't find them!!

fly

[wyldwolf]

32. DU is nationwide internet group of dems - and she has supporters here.

i only know of one woman who supports her and this woman is DLC..

So I guess she only gets 1/2 a vote, huh? :eyes:

[durrrty libby]

34. Oh well...........the polls state otherwise or you live in an

alternate universe.

[Alamom]

39. She has support & endorsements in Florida on record.....would you care to name the other states?

[dugggy]

42. There are the internet lurkers and then there are the real people LOL

and the real people seem to like HRC.

[nolabels]

45. Probably uninformed who are only seeing her image without the issues

I have have tried to show my wife again and again how they are feeding her B.S. on television news but she still thinks she is informed by watching it.
Many people in the U.S. think they are too busy to be following something like politics so a glimpse of the tube is probably all they think they need :scared:

[Ethelk2044]

25. It is called Rigged Polling. Like Eugene Robinson stated last week

They are not polling the african americans correctly. The sample is too small to get a true gist of how they are going to vote. It was interested his article on the polling samples.

[rinsd]

27. Rigged Polling? That how desperate you have become?

"The sample is too small to get a true gist of how they are going to vote."

Even if Obama got 100% of the African American vote, it would not narrow the gap between him and Hillary.

"Like Eugene Robinson stated last week. They are not polling the african americans correctly. The sample is too small to get a true gist of how they are going to vote."

He was citing a specific section in a single poll. And that section had an MOE of 8.

Here's his article

"I hear from African Americans who are excited about Obama's candidacy but who suspect that somehow, when push comes to shove, "they" won't let him win. It's unclear who "they" might be -- white voters, the "power structure," the alignment of the stars -- and it's unclear how "they" are going to thwart Obama's ambition. The point is that, somehow, he'll be denied.

This anecdotal evidence finds some empirical support in the polls, although it's far from definitive. A recent CNN poll of Democrats in South Carolina -- a crucial, early-primary state where African Americans will cast about half the Democratic votes -- showed Hillary Clinton leading Obama by a bigger margin among blacks than among whites. And while white respondents thought Clinton had only a slightly better chance of winning the 2008 general election than Obama, blacks who were polled thought Clinton was fully twice as likely to beat a generic Republican opponent.

The CNN poll's sample of black voters was so small, and its margin of error so great, that it's impossible to draw firm conclusions. For that matter, it would be a mistake to take any of these early polls too seriously. But isn't Obama at least a bit concerned that black voters might succumb to a kind of historical fatalism about how race works in America?"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/30/AR2007073001270.html

[Liberty Belle]

17. In San Diego, I know hundreds of Democrats.

Almost all are supporting Edwards or Obama, with a few party loyalists backing Hilary, some Hispanics behind Richardson, and die-hard anti-war folks favoring Kucinich.

Edwards seems to have the most acceleration of support in our area, where by the way many people saw all of the candidates at the California GOP convention.

While Hilary is not my favored candidate by any means, I will say that when I saw her speak in person I was more favorably impressed than I'd expected to be. I don't agree with some of her positions but felt she gave a stronger stump speech and sounded more sincere and compassionate than when I'd seen her in sedate TV interviews. I suspect her rise in the polls is the result of voters seeing her campaigning in her own right, in person or in lengthy uncut debates, rather than short soundbytes of her as Senator or First Lady.

[wyldwolf]

33. Liberty Belle -- I'm a big fan!

[Pachamama]

36. I am seeing the same thing here in Marin County, CA (north of San Francisco)

especially in regards to Edwards. For a long time, Obama was the one with lots of momentum with various people saying they liked Edwards. What I have observed is as the MSM has been playing the battle between Hillary and Obama out in the media, Edwards seems to be getting his message across more and more and more people are noticing him, including myself.

My measuring stick is what I hear people talking about, even amongst themselves. And if $$$$ is a measurement (sadly) of which candidate is going to be doing well, I have noticed at events I've attended, that the Hillary supporters are finding themselves in a minority and having to explain why people should be voting or raising money for her. I'm talking about the big money donors too. A big supporter locally (and on a national scale) of Hillary in my area Carmel Greenberg and her husband Eric, as well as Susi Thomkpins Buell (founder of Espirit) and her husband are probably the only die-hards that won't quit. But at events they have hosted, people like myself, who have given money to Hillary in the past for Senate and don't "dislike" her, just don't feel compelled by her and have a variety of issues with her and frankly find Obama and Edwards more to our liking. I find that to be a very big indicator of things, especially since everyone assumed that the support would all swing to Hillary from our area and its not. And when I thought it was just the area of affluence that I live in, I see the exact thing happening in the community around me and all over when I speak to people and overhear conversations. Even my father, a lifelong Republican who swears he will never vote GOP again until they go back to the party they once were, had said that he'd probably be voting Democrat if its Edwards or Obama - but definitely not if its Hillary.

And as far as Hillary is concerned, I know there has been a lot of bashing of her by Obama or Edwards supporters and vice versa. I have done no such thing. I don't hide whom I lean to (Obama and Edwards and my dream candidate of Al Gore), but I'm no Hillary hater. But I will state my apprehensions about her and also as I am in this thread my "surprise" and disbelief at results like the one in this original post that show she's leading in CA....

Maybe because they polled Republicans who are praying that she's the nominee? I don't know, I just am not buying it.....

[democratsin08]

21. nice

good news keeps rolling in

[Colobo]

37. So you are for Hillary?

[Broke Dad]

40. Polls

Polls that have a margin of error above 1% indicate a sample size that is small relative to the total data set. A lot of these polls that are being flipped around have margins of error of 4% to 4.5%. Second, most of these calls are to people with land lines during a set number of hours. What if the voters only phone is a cell phone? What if they don't even have a phone? What if they register between now and November 2008? Think Jessie Ventura who came out of nowhere to win the Minnesota governorship because Minnesota has same day voter registration. Third, how are the questions being framed? And how many non-hardcore political junkies are studying the candidates and the issues in July and August of 2007? Finally, based on the book, "What's Wrong With Kansas" I now never underestimate the ability of American voters to vote against their best interests based on image and irrelevant factors. W and his handler Karl Rove fooled enough people to "win" two presidential elections.

The two or three Hillary posters who keep the drumbeat up here may or may not speak for the great unwashed masses. We'll see how the AFL-CIO crowd reacts to Hillary's version of triangulation tonight.

[GreenTea]

44. It means zilch, nothing, zero, nada,..This is who the media (and the republican ie DLC are pushing).

Not a single vote has been cast....I won't believe any of this corporate media/poll hype until votes are counted....why would anyone be so sucked in to this obvious bullshit...Chris Matthews was pushing & cuming all over himself tonight...We know who the MSM wants....who owns them...these same owners want another republican administration and then another. Stop believing and letting the tube sway!