Rasmussen: Trend Reversal: Hillary Clinton Below 40% in Presidential Tracking Poll

[flpoljunkie]

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Trend Reversal: Clinton Below 40% in Presidential Tracking Poll

Wednesday, August 08, 2007


In the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, New York Senator Hillary Clinton has fallen below the 40% mark for the first time in more than two weeks. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Clinton at 38% and Illinois Senator Barack Obama at 27%. Clinton’s lead over Obama has declined for four straight days, ever since she made controversial comments defending lobbyists at the Yearly Kos bloggers’ convention over the weekend (see daily history). Just 24% of voters believe that Clinton would not be influenced by lobbyists.

However, while Clinton’s lead has gotten smaller in recent days, the decline follows several months of growing strength for Clinton. In fact, the most recent Rasmussen Reports weekly analysis of the Democratic race was titled “Clinton Rising, Obama Falling.” The reversal over the last few days merely puts the race back to where it was for most of June and July—Clinton in the mid-to-upper 30s and Obama in the mid-20s.Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards remains in third place with support from 13% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson tops the second tier of candidates at 4%.

As is always the case with daily tracking polls, it will take several more days to determine whether the most recent trend reflects an actual change in the race or is merely statistical noise.

In race for the Republican Presidential nomination, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is on top with 24% support followed closely by former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson at 23% Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney attracts support from 15% of Likely Republican Primary Voters placing him within double digits of the frontrunners. Arizona Senator John McCain is the only other candidate in double digits with 11% support. (see daily numbers). The most recent analysis of this race notes that it is easy to show why each of these leading candidates is not likely to win the Republican Primary. However, it is also likely that one of them will.

Giuliani leads Richardson in a general election match-up, but Thompson is essentially tied with the New Mexico governor. See summary of general election match-ups and other data for all Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/daily_presidential_tracking_poll__1

Edited to add link the Rasmussen Presidential Daily Tracking Poll...

On 8/3 Clinton was at 45% with Obama at 21%. On 8/8 Clinton was down 7 points to 38% and Obama up 6 points to 27%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

[Windy]

1. While I am not a Hillary supporter....

I don't put much stock in polls, especially at this point in the race. Further, telephone polls in and of themselves should be questioned in light of the fact that most people have caller ID and don't answer the telephone unless the recognize the number. As a result, I don't think that you truly get a cross section of the electorate responding to polls.

Remember what happened with Dean in the primary prior to the 2004 election? Polls had him way up and it turned out that Kerry won Iowa, etc...

Its not time to annoint anyone with the nomination..

[flpoljunkie]

2. It may take several days to determinde whether this "trend reflects an actual change in the race or

is merely statistical noise." -Rasmussen