Obama: Shocking poll result in Iowa - updated

[eweaver155]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/9/114716/5006?detail=f

Some very interesting news from a poll of Republican voters recently done by the University of Iowa.

Romney topped the poll with 26.9 percent of respondents saying they intend to support him at the January caucus. He is up 10 points since the last University of Iowa poll in late March. Giuliani was well behind at 11.3 percent, down 9 points, while McCain fell an astonishing 17.7 points to 3.2 percent, putting him in sixth place...

Perhaps most surprising of all, Obama actually finished third as the preferred general election candidate of registered Republicans, at 6.7 percent, behind Romney (21.8 percent), and Giuliani (10 percent), but ahead of Thompson (5.2 percent) and McCain (1.8 percent).

Now, I’ve never been a big advocate of national polling, or even state polling, this far out. But I have to say, Obama finishing THIRD in a poll of Republican voters makes a pretty remarkable statement.

Of course, it shows the overall weakness of the GOP field.

But, more importantly, it shows that much of the "concern" about how Obama will play in the middle of the country, and to conservatives, is not well placed.

I imagine the nay-sayers will be here soon to tell us that, well, he's only getting 6.7 of the vote. But, my god, it's a poll of Republicans asking who they're voting for in the primary. His name isn't even supposed to appear!

Updated: Per Dansac, below, here is the real money quote:

"Of the Democratic candidates, Obama shows the most crossover support in this poll," said Redlawsk, although he emphasized that Obama's number doesn't hold any meaning for the caucuses. "What we're seeing at this early stage, among people looking forward to the November 2008 election, is that Obama is the Democrat Republicans are most likely to vote for."

[MannyGoldstein]

1. I Think This Shows That Republicans Are Turning Away From Republicanism

And they're looking for some honesty.

[surfermaw]

89. I think of it more as republicans trying to pick the democrat candidate!

[RufusTFirefly]

2. My Republican Chicago cousin favors Obama

Frankly, when I heard that, that was a strike against him. Politically, she and I don't see eye to eye.

[eleny]

3. Can registered Iowa voters vote for anyone in their primeries?

We can here in Colorado. If you're registered with a party, you can vote in either the D or R primary.

[zulchzulu]

10. Nope. You can switch parties the day of the caucus to vote for your candidate

Then you can switch back the next day... Iowa has the party caucus format...different than a regular primary.

[IA_Seth]

12. We don't have a primary...

We hold a caucus. With a caucus you have to be a registered member of the party to participate. My guess is that although Obama does have lots of cross-over appeal, there wont be many Republicans that will actually stand up and caucus for him on caucus night. I am pretty sure there rules are the same as ours, and that to be viable (with delegates assigned to move to the next stage) a candidate must have at least 15% support at that particular caucus site.

[zulchzulu]

14. In Iowa, a Republican could switch parties to caucus and switch back later

I was discussing this very subject in Dubuque last weekend with some Iowa folks.

[IA_Seth]

17. They could...

Of course I offer no data, but I don't see it happening enough to make any measurable difference. I know it happens though (and Dems do the same actually).

[Debi]

86. Dude - you can switch parties that night to caucus for a candidate

in fact republican lawyers showed up at our caucus to caucus for Edwards (and yes, they took home a change of registration form to be filled out and mailed back to the County Auditor so they'd only have to be Democrats for a day).

I know the Obama campaign is reaching out to republican caucus attendees so maybe he'll get some cross-over.

I also know that this is another one of those U of I polls we saw in the 2006 campaign - and not very reliable.

:hi:

Where the hell have you been? Did you move out of the Iowa Forum??? x(

[IA_Seth]

88. Haha..no I'm still here!

It's crazy with a newborn and a new job, but I still read the Iowa stuff, even if I have nothing more to offer the conversation.

All of these Iowa polls seem crazy to me, but what do I know? I DO know that I've never been polled. Ever. With exception to the focus group I participated in, no one wants my opinion! I think it has a lot to do with the fact that my cell phone is my only phone.

[Fridays Child]

4. Something to be filed under "Things That Make You Go Hmmmm."

Was Diebold equipment used anywhere in this polling process? Just wondering.

[wyldwolf]

5. Let me point something out...

A double standard, if you will.

When it is revealed on DU that Republicans back Hillary, it's because they want her to be the Democratic candidate because "she'll be the easiest to beat."

When it is revealed on DU that Republicans back Obama, it's because Republicans want him to be the nominee because they've seen the light and really really want to vote for him.

[Cameron27]

7. Yep, that's exactly right.

[beastieboy]

9. Excellent point.

[zulchzulu]

13. There are two different views on that

Many Republicans would want Clinton as the Democratic nominee to run against and there are also probably some Republicans that might vote for her because they support her.

There are Republicans who would vote for Obama because they like him, not because they necessarily want to run against him.

My view anyway...

[wyldwolf]

18. a view not ground in reality and lacking any supporting evidence.

[ccpup]

20. The Republicans

I know on the Upper East Side, down on Wall Street and in Los Angeles would vote for Hillary because 1) the Republican field is laughably, almost embarrassingly weak and 2) they believe she has the experience, the maturity and the intelligence to clean up *'s mess. Has nothing to do with "we can beat her" or "we think she's one of us", but more to do with "she has the stomach and strong back to clean up this huge mess and she wouldn't be a bad President". If they had to choose a Dem, it seems to be her right now.

At least that's what they tell me the VERY few times we venture into politics (which is not that often, believe me).

[hijinx87]

23. wait a minute.

republicans like YOUR guy because he is just that good, and they
want to vote for him in the general.

but republicans like MY gal because they want to set us up for a
big fall in november?

and you know this . . . . how? via mind reading?

[zulchzulu]

25. As I've mentioned a number of times before...

I work with someone with a lot of GOP cred from working on GOP campaigns, working for GOP governors and does media training for GOP politicians and lobbyists. He also goes to RNC batcave meetings in DC and elsewhere and he has told me exactly what I just said. The Republicans would greatly enjoy a Clinton nomination to get their base back with the program and also have them come out in droves to vote in what are otherwise GOP candidates in races left for dead. So it not only gets the base out, it also helps other Republicans in other races.

You can believe me or not. You can deny it. It doesn't matter to me. I've heard it from someone who is in the GOP trenches and it makes sense from their standpoint.

Do the Republicans like Clinton? Would they want two of them back in the White House? Guess the answer...

[hijinx87]

26. I don't believe it for a second.

claiming insider info of GOP strategy sounds too much like
telling the hottie at the end of the bar that you work for
the CIA.

just too damn convenient.

[Name removed]

41. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[wyldwolf]

37. No, you listen to Sean Hannity - hence the constant rightwing spew

[zulchzulu]

43. Hee hee...pushing out the "Sean Hannity" button so soon!

:rofl:

Wow.

If anyone gives you a valid reason why the Republicans are licking their chops at the opportunity to run against the Clintons, you pull out the "you listen to Sean hannity" garbage. Next thing you know, you'll call me a "misogynist" or a "hater"...

Being that you are a declared paid Hill Shiller, I see how your little brain works. You must have a huge stash of Hillary stickers in your closet since nobody wants that crap.

You aren't exactly doing a good job either. I'm glad you're getting paid by their campaign...I'd have you fired.

[wyldwolf]

51. he's your boy, not mine

And like him, you invent things and call them "valid."

[zulchzulu]

64. Is that all ya got? If I don't want a Clinton candidacy, I'm a Hannityhead?

You truly are of questionable opinion.

If a discussion doesn't cater to your narrow view of politics and god forbid, dares to tread on how your preferred candidate's electibility might perhaps be in question based on research and opinions I respect from a political standpoint, you accuse me of being "for Hannity", "a hater", a "misoginist" or whatever moolackian gibberish you can grubble out of your piehole.

Give it a rest.

[wyldwolf]

65. if you push trademark Hannity talking points, you're a Hannity head.

[zulchzulu]

66. That is insipid and sophmoric

Are you like 12 or something?

[wyldwolf]

68. Unfortunately for you, it's true. Hannity talking points = Hannity fan

[zulchzulu]

71. If Hannity wants her as the nominee, then the point the GOP wants her is proof

Checkmate.

You're out of your league.

You appear to think the Republicans don't want her as the nominee, when in fact by accusing me of being a "Hannityhead" for that opinion and obvious political logic, you have proven to yourself that the Republican want her candidacy.

[wyldwolf]

72. do you often start spewing completely irrelevant jibberish? I guess you do.. Just like Hannity!

Checkmate.

You're out of your league.

[zulchzulu]

75. Cripes... back on the Ol' Iggy for you, junior...

Hint: If I don't respond to your smarmy BS, it's because you're not worth responding to...

Bye!
:hi:

[wyldwolf]

76. bye, Hannityzulu

[hijinx87]

39. ok, just for the sake of argument . . .

if you really are wired into the rethug strategy, what else
do you know besides this tantalizing insight on hillary?

surely you have more useful information for us. please share.

[zulchzulu]

44. Are you serious...?

You mean you don't get it? You don't actually think Rupert Murdoch has given fundraisers for Hillary Clinton because he likes her? Do you even know who Rupert Murdoch is?

[wyldwolf]

52. why did you avoid that question?

[zulchzulu]

69. I had you on Ignore...now I'm back to enjoy your banter...

Can you answer a question. Did Rupert Murdoch have fundraisers for Senator Clinton? Yes or no.

Perhaps you don't know who Rupert Murdoch is. Yes, he's given money to campaigns over the years...but fundraisers? Last I checked, people like Sean Hannity and Bill O'Reilly are on his payroll.

Need a picture? Oh, OK...

[wyldwolf]

73. I didn't ask the question. The person you were talking with did, LOL!

[hijinx87]

78. that wasn't the question

you don't have a "source" inside the rethuglican party
any more than any of the rest of us do. it's all a big
fiction you have created to give your "hillary is the
republican's candidate" case false credibility.

I think you should stop trotting out the "republican
insider" story now that it has been demonstrated to be
false.

the atmosphere in this forum is difficult enough with
the honest arguments.

[wyldwolf]

53. his inside line to the GOP is the Sean Hannity show

[zulchzulu]

70. Even if I watched that show (I don't) my point is indeed made...

If you think that people like Sean Hannity want Clinton as the nominee and I have told you that I have had conversations with someone (who hates Hannity by the way) who goes to RNC batcave meetings in DC and elsewhere and says the Republicans want her as the nominee, then my point is proven to be correct.

Checkmate.

[wyldwolf]

74. only one other person pushes the info you do - Sean Hannity

[hijinx87]

79. you are simply asserting what you cannot prove

"my point is proven. checkmate." :eyes:

good heavens. this has the absurd comedic qualities of
Gomer Pyle's "citizen arrests" on the andy griffith show.

let me pull out the operational portion of your "case".

if you think that . . . and I have told you that . . . who says that . . . then I am proven correct.

don't you see how tortured that is? it's just impossible to believe anything
hung on such a silly scaffolding.

[hijinx87]

81. your source keeps changing, by the way

upstream in this thread, he was

" . . . work with someone with a lot of GOP cred from working on GOP campaigns, working for GOP governors and does media training for GOP politicians and lobbyists."

a very influential individual within the upper echelon of the rethuglican party, indeed.
but now, a scant few posts later,

"I have had conversations with someone (who hates Hannity by the way) who goes to RNC batcave meetings in DC and elsewhere . . ."

your contact with mr. mystery rethuglican has diminished, and his stature has been
reduced to that of insignificant bystander. and hating hannity isn't even worth
mentioning, unless it is also part of your fiction designed specifically to defeat
WW's proposition that this all came from hannity in the first place.

[hijinx87]

80. has anyone considered the possibility that it's a big fnord?

hannity claims that hillary is the republicans' candidate
of choice just to erode her support withing the democratic
party because they are actually terrified that they will
get their ass kicked by another clinton in two consecutive
elections?

it makes at least as much sense, and is supported by exactly
as much evidence (absolutely none) as the argument that hillary
is the republican's candidate of choice.

[surfermaw]

34. You got it

I believe republican money has been in play with our candidates.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

16. This is, what? One of 120412984^12 double standards held these days on DU?

[William769]

19. Hypocrisy abounds here, doesn't it?

[Dawgs]

21. Spot on - looks like you're finally getting it wyldwolf.

[hijinx87]

24. note to self : read threads FIFO

I made the same point, although not quite as well, downstream in
this thread.

[killbotfactory]

28. The difference is Hillary is being backed by republican mouthpieces and pundits

not necessarily republican voters, as in this poll.

[wyldwolf]

36. and the voters will follow their marching orders.

[killbotfactory]

38. There are no marching orders

[wyldwolf]

54. so, you're stating with a straight face that the GOP leadership doesn't give marching orders?

[killbotfactory]

60. Marching orders for what?

For 6% of republicans in an Iowa to choose Obama if a pollster calls?

[wyldwolf]

62. to vote for Republicans

[zulchzulu]

45. Marching orders? Like what lemmings do?

I see your point.

Sorry, I'm not a lemming.

I'd imagine that there will be a LOT of Democrats who will not vote for Clinton under any circumstances if she is the nominee. You can count on that.

Bye.

[wyldwolf]

55. so, you're stating with a straight face that the GOP leadership doesn't give marching orders?

[jenmito]

42. There's a big difference between RW THs with an agenda and voters

The Repubs. on TV seem to want Hillary to win so they can run against her and win in their opinion. Real Repub. voters who support Hillary do so because I'm sure they want her to win and it seems like there are a lot fewer Repub. voters who like her than who like Obama.

[rucky]

57. top-down vs. bottom-up support.

no bottom-up jokes, please. okay, maybe a few.

[Skip Intro]

61. Great point. n/t

[Indy_Dem_Defender]

85. Let me point out something as well

The Double standard your implying (Hillary is a woman, Obama is is Black) doesn't factor into the equation here. No matter what anyone thinks their is going to be a segment of the republican voting block that won't vote for either because of those factors.

The Factor that does come into play when you look at the situation that Hillary Clinton is a know commodity. Her name is apart of pop culture and a household word from being in the public eye for the past 15 years. This isn't a level Obama or Edwards have reached yet, neither have the name value of her to voters which is good for her, but neither can even come close to the negatively she can generate which is good for them.

The problem arise because of the level negatively she can generate. The Right wingers spent the 90's bashing the Clinton's on all media formats. This generated a level of hatred for the Clinton's from right wing voters that might be only surpassed by the level of hatred that left wing voters have for the Bush family. This level of hatred you would have thought would subside a bit with her vote on Iraq, but she is still the same Hillary in most right wingers eyes. What this did do was erode some of the democratic base she would have had running for president. Now she has not only Republicans that despise her, but a portion of Democrats as well.

Take a second to ponder this, take the possibility voting fraud factor out of the equation and think of Jeb Bush running for President in 2008. If Jeb announced tomorrow, you would see 25 threads on here within the hour declaring a victory for whomever is the democratic candidate in 2008.

[trashcanistanista]

6. Good for him!

Hillary is trying for crossover votes as well. To get a landslide, we need crossovers.

[zulchzulu]

8. Republicans would have to switch parties to vote in Democratic caucus in Iowa

Some may actually do that. They can switch party affiliation on the day of the caucus and switch back the next day.

[Ethelk2044]

27. I have seen some people on other blogs stating they are going to

change party affiliation because they want to vote for Obama.

[mitchtv]

11. Boy, If they said "Hillary"

" See, the Republicans want Hillary cause she is just one of them!!!!" would be the DU refrain. But BO ? well he suits the Middle. different story in his case, besides Hillary showed cleavage .

[Dawgs]

22. Well, the Republicans I know in Georgia would be okay with him, and..

They can't stand Hillary.

You Hillary supporters can keep pretending that the Republicans don't hate her, but they do. If she gets the nom we are screwed.

Listen to right-wing talk radio for five minutes to see how much they hate Hillary.

[surfermaw]

32. Borned and raised in Georgia, I doubt that

Georgia is one of the last places that Oaboma could win in.....

[zulchzulu]

49. Obama is kicking everyone's ass in campaign contributions in Georgia

An article talks about how Obama is getting lots of contributions from all over the state. It's early, but to think Obama won't do well in Georgia is not really being very informed about what it happening.

http://onlineathens.com/stories/062407/opinion_20070624033.shtml

The Federal Election Commission Web site www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/mapApp.do gives this breakdown (as of June 21) for Georgia.

Sen. Clinton: $81,926 from a handful of contributors, many of them old-line Democrats closely connected to the Bill Clinton presidency. She had only 39 contributors with metro Atlanta zip codes.

Former Sen. John Edwards: $376,845, also from well-known Democrats and a smattering of attorneys. Much of Edwards' Georgia money came from 147 metro Atlanta contributors.

Sen. Barack Obama: $471,271 from every corner of the state, with the bulk coming from 306 big-name African-American contributors in Atlanta.

Translation: Obama blows the socks off his Democratic rivals in Georgia because he has attracted a solid wall of affluent African-American support. Georgia's Super-Duper Tuesday presidential primary is still seven months away, and trends may shift.

[Ethelk2044]

50. Not with the African American Community in Atlanta and surrounding

areas

[rufus dog]

84. and ...

Could Hillary win GA, hell no! Edwards, Kucinich, Biden, Richardson?

[mitchtv]

77. You Hillary supporters???

:rofl: Read my post a little more carefully. Believe me I know how much she's hated , Today I support Kucinich. But i don't suffer trashing Democrats by anyone

[elizm]

15. Sent to Keith Olbermann... nt

[AlCzervik]

29. Gee i thought HRC was the GOP's favorite democrat.

[killbotfactory]

30. If you listen to republicans in the media, she is.

And they'll keep that up until she is nominated, and then turn the next election into a depressing rerun of the 90's.

On the other hand, I don't think these Iowa republicans are colluding with each other to promote Obama.

[surfermaw]

31. Not suprising Rep. would say they would vote for BO

Wouldn't you think the republicans would like us to vote for a man they can beat in 2008, The Young man is something for us to be proud of , however he is lacking in experience for a time like today, we need someone in the office that can clean up the mess made by republicans, and that alone is going to take 4 years,

[Ethelk2044]

33. No they want you to vote for a Woman they can beat. Especially

with all the flip flopping she is doing.

[elizm]

59. Umm...

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[TwilightGardener]

35. I knew he would have the most crossover appeal--I've been saying

this for months. It bears out among Indies and Repubs I know personally. They simply respect him, even if they disagree with some of his more progressive stands.

[Tellurian]

40. So, the obvious is never taken at face value... it's the spin that wins..

Republicans "obviously" hate Hillary because she WINS!

Republicans "obviously" will crossover and vote for Obama because he's their man!

[Alamom]

46. Everything Obama says comes back and bites him. Looks like he's Repuke-Light, now.

I'm beginning to feel sorry for him.
Someone needs to tell him, you have to watch those words, they come back to bite you every time.

[zulchzulu]

47. Wow. A Clinton fan lecturing about how stuff comes back and bites someone...

:rofl:

Don't even get me started...

[Ethelk2044]

48. Let's see Obama said we should not go to war. He also said it was

the wrong war. He said we should push Pakistan to go after Osama. Hell Bush came out today and stated Pakistan needs to push up their game. I don't see it. Where did he go wrong? He was right. Now people are beginning to see he is right.

[harun]

58. They like it because it goes to show he has backbone and

balls. The debate the other night when Dodd and Clinton were tag teaming him showed this. He told the crowd they have the right to hear some of the foreign policy debate and Dodd and Clinton hee hawed on how they shouldn't talk about this or that and Obama said screw it I am talking about it. The crowd loved it and so did I.

[illinoisprogressive]

56. Guess who is most electable and will bring in more new voters...Gobama!

[Apollo11]

63. I would be happy to see Obama on the ticket in 2008, 2012, 2016 & 2020

Obama would make a great Vice-President and chair of the Senate (I am thinking with someone like Al Gore or Wes Clark in the Whitehouse).

I am sure he will make a great President from January 2017 thru 2025.

Obama is young and full of energy. Let's have 16 years of Obama !! B-)

[Rambis]

67. Republicans fear John Edwards

so they will vote, back or fund anyone that might take him out. Edwards is rich, good looking and talks about poor people with conviction. He embodies everything republicans strive for, wealth,status, etc etc etc just one big problem he is a democrat.

[LWolf]

82. It's probably that pro "war on terra" thing. n/t

[rufus dog]

83. comparing to the 2004 Presidential Election

Bush 751,987
Kerry 741,898

Lets say Obama only got 3% of the repubs to switch.

3% of 751,987 is 22,560. And the State is flipped from Red to Blue. A pick up of 7 EVs

Using the same numbers in NM and Ohio means another 25 EVs and the Presidency.

That is very conservative and assumes equal voter turn out. Some Dems may truly not vote for Obama based upon racism. But I am sure all of the Hillary supporters would stand behind the Dem nominee.

[fujiyama]

87. Impressive

Obama has more cross party appeal than many think.

I think there are many suburbanites that have voted republican (you know the typical McMansion dwelling, SUV driving types) that also are tired of endless war...and they really don't care about gay marriage or abortion, OR RACE either.