Cattle Call 2004: 10/29 :evilgrin:
by kos
Wed Oct 29, 2003 at 12:07:24 PM EDT
Last rankings: 1) Dean, 2) Clark, 3) Gephardt, 4) Edwards, 5) Kerry, and 6) Lieberman.
1. Howard Dean
Back in the lead in most national polls, extending his lead in NH, and holding tight with Gep in Iowa. Average debate performance considered a win for him, as the front-runner "wins" unless he's knocked down. Just got slammed hard by Al Sharpton (enraged apparently by Jesse Jackson Jr.'s endorsement of Dean), earning Dean vocal support from prominent African Americans like Donna Brazille (I'm calling this tussle a draw). Finally picks up a union endorsement, though the big one (SEIU) is still up in the air.
2. Dick Gephardt
More polls showing a narrow Iowa lead. Getting much better press. Hints that the establishment want him as the "anti-Dean". Probably has had the most consistently good debate performances of all the candidates.
That said, Gep and Clark are nearly interchangeable at this point. Gephardt actually leads in a couple of early primary states (even if they are home-turf states), which is more significant than Clark's national poll performances. But the most important factor for the number 2 slot is Gep's ground operation. His wide-ranging union support gives him a politically experienced ground army, ready-made and in place to promote Gep's efforts, while Clark is still putting the pieces together.
3. Wesley Clark
Seems to be back on the trail. His zingers against Bush yesterday were political gold. Still, he lost valuable time, while his campaign operation is still being built out (does he have a campaign manager yet?).
4. John Edwards
His supporters trot out "Turtle and Hare" analogies, and that's fine. Edwards has been a turtle. The question is whether the hares (Dean, Clark, and maybe even Gephardt) will decide to kick back and take a nap before crossing the finish line.
South Carolina still seems to be in Edwards' control, which means Clark will have to lay some artillery Edwards' way sometime soon. Watch these two candidates, as they are one of the three marquee matchups in the early goings. (The other two are Dean/Gep in Iowa, and Dean/Kerry in NH.)
5. John Kerry
Things are looking increasingly distressed for the guy. His latest debate performances have been solid, but without the breakout moment to help regain ground on Dean. Thus he's forced to go increasingly negative, which doesn't seem to be working with the party loyalists who will elect our nominee.
6. Joe Lieberman
His national poll numbers seem to have stabilized, though he's no longer ahead in any state with a primary before mid-March. Has gotten off a few good anti-Bush zingers, but they smack of too-little too-late.
7. The others
Still background static.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2003/10/29/12724/618