Back to the Status Quo (Hillary reasserts NH lead)

[rinsd]

Back To The Status Quo? In late July an American Research Group poll on the Democratic race in New Hampshire won a lot of attention after showing Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both tied at 31 percent support. Coupled with a similar poll result from Iowa, reporters eagerly portrayed the race between the two as tightening heading into fall.

But a couple of polls released since then may have thrown some cold water on that analysis. The first survey, a joint project between Democratic firm Hart Research and Republican pollster McLaughlin and Associates, released Aug. 10, showed Clinton with a wide lead in New Hampshire, with 36 percent support, compared to 19 percent for Obama. A new Rasmussen Reports survey released today shows similar results, with Clinton at 37 percent to Obama’s 22 percent.

ARG has a pretty good reputation, but looking at the all the numbers we've seen over the months, including the two most recent surveys, its poll looks like an outlier. Whether that's truly the case will only be known for sure once more polls are released — and have no doubt, there will be plenty of them. — David Miller

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/08/15/politics/purehorserace/main3170418.shtml

[Connie_Corleone]

1. Status quo. Nuff said. eom