So, Whose Base Would Hillary Rally More?

[William769]

The other day, in his AP story exploring the concerns among some "Democratic leaders" that Hillary Clinton will be a drag on congressional races around the country -- especially in red districts -- if she wins the nomination, Ron Fournier said:


say the former first lady may be too polarizing for much of the country. She could jeopardize the party's standing with independent voters and give Republicans who otherwise might stay home on Election Day a reason to vote, they worry.

In other words, as Andy Arnold, chairman of the Greenville, S.C., Democratic Party, put it:


"I think Hillary is someone who could drive folks on the other side out to vote who otherwise wouldn't."

Certainly Clinton does have extraordinarily high unfavorables among Republicans -- the latest Gallup Poll has her at -71 net favorability. But the other side of this coin is an equally strong net favorability among Democrats: +71%. And current party ID numbers show Democrats with a 15 or so advantage, including leaners. So, couldn't a Hillary Clinton nomination just as easily rally our base FOR her and, by extension, all Democrats on the ticket? MJ Rosenberg at TPM Cafe argues that's just what will happen and for a very simple reason:


She drives Republicans nuts.

She causes them to lose their sh*t.

And, when they attack her...she causes pretty much all Democrats to want to rally behind her.

And the attacks have already begun. This week's attack dog was Karl Rove, who went on none other than Rush Limbaugh to go after Clinton:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/8/16/51122/6704

[Larkspur]

1. She won't rally me to support her

[AnotherGreenWorld]

2. Me either.

[aquart]

7. If Hillary is the Democratic candidate, you'll vote Republican?

Is that your pledge?

[Dawgs]

18. I wouldn't lift a finger to help her, and it will be hard to vote for her.

I don't care how the Republicans feel. If the Democrats are dumb enough to nominate her I might give up on the Democratic party altogether.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

3. Base?

The GOP's, definitely. She makes them apoplectic, which means they would work harder to get out.

I don't think Hillary herself inspires the Dem base much. I think they are MUCH more inspired by any potential opening on the USC.

[saracat]

4. She will rally more GOP against her.Voting "against " a candidate has always been

a more powerful incentive to voters, especially the GOP.Add that to the fact more GOP vote then Dems and it spells trouble for a Clinton candidacy.

[davidwparker]

5. GOP base

[jobycom]

6. I reject the opinion that we should choose the Democrat the republicans hate the least.

If we choose Clinton, it should be because we like her. If we reject her, it should be because we like someone else more. I'm just as disgusted by the morons who thing she's a conservative as I am by the morons who say "She will make the Republicans really, really mad and they might vote against us."

Newsflash. The Republicans hate us. They will rally against any of our candidates in equal numbers, whether it be the Clinton they've built so many wild fantasies about, or Obama, who will be slammed with the most disgusting underground race campaign we've ever seen, or Edwards, who will be called both a flip-flopper and a communist. Whomever we choose, the Republicans will slander them until their base is foaming at the mouth and from other orifices.

We've tried this "Let's sneak the candidate the candidate they don't hate past them, and maybe they'll forget there's an election" before, and it hasn't worked yet. Clinton, the first Clinton president, went right at them, despite being vilified by both sides. Whether it's Clinton, Obama, Edwards, or someone else, I'll choose the candidate that pisses them off the most, because that's the candidate who's doing something right.

[jenmito]

13. I like someone else better...AND

the Repub. base isn't "pissed off" at her the most-they're "pissed off" at her HUSBAND which, by default, gets transferred to her. It doesn't mean she's doing something right-it only means they have the most dirt on her and Bill so they hope to run against her. It's not that the Repubs. will "forget there's an election" if another Dem. wins the nomination, but they probably wouldn't be as motivated to go to the polls to vote against Obama or Edwards.

[jobycom]

17. The goofy-ass meme that they hope to run against her needs to be purged from all thinking people

Even the slightest reflection will prove that. She has the most money, the most invulnerability to their slanders (since she's been through it all before), and the hardest record to attack. Obama's been in national politics two years, Edwards is a one term senator whose position changes as often as his hair cut, and whose own running mate didn't trust him.

They want Hillary to run like they wanted Bill to run.

And they will be motivated as much for Obama or Edwards. Whoever we nominate, the Republicans will slander them until they are Satan incarnate, and the base will vote. The idea that they will stay home for Obama or Edwards is dumb.

If you don't like Clinton, either because you just don't or because you've drunk all the Koolaid Newsmax and Drudge served up about her being moderate or conservative, don't vote for her. But don't pretend it's because the Republicans want her to run, or think she'll be easier to beat. Quite the opposite--they wouldn't be working so hard to make you think she's Republican-lite if they wanted her.

[jenmito]

19. Don't insult me-I don't drink newsmax or Drudge koolaid...I don't read them...

I know what I see and hear from Repubs. and Dems. The Repubs. obviously have dirt on Hillary that they're saving 'til she hopefully (in their dreams) wins the Dem. nomination.

I'm not "pretending" it's because the Republicans want her to run, or think she'll be easier to beat. I truly believe it.

[jobycom]

21. Then don't be so naive.

The Republicans don't need dirt on anyone, they make it up, as they did against Kerry, Gore, Bill Clinton, whomever. They've got the same strategy against anyone running. The issue isn't whether they will smear the candidates, the issue is whether the candidate has the ability to overcome the smears.

And it doesn't matter whether the Koolaid comes in bottles clearly labeled "Courtesy of Karl Rove," that's where it came from.

[jenmito]

22. I'm NOT naive. YOU are if you think Hillary won't energize the Repub. base more

than any other Dem. They have so many years of video of her saying different things. They have Bill's record of infidelity (which infuriated their base, which is also why I doubt they'll nominate Giuliani). They have lingering hatred which they don't have for Obama-MY candidate.

(I don't drink ANY koolaid).

[jbonkowski]

8. Everyone seems to be forgetting the "swing" voters

The great big mushy undecided middle. They are about a third of the electorate.

Whichever candidate grabs a bigger chunk of the middle wins.

Clinton may drive up the R turnout, but if she grabs a majority of the middle she wins, even if the D base doesn't have as huge a turnout. There are only a small percentage of D voters who absolutely won't vote for her if she is the nominee.

Clinton is, I believe, so middle of the road that she will get a huge percentage of the swing voters.

I also think that a lot of women who don't normally vote will do so because she is in the race. This will offset the small portion of D voters who will not vote at all because they can't stand her.

Of course, uncounted votes and twelve hours lines for D voters can throw the election, no matter who is running.

jim

[sampsonblk]

12. Base base base base base

You can't campaign toward swing voters. They are nearly impossible to target. People are "swing" voters for a million reasons. If you want to win an election, target your base and focus on turnout. If your campaign is best, the swing voters will come along - once they wake up and figure out who's running and what the election is about.

[Dr Fate]

26. Can Hillary or any DEM get "swing voters" to donate money or volunteer for campaigns?

I'm not discounting what you are saying- but it is equally dangerous to assume that the base will donate to and work hard for just any candidate with a D behind their names.

It's not just about what lever a member of the base pulls in the voting booth- it is also about the degree of support (Monetary & physical labor) provided by the base.

If the base is not energized or worse, feels like the candidate disagrees with them on major issues(Sorry, no ABB this time) then the DEM candidates are going to have some challenges.

[Enrique]

9. I think Hillary hatred is on the way out

people are going to question why they hate her.

There really is no rational reason to hate her. They hate her because of the RW propaganda campaign of the Clinton era. They hate her because certain people told them to hate her.

People are going to start thinking about who it is exactly that told them to hate her.

They will realize it's the same people that told them that Clinton was ruining America, and they will recall how much worse America got when Clinton left office.

It's the same people who told them Bush is strong, and recall that 9/11 happened on his watch. They will recall all of the

They will realize it's the same people that told them that we would be greeted as liberators.

It's the same people who told them the GOP is the party of family values, while everyone has lost count of the republican sex scandals.

It's the same people who told them that the world would end if Nancy Pelosi becomes Speaker. Then they'll notice that Pelosi is just a conventional politican and not the Great Satan.

These people aren't going to vote for Hillary, but they won't fear her the way they once did. They'll be demoralized on election day 2008 and Hillary hatred will have become too feeble a force to get them out to vote.

[Dr Fate]

25. I would love to see Hillary say exactly what you just said.

Everything you say rings with truth-but will Hillary be able or willing to present these blunt, factual statments to the public?

I dont really believe that the vast majority of the public will come to ANY conclusion about ANYTHING to do with political perceptions unless someone with leadership skills walks them through it.

I would like her a lot more if I saw her as someone who CHALLENGED current popular/media perceptions as opposed to someone who goes along with media perceptions.

(2 examples- the media perception was that we should go to war, so Hill. went along with it instead of arguing for the truth. Same withthe "Kerry hates the troops" meme- she went along with media manufactured perception instead of the truth.)

Maybe when it comes to her own skin she will indeed rebut false presumptions instead of reinfocing them- we will see.

I think if Hillary SAID what you just said, she could make that happen, if the strategy is to wait for people to figure that out, we are in trouble.

[CTD]

10. I will never vote for her. If she is our nominee, I'll stay home.

If I wanted another Republican president, I'd be over at FreeRepublic.

Why ANYONE here supports her is a mystery I may never understand.

[William769]

11. Oy vey.

Stay home. Then if by a slim chance someone like Bush gets in again, we won't have to listen to you bitch because you would have no reason to. :eyes:

[CTD]

14. She *IS* "someone like Bush".

She supports most of what Bush has done.

[William769]

15. If you actually believe that then I feel sorry for you. NT

[CTD]

16. More condescension from the Hillary crowd...

I don't want your pity.

I want an actual Democrat in the White House to start undoing the damage of the past 7 years.

I don't need some DINO nuking Iran.

[rinsd]

24. "She supports most of what Bush has done." BS.

[Dr Fate]

28. Sorry, but the war is still a major, all-encompasing issue that touches & concerns all other issues.

Most of what Bush has done involves the war, and Hillary supported him through much of it (She voted "yes" instead of "no" when asked by Bush for authorization to invade, for example), until it became unpopular to do so.

[rinsd]

41. IOW its the ransititve Property of Hillary Hating where she's blamed for everything

[Dr Fate]

42. Did I say something false? Hillary hating? Is that like when the media accused me of "Bush hating?"

I dont hate Hillary, I just disagree with her "yes" vote for the war- and I disagree with (and frankly, I dont believe) her excuses for that "yes" vote.

I was once told by conservatives and the media that I was a "Bush hater" whose opinions-and even factual statements- were merely irrational by-products of my "blind hatred."

LOL- I didnt buy it then either.

Again, I dont hate Hillary, I just strongly disagree with her on THE major issue of my lifetime.

[ruggerson]

44. I've said it before

You will be partly responsible for every women who dies in a back alley abortion.

You will be partly responsible for every person with MS, ALzheimers, Parkinson's, etc who suffers without a cure because of you.

You will be partly responsible for every minority kid who does not get to attend the college of his/her choice.

You will be partly responsible for people not being able to redress their government or corporations who have injured them.

THe list is endless.

The fact is that Hillary will appoint progressives to the Supreme Court. That is a fact. It is reality. The Republican will appoint activist rightwingers. By you staying home, you are affecting the country for GENERATIONS, not just for the next four years.

I do hope you can live with yourself.

[AtomicKitten]

20. If anybody thinks the GOP Wrecking Machine will treat -

Hill worse than any other possible nominee, they haven't been paying attention.

Fact: It doesn't matter who the nominee is. The a-holes are already excavating dirt on all of them and will do and say whatever it takes to win.

[Dr Fate]

27. It's true. The difference is with Hill, the perception already exists.

Witht he Clintons, Repubs really dont have to make up anything new, all they have to do is remind the people of what they already made up (or, remind them of things based on truth, in some unfortunate instances)

[AtomicKitten]

30. that's true -- it will be a hysterical rehash of the 1990s

I, for one, don't want to make it that easy and convenient for the Republicans.

[Dr Fate]

32. You might as well be prepared for the dancing bee and the Blind Melon guitar intro.

It's going to be like a bad episode of "I Love(?) the 90's" every night.

The way you dont make it easy for them in that respect is to support a different candidate besides Hill.

[AtomicKitten]

35. deja vu

[Forkboy]

34. I'd agree with that normally,but we've seen 15 years of hate from the Right towards her.

Hate that goes beyond the typical hate they show for Democrats,into this bizarre,visceral psychological area that isn't normal.Yes,they'll blast the hell out of any of our candidates,but the blasting at Hillary will gain more traction among them than it would towards any other candidate.That's not meant as knock on her.It an admission that a major chunk of the Right seems to think she's the Anti-christ,where the other Dem candidates are just minions. :)

I honestly don't see how anyone who has watched the Right go after both her and Bill over the last fifteen years can deny the pathological hatred directed towards Bill and Hillary and think that same pathology exists in the same numbers towards Obama or Edwards.Any Dem will stir up a good portion of hate and attacks.Hillary is poking the hornet's nest.That in itself wouldn't bother me that much,but coupled with the apparent dislike for her on the left,it seems a recipe for disaster.It's not just left Democrats like me,but Independants as well that she has to win over.Some will come around to her,but a lot wont.I personally won't vote her because I live in Mass and can vote for the people I actually like without holding my nose,but if it was going to be close (it won't be) I'd swallow my bile and vote for her just because of the SCOTUS thing,but I'm not sure how many others with bite that bullet again.

I still think she can win,don't get me wrong.The dislike for anything Republican is so strong that I honestly think any of our candidates could be very competitive.But I think she,and a couple others, make it closer than it needs to be,and for some reason close elections don't seem to go our way lately.

[AtomicKitten]

36. It is most certainly pathologic -

and I agree it would be like smacking a hornet's nest with a baseball bat. But then again look at the slime trail the Swift Boat Liars left. That attack on Kerry was beyond disgusting. I put nothing beyond the GOP because they are prepared to do and say whatever it takes to win.

I hope the Dems are prepared to get down and fugly with the GOP.

I also agree we need a landslide, a margin so wide all the GOP dirty tricks will be for naught.

[Dr Fate]

23. The same base that Harold Ford & Joe Lieberman rallied?

Minus the Republicans that voted for either...Whoever that is.

[Blue_In_AK]

29. I don't feel like rallying behind her.

Sorry.

[Dr Fate]

31. I dont really feel like working on a campaign with people who openly despise the grass-roots.

It is going to be really tough to work under/with these DLC people who trashed me as "crazy, far left nut roots" when I did "radical" things such as opposing a war based on lies or supporing Ned Lamont (D) over Lieberman (I)

If Hillary wins the nom, are we really going to have to work under conservatives-er, I mean "centrists" who "used to" support the war and "used to" support Joe Lieberman?

I sure hope not, but that seems to be the case...

[Blue_In_AK]

39. I hear ya! n/t

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[zulchzulu]

37. ..."pretty much all Democrats to want to rally behind her"...

When?

Seriously, when?

When the Repugs go after Clinton now, are we supposed to support her? They are just doing with some muffled roars what they would do full force if she was the nominee... that's exactly why many don't want her as the nominee because she will only instill the Repug base AND not deliver on the Independent vote... AND make Democrats who would be easy victors now have to go out and fight against the onslaught of Repugs rarin' to vote against her and voting for their stale Repug candidate in the process.

If you see a bee hive that's fairly dormant, do you go over and smack it with a baseball bat? That's what a Clinton nomination would be IMHO.

[Dr Fate]

38. Many DEMS will rally for her about as much as Harold Ford & the DLC supports Lamont or Dean.

Which is the bare minimum or not at all.They supported Lieberman (I) instead-and constantly attack Dean as DNC chairman.

If Hillary wins the nom and continues to play from the "centrist" playbook, she may just find out how it is to be a Ned Lamont or a Howard Dean in reverse when it comes to inside-the-party politics.

Not to the same degree mind you. Currently, left voting DEMS are more loyal to the party than DLCers (see the left's "hold their nose & vote D" in 2004 & 2006 vs. the DLC's support for Joe Lieberman (I) for an example), but maybe it will be just enought to cause us to lose a close election.

I hope not- it will mostly hinge on how Hillary and her anti-grass-roots DLC people feel like treating the rest of the party.

[MrSlayer]

40. The Republican base for sure.

Most of us would hold our noses and vote for her if we had to but they will be coming out of the woodwork to vote against her with rabid enthusiasm. A Clinton nomination pretty much guarantees every Republican will out on election day. She turns what should be a shoe-in victory into a loss. Certainly she makes it close enough for them to steal it even if she did legitimately win.

[Sparkly]

43. Hard to say...

I think the RNC is great at coming up with an ISSUE to freak their voters into running to the polls. ("We have to get out and vote or else gay people will get married and our own marriages will mean nothing! or else our troops will have to fight with spitballs! or else the terrorists win! or else we'll be "hit again" and we'll all DIE!!!")

So, no matter who is nominated, they'll come up with SOMEthing.