Current Status of the Primary Polls, State-by-State (8-17-07)

[Yukari Yakumo]

Dems--

Winner take all
Current


Trends


15% threshold
Current


Trends


Reps--
Current


Trends


- - - - -

Not much to say on the Dem side.
A new poll in WA shows BO and JE with a share of the delegates... but then again, the last WA was in late '06.
HRC still leads in NV. Gained momentum in some states. But that's about it.
Good news for JE, he now shows up in WA, NV, NJ, & AL. Bad news, he no longer shows up in WI, lost strength in MI, and only barely has a foothold in SC.

On the Rep side
Romney has become dangerous. He has leads in IA, NH, and now NV.
But not much else to report.

- - - -

BTW, should I keep the fast speed for the trends images, or go back to the old slow style?

[rgbecker]

1. Great Graphics...but

Hi, never saw this before so I can't say if your slower speed was any easier to understand. But the trend chart is so fast I can't tell anything. What's with the two colors for each candidate? Light and dark green for Clinton? Need a legend about that. And what's with the stripes and color mixes..Need a legend...do you have a site where we can study this more closely. Which polls are you using? Great job and I can see you have put a lot of work into this and I am very interested but help me out please. thanks.

[durrrty libby]

2. Hey Aya I would love to read your dissection, because the dancing

maps, although pretty, I just don't get them

Also has anything changed since the last time you posted these?

Thank You

[Yukari Yakumo]

3. About the maps...

Dark colors are for old polls (> 1 month old)
Light colors show that there is recent polling data available.

Winner take all shows who leads the state.
15% threshold shows how much of a share of the state's delegates a candidate would receive based on the DNC's 15% threshold rule for this year's primaries. Pixel height (not area) indicates how much of the delegate pool a candidate would control.

[nickinSTL]

4. "On the Rep side Romney has become dangerous."

I'm not surprised by this.

Having watched some of the campaign stops they show on CSPAN, I get the impression Romney has a good shot at the nom - IF his Mormon religion doesn't turn off too many evangelicals and Thompson doesn't really get out there and makes an impact - and the Repubs figure out Giuliani's history.

Romney comes off well, IMO. Not that I agree with him, of course, but I see him as a legitimate threat.