The real reason Obama will skip some debates/forums

[draft_mario_cuomo]

4/26 debate (MSNBC)

Average in the five polls prior to the 4/26 debate: 27.8% (includes a lead in a poll, a tie in another, and a low of 20% in a Faux poll)
Average in the five polls after the 4/26 debate: 21.6%
Change: -6.2%

6/3 debate (CNN)

Average in the five polls prior to the debate: 25.8% (includes a lead in one poll)
Average in the five polls after the debate: 22.4%
Change: -3.4%

6/28 (PBS)

Average in the five polls prior to the debate: 22.8%
Average in the five polls after the debate: 23.2%
Change: +0.4%
Note: The first poll after the 6/28 debate was a week after the debate. Obama's lows come immediately after a debate.

7/23 (CNN/Youtube)

Average in the five polls prior to the debate: 26.0%
Average in the five polls after the debate: 22.2%
Change: -3.8%

8/7 (MSNBC)

Average in the five polls prior to the debate: 21.2%
Average in the five polls after the debate: 22.8%
Change: +1.6%

Average: -2.3% after a debate

The only time he helped himself in a debate was during a debate before a friendly hometown audience.

[ncabot22]

1. He's going to do 8 more debates by the end of the year

He's doing the debates that are already SCHEDULED...he's just not committing to doing those that are not scheduled.

Funny, you CLAIM to support John Edwards but 90% of the posts you make are bashing Obama. You must not have a lot of faith in your candidate if you need to do that.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

2. The OP shows why he is limiting the number of debates he will go to

;) I bet HRC will not do the same. If you look at her numbers she consistently rises after a debate...

[ncabot22]

4. Go to his website and read what he says

He doesn't rule any additional forums out..it is unlikely but he doesn't rule anything out. Please stick with facts and not your opinion. In your opinion, he is backing out. And that is fine but don't act like it is fact, ok? :)

In fact, he is completing his obligation to the agreed upon debates but is WILLING to consider other forums.

From his website:

Therefore, after this week, we will only be attending the five DNC debates through the sanctioning period of December 10, Univision, and the two Iowa debates previously mentioned. Candidate forums - where candidates appear sequentially will be considered, but we are unlikely to accept many of these. Instead, Barack will spend his time answering questions directly from voters in places like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and elsewhere. We simply cannot continue to hopscotch from forum to forum and run a campaign true to the bottom up movement for change that propelled Barack into this race.

After the sanctioning period, there will undoubtedly be a large number of debates scheduled in the early states and in February 5 states. We will make decisions on those as we get closer, but will clearly be doing a healthy number of debates after the sanctioning period.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

11. That is a semantics game. The bottom line is he will skip some debates/forums

That is what is a fact. :) As the OP shows, this is not necessarily a bad move for him in the primaries, although it could haunt him if he made it to the GE.

[ncabot22]

25. Not semantics

You are wrong--he is NOT BACKING OUT of the scheduled debates. He says it is unlikely he will participate in ones that have yet to be scheduled due to campaigning.

I'd ask the mods to do something about this false claim you are making. I'm pretty sure spreading false rumours is against the rules.

[ncabot22]

5. Why don't you just change your avatar

to Hillary? I mentioned you didn't have a lot of faith in YOUR candidate (which, by your avatar appears to be Edwards)and you respond by saying "I bet Hillary doesn't". Wow. Just wow.

[Colobo]

7. draft mario cuomo is a Hillarite now. He probably thinks Edwards

doesn't have a chance, so he's behind Hillary now. Hardcore Hillarites love him.

[ncabot22]

10. I think you are right, Katzenkavalier

But at least he could try to pretend he still support Edwards if he sports the Edwards avatar, you know?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

12. Because I support Edwards

The reason I said "I bet HRC doesn't" is simple: she consistently rises after a debate. If you are pointing out BO's declines after a debate she is the prime counterexample. Edwards remains stable after a debate, aside from the June CNN debate which cost him some points because he had the audacity to question Clobama.

[Dawgs]

16. Shit. I've been saying that for weeks. Actually, a better avatar would be an anit-Obama one.

Take away all of the threads he/she starts attacking Obama and you might only see two or three a day.

[Pirate Smile]

8. Why do you have a John Edwards avatar?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

13. For the same reason people have HRC, BO, Biden, etc. avatars nt

[Dawgs]

17. Why, to hide who you really support.

If not, then start posting positive threads for Edwards, instead of embarrassing yourself with the hateful Obama bashing threads.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

19. You were pwned on this just the other day by William

:rofl:

The OP is hardly a "hateful Obama bashing" thread. It is a factual look at why Obama is going to skip some debates. Of course, if reality contradicts hero worship it must be a "smear" or "hateful bash", right? The truth is Obama has been hurt by the debates. He knows it. That is why he is going to skip some debates and forums.

Some Obama fans need to accept the reality that there are some people who do not support HRC who do not like Obama.

[Dawgs]

21. I was what the other day?

You post ten times as many Obama bashing threads as Edwards supporting threads. William's didn't prove shit.

You obviously spend more time researching things to bring down Obama than you do posting anything in support of Edwards. I was right then, and I'm right now.

And, you do realize that no one is actually watching the debates?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

22. The facts prove you wrong on all counts

If the debates were irrelevant the OP would not exist. The OP shows the debates are hurting Obama (something no BO fan is disputing...). The facts also show the debates help Clinton. The conclusion: debates matter.

[jefferson_dem]

30. Debates do matter.

But the important question to answer is "HOW" do they matter and which what cost?

If your into sound-bite quips, canned zingers, and media-pronounced "winners and losers", i guess these forums are for you.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

28. LOLOCAUST

"pwned" was he?

[Ethelk2044]

32. This is bull shit.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

36. No BO fan has disputed the fact that Obama consistently declines in the polls after debates

Even the biggest BO spinners have not attempted to do so...

[jefferson_dem]

38. Actually, according to your numbers, he's improved in toto after the five debates.

Average in the five polls after the 4/26 debate: 21.6%
...
Average in the five polls after the 8/7 debate: 22.8%

So, in the end, after five debates, which you say hurt Obama, he's still a point better in the end.

What's your point again?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

46. Nice spin. He was at 27.8% before the debates began

Look at the numbers yourself, post them and make the case that the debates help him. His numbers in the days following a debate are very clear. That does not mean his numbers freeze a week after a debate until the next debate. Of course, you know that...

[madrchsod]

3. crap, i thought maybe they end the dog and pony show

oh well, at least i do`t waste my time listening to the q&a sessions that are supposed to be a "debate"

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

6. He's pacing himself, he's not breaking any commitments, it's only August 07 for gawd's sake.

The R's have put off their debates indefinitely.

Oh, wait, I forgot, just until the END OF NOVEMBER. And, they keep changing their dates.

The Dems have been suckered into starting the campaign season early, while the Repubs have just dipped their toes in the water.

So, any candidate who wants to put the brakes on, demonstrates some common sense. MKJ

[sampsonblk]

9. 'Winning' these debates is not helping his cause

After every debate, we hear that he 'won.' Whatever the hell that means. But after every debate, Clinton gets a bump in the polls. Obama really ought to reconsider his approach. Every time he appears on stage with her, the huge stature gap between the two becomes more and more apparent.

He's often right. She's always Hillary Clinton. That's his problem.

[Ethelk2044]

34. It is because the media is pushing Hilllary. The media wants to decide who we vote for.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

37. The same media that took an obscure local politician and made him a national sensation overnight? nt

[sampsonblk]

45. Ethel...You know better than that

When you see the two of them on stage together, he seems like her kid brother. There's your problem.

[tammywammy]

14. He's not backing out, he's still doing at least 8 more debates

[draft_mario_cuomo]

15. Will he be attending every debate and forum?

:)

[ncabot22]

23. The ones that are scheduled?

Yes. He isn't backing out of anything. He's committed to the ones that are already SCHEDULED. He says it is doubtful he will commit to ones that have not been scheduled. Please read his statement. He isn't backing out of any debates. Do not spread false rumours because you do not like a particular candidate.

[tammywammy]

24. Did you edit your OP title to reflect that it's "some"

Not all? I wouldn't have posted anything if you had said that originally.

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

20. Lame semantics. The OP has been edited to reflect that

[jefferson_dem]

26. Yet another ABO (anybody but Obama) post from DMC.

Exactly which already-scheduled forums will he skip?

When your candidates (which one is it again) doesn't participate in every single proposed candidate forum, will it also be because he or she fears declining poll numbers if he or she does attend?

I'm also curious about your position when Hillary and Edwards were scheming to exclude others from the forums altogether...

EDIT: To change "If" to "When".

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

29. No

That will be "plain spoken, strategic thinking" or "getting away from these stupid sound clip debates."

Honestly, if Obama cured cancer and bought everyone a puppy tomorrow, there's be a negative rationale behind it.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

31. Whoops

"There'd" not "there's."

Correcting my mistake now, lest I be PWNED!!!!!1!!.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

35. The spinning from the Obama camp is amusing

Team Obama always acts as if any news about BO that is not straight out of Chicago means nothing. Yet, they go ballistic on DU over it. If it is no big deal why the big reaction? Obama has all but said he will skip some debates/forums. To hide behind the fact that he has yet to announce which debates/forums that are not scheduled yet he will skip is lame and irrelevant outside of Team Obama. The rest of the nation will see this story for what it is.

Your question does not apply to any other candidate because only one candidate consistently drops in the polls after debates.

HRC and JE were not attempting to exclude anyone from a debate. I know there was a lot of faux outrage from Team Obama. That made today's news even more hilarious. Guess who HRC's main dancing partner in debate schemes is? Yes. Your hero. Edwards is "sometimes" included in Clobama's schemes. Of course, it is okay now that we know Obama was involved, right?

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

27. There's going to be plenty of crow to go around

When other candidates use this same justification to skip the next League of Concerned Ostrich Owners and Ranchers Debate in Whatever, Wyoming.

The only people who are in favor of these endless, derivative debates are the people who need face time; the only person who seems to have actually made use of it is Biden, who's got game like Sharpton. I'm a junky, and I've certainly stopped watching. The big three + Dodd are so viciously on message that nothing interesting is going to happen; the only fun is Richardson imploding or Gravel selling off his well earned dignity. It certainly isn't benefiting the Kooch, who needs space to move in.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[illinoisprogressive]

39. What about Edwards. he is floating at about 12 percent, DMC

[collegegirl211]

44. and your precious Obama is trailing clinton by 17 points nationally

and he is trailing clinton by 30% in california so you really dont have room to talk and this despite all the positive medai coverage he gets

[draft_mario_cuomo]

48. With all the cheerleading he gets from the CMSM he should be crushing Edwards and ahead of HRC

At least HRC gets negative press now and then; Obama has gotten nothing but cheerleading from the CMSM for 3 years. They built him; they sustain him.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

47. His numbers are consistent after debates, aside from the June 3 debate nt

[TeamJordan23]

40. DMC, what do you think will be more effective?

Going to forums (that are not even on TV sometimes) and answering the same questions from the previous debates OR actually going to the key states and campaigning there?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

49. That depends on the candidate. For Obama clearly skipping the debates would be better nt

[Name removed]

41. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TeamJordan23]

42. Why does DMC exclude forums from his analysis, such as LOGO debate, etc. nm

[Name removed]

43. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

51. Making up lies about Democrats are against DU rules

Do you have any evidence to back up your claim? If you are going to lie about a DUer be prepared to back it up with evidence...

[draft_mario_cuomo]

50. Simple: they get far less press coverage and hence have far less impact nt

[ripple]

52. Well, by that logic,

perhaps it wouldn't hurt Edwards to skip a debate or two. :P

[alteredstate]

53. Why do you hate Obama?

and why are you obsessed with him?

[alteredstate]

54. So you came up with all of thse figures

just for us?