Hillary is the candidate who can be beaten,40% of the electorate say they would vote against her.

[saracat]

The the electorate already "knows who she is". What is troubling is that 40% have
decided to vote AGAINST her.The very fact that public opinion has already been formed makes that number difficult to change.Hillary is still a polarizing figure that many Americans do not like. Hillary has been known as "intelligent" and hardworking since she was in college. Unfortunately that has been morphed into a perception of her as cold, manipulative and power hungry.That perception has not changed.It is really tough to banish a power hungry image when you are running for President.

Hillary was never the beneficiary of the warm fuzzies the electorate gave her husband.From the very beginning the electorate responded to allegations that she was an "intrusive co-president" and rejected her as "pushy" and "manipulative". Her one moment of popularity was when the public stood by her during the Lewinsky matter, as they sympathized with the betrayed wife. In part, that is what helped her win the NY senate seat as many women were outraged when her male opponent attempted to "bully" her into signing a "pledge" and that moment turned the campaign against him , and in support of a woman they thought had been through enough.

Those sympathies do not exist today.Somehow Hillary's loyalty to her husband is being twisted into something cynical.

The Republicans are not afraid of Hillary.They have been promoting her this time around as in an election in which a Democrat is virtually assured of victory, Hillary is the one that can be beaten.
Note Rassmussen has her at 54% unfavorability! http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election

[msongs]

1. that means 60% would vote for her......doh! btw, link? nt

[saracat]

9. Doesn't work that way! And she now has a 54% unfavorability rating!

[DURHAM D]

18. Last one I saw was 39%.

Stop making shit up.

[saracat]

20. I provided a link! Not making anything up.You??

[paulk]

33. what doesn't work is the assumption that unfavorability ratings

translate into people not voting for you.

[nxylas]

11. Umm, no

The opinion polls I've seen usually have the split as around 40% for, 40% against and 20% undecided.

[saracat]

14. This is the recent Rass.

[trayted]

28. No, that means that 60% "might" vote for her. Odds are, all of them won't vote "for" her.

If 40% say that they will not vote for her, there is a greater chance that they will not change their minds than there is that the other 60% will all vote "for" her, and if that 40% includes some Democrats and a lot of Independents, then she is in serious trouble.

So, the most important thing to find out is who those 60% are. Do they include some people who "won't" vote for her, but don't want to sound "sexist" by saying so? Do those 40% include some married women who don't want to piss off their husbands, even though we assume that those women were polled without their husbands hearing the conversation, so that's less likely.

Sigh.

Simply put, you can't assume that all 60% would vote "for" her. They "might." Some of the 40% "might," change their minds, but odds are their feelings are stronger than many of the 60%, and since the unfavs are 14% higher than the "would not vote for" is, odds are that some of that 60% wouldn't vote for her.

Like I said in the other thread, nominating her would be a nailbiter race, stacked against her because of high "will never vote for" numbers, that are more solid than they are for Edwards, Obama, and the other Democrats.

If 40% say they would not vote for Obama or Edwards, who have much less name ID, that's a lot different than 40% saying it for Clinton who is at almost 100% name ID.

[BenDavid]

40. Like your answer. If the republicans have

40% and democrats have 40% and the indies have 20% then her unfavorable rating is 40% republicans. Do not know why a democrat would answer dislike her in any poll....
I thank you
Ben David

[Mz Pip]

2. 48% voted against Kerry

so Hillary is doing pretty well!

Mz Pip
:dem:

[aquart]

3. So 60% WILL vote for her? Looks like victory to me.

72 million Democrats.

55 million Republicans.

42 million independants.

I don't give a damn what the Republicans want. Give me 60% of the Dems and indies and screw the Republicans.

[durrrty libby]

8. I knew there were more dems than pugs, but had no idea

how many more.
Dang, mathematically, we should never lose.

[saracat]

10. That is because Dems do NOT vote and Repugs do.Anyone who has been around

campigns for more than 5 minutes knows that.That is why the GOP vote is important to us.Whatever.No candidate will ever win with just the Dem vote and the Indies are statistically just as likely to be GOP.They used to be more likely Dem but not anymore.

[durrrty libby]

29. "Anyone who has been around campigns for more than 5 minutes knows that."

Be careful....you are coming off a bit "shrill" and we all know how much you dislike that.

[aquart]

15. Which is why they HAD to cheat. No other possible way to win.

Unless, of course, they run a movie star. Fred Thompson ain't Ronnie and he ain't The Terminator. But he's the only one vain enough to think he has a prayer this year.

Remember, things aren't going to improve over the next year. We are going to lurch from calamity to calamity, completely unprepared.

People talk with horror of Bush declaring himself president for life. Piffle. Dictators don't have to be impeached. They can simply be hanged.

Not to mention, the Secret Service have guns.

[saracat]

19. I agree they cheated but it is a fact fewer Dems vote.Check any

precinct walking list and you can see .They don't bother to vote.Seriously.Those figures of voter reg don't matter if we can't get them to the polls.

[aquart]

34. You mean the ones on line for hours who couldn't get to vote?

Those Democrats? Or the ones who showed up to find a notice their polling place had been moved god knows where? Those Democrats? Or the ones who registered but found themselves unlisted as registered because of voter purging? Those Democrats? Or the ones who were phoned and told the wrong polling day? Those Democrats?

[saracat]

13. And BTW, Obama and Edwrds clobber the GOP and Hillary barely "squeaks" by.

You wanna take that kind of "risk " with the general? I don't!

[Ethelk2044]

26. It will not be enough for her to win the election

[durrrty libby]

30. I'll bet your ass it will be

And please... people will not want an empty suit with crap experience

It ain't happening

[SaveElmer]

4. Except her negatives have dropped...

From 46 to 39 accoding to CBS...

In key states such as Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan they are even lower.

She is in a better position now than Bill was at this point in 1992...

She has a 65% approval in Arkansas...

She has higher positives than the other candidates...

Polls in the last 4 days showing her flipping two southern red states...

And she is by far the best prepared to deal with the swiftboat type onslaughts that will be coming...

No, Hillary is the best positioned to win next year...

[saracat]

7. Look at her unfavotrability rating in the current Rasmussen! 54% !

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election

[Name removed]

12. Deleted sub-thread

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[SaveElmer]

17. Hardly definitive...

And even Rasmussen concedes those numbers are much higher than she is getting in key states...I know you don't want Hillary and so will hang onto whatever poll shows her at her worst, but the fact is, in most polls her negatives are improving, and is her performance against the Republican candidates...

[Name removed]

22. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[durrrty libby]

5. You can wish it and hope it, but she will not be stopped

[aquart]

16. Uh, could you wait till we vote in the primaries

BEFORE you declare her the Democratic candidate? Even if you think it's a mere formality?

[MadHound]

24. What, is she the Borg?

There's still a lot of time between now and the primaries, and there is still a lot of time for things to change.

[durrrty libby]

31. "What, is she the Borg? " The strongest, toughest and best.....baby

[Name removed]

6. Deleted sub-thread

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[sam sarrha]

21. all the debate about her is a waste of time,Nader will just spoil any election th ReThugs cant steal

[FreakinDJ]

23. NO KIDDING - Last chance for DEMOCRACY

This is what everyone has been saying

But a few determined people have decided

TO HELL WITH AMERICA

TO HELL WITH THE CONSTITUTION

and TO HELL WITH THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

To these people all I can say is YOU NEED YOUR OWN PARTY because the real patriots in the roon are concerned about the American people and America

[DU GrovelBot]

25. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

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[ElizabethDC]

27. I'd bet 40% of the population isn't likely to vote for the Democratic candidate no matter who it is.

[durrrty libby]

32. I hope that the last 7 years will pull them out of their apathy

Voting dems need to have a little chat with the sleepy ones

I've spoken to several and I have hope

[trayted]

35. Wrong. That 40% is bound to include a lot of Independents who would vote for other Democrats

[antiimperialist]

36. Hillary beats Giuliani in all non-Rasmussen polls

Come election day, voters are not asked whether or not they view a candidate favorably. They are asked who they want to vote for.

[saracat]

37. It isn't that she doesn't beat the GOP it is by how much of a margin!

[durrrty libby]

38. Take a deep breath, believe, and enjoy intelligent women

It will change your life and the world for the better.

[Mutineer]

39. This is not about intelligent women

no one doubts that HRC is certainly that. We're talking viable candidates who can win the presidency which she is NOT.