During August, Clinton Continues to Build Support

[Karmadillo]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary

Monday, August 20, 2007

August is shaping up like the previous several months in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. New York Senator Hillary Clinton has built a bit more support than the month before while the other candidates remain essentially where they were (review week-by-week numbers).

Rasmussen Reports national polling shows that Clinton’s support averaged 33% for all polls released in April. Her support increased to 35% in May, 36% in June and 39% in July. The first three polls released in August show her averaging 41% support.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama’s support averages 23% for the first three weeks in August. That’s down slightly from 25% in July, 26% in June, and 27% in May. Obama peaked on the eve of the first Presidential debate. For the month of April, his support averaged 31%.

Former North Carolina Senate John Edwards has consistently hovered in the low-to-mid teens, a distant third.

In addition to leading the national polls, Clinton also leads the early Primaries in New Hampshire and Florida.

more...

[draft_mario_cuomo]

1. "Obama peaked on the eve of the first Presidential debate." (he actually took the lead)

Surely that is a coincidence. I am told the debates have not hurt Obama at all. :crazy:

[HeraldSquare212]

2. Headline fix?

From the same report:

It is worth noting that Clinton’s numbers are down slightly from the first week in August.

[wyldwolf]

3. uh.. no. Headline as written from the source.

It is worth noting that Clinton’s numbers are down slightly from the first week in August.

...but since the article is about the month's average...

[HeraldSquare212]

4. Clinton peaks, numbers begin downward movement

I didn't mean you reported it incorrectly, just that an alternative headline could just as easily highlight the fact that is in that one sentence - that her numbers are down.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. Her numbers are consistently rising, while Obama is consistently declining

The headline is correct.

April

Clinton 33% Obama 31%

May

Clinton 35% Obama 27%

June

Clinton 36% Obama 26%

July

Clinton 39% Obama 25%

August

Clinton 41% Obama 23%

Change: Clinton +8, Obama -8

[durrrty libby]

7. Maybe this will help make it crystal clear for you

"However, the frontrunner has polled above the 40% mark for four straight weeks, a level she never reached earlier in the year. Rasmussen Reports continues to see Hillary Clinton as the default candidate of the Democratic Party."


That sums it up nicely for me

[rinsd]

8. Except that headline would be incorrect. Her numbers have been steadily rising

"Rasmussen Reports national polling shows that Clinton’s support averaged 33% for all polls released in April. Her support increased to 35% in May, 36% in June and 39% in July. The first three polls released in August show her averaging 41% support."

[HeraldSquare212]

9. Nope.

The article itself says the numbers are down since the beginning of August, per the quoted sentence. It's a look back that in the headline ignores the most recent data.

[rinsd]

10. That's the best you got that she averaged 42% in the first week and averaged 41% last week.

That's what you are basing your headline on?

Speaking of ignoring the most recent data, daily tracking numbers with Rasmussen are showing another uptick.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

So again your headline is false because we don't know if that is her peak yet and her numbers are not in decline.

[Karmadillo]

6. Or I could have written "Obama continues to fall from April polling peak"

or something like that, but I thought it more reasonable to go with the actual title of the article.

[quinnox]

11. Hillary is beating Obama badly

Obama isn't making headway. Hillary continues to steamroll.