Rasmussen: Obama Holds On to Slim Leads over Rudy & Thompson

[rinsd]

Friday, August 24, 2007

Democratic Senator Barack Obama maintains his edge over former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone poll. It’s now Obama 45% and Giuliani 43%. That's just one percentage point more than Obama earned two weeks ago in our August 7 poll.

This is the third straight Rasmussen Reports poll to show Obama with a modest lead over Giuliani. Prior to that, Giuliani held the edge over Obama in seven straight polls between Election 2006 and June 2007.

Obama also leads former Senator Fred Thompson 45% to 41% in the new Election 2008 poll. That's a bit closer than the seven-point lead Obama enjoyed two weeks ago. The very first time we polled on this match-up, in March, Obama had a double-digit lead over Thompson. Obama has held the lead ever since, but more modestly.

Rasmussen Reports will test this match-up again in two weeks.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_holds_on_to_slim_leads_over_giuliani_thompson

Ras's daily tracking poll has shown some movement for Obama this week but it is too early to tell if its a trend or a minor bump similar to what Hillary experienced earlier this month.

[aquart]

1. "Slim leads"? Ridiculous.

How could any sane person even consider voting for those poseurs?

[Colobo]

2. Obama is still on the lead, that's the important thing.

[rinsd]

3. Its Rasmussen's headline. And yes what is important is that he is in the lead (3rd poll in a row)

[Tellurian]

7. Zogby: "Hillary's move in Iowa mirrors her national gains as others fade."..

After months of nipping at the heels of former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards among likely Iowa Democratic caucus–goers, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has made a move to the top of the heap in the race for her party’s presidential nomination, a new NewsMax/Zogby telephone poll shows.

...

Clinton’s move up in Iowa replicates what she has done nationally, building a powerhouse campaign and benefiting in part from the positive opinions of her husband, the survey shows.

Clinton leads with 30% support, followed by Edwards at 23% and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama at 19%. She added six points to her column since the last Zogby Iowa polling in May, while Edwards and Obama have each lost three points during the same time period.

...

Among women – a key demographic for Clinton, who could be the first woman elected President – she expands her lead a bit, taking support from Edwards, while Obama remains static. She wins 35% support among females, while Obama wins 19% and Edwards collects backing from 17%.

(see results)

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1350

...they never learn. The more they attack Hillary, the attacker always loses polling points...while Hillary's poll numbers consistently rise...

[rinsd]

8. Hillary is doing very well.

She's in a dead heat in IA, leading in NV, leading in NH and possibly leading in SC (polls are a little squirrely there).

She is beating the GOP in head to head matchups in key swings states even flipping some red states.

We should be pleased with, though not content, her current position.

[William769]

10. Did you see who she has for her in S.C. now?

[rinsd]

13. No. Who joined the team?

[William769]

14. ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3474113&mesg_id=3474113

[rinsd]

16. Very cool!

:toast:

[Tellurian]

20. ....

rinsd and Billy,

:toast:

[William769]

23. Back atcha!

:toast:

[durrrty libby]

17. I'd love to see her win in Iowa

No matter, she continues to do very well

:applause:

[Tellurian]

21. dl...

"high fives!"

[durrrty libby]

22. LOL

[dmallind]

4. Giuliani and Thompson have the most "good vibes"

amongst the electorate of the Rep field but that should be pretty easy to reduce once we get into a head to head competition on specifics and policy. Rudy is surprising me a bit by continuing to do so well with evangelicals but he hasn't been the target of much "values" attacks either, so I suspect that's mostly due to the R after his name and the tiresome image of him as a valuable post 9/11 leader. One would suspect few of them have yet seen pictures of him in drag or heard too much about his shifting pro choice stance. Rest assured they will.

Thompson has the opposite problem - his good vibe comes from his imposing presence and image as a fair and competent leader in his L&O role. He's wowing a lot of moderates with this. When they hear that he's both a policy lightweight and a socially extreme conservative, the currently barely-engaged moderates will desert him in droves.

Long term neither candidate scares me much in a general, and I think neither will get far beyond the automatic (R) voters. There are of course about 40% of them, so any inroads into moderate territory they can make will help enormously, but I honestly can't see either of them getting closer than 5-6% to any Dem candidate other than the extremely unlikely Kucinich/Gravel options.

Which of course would be great if we elected presidents on popular votes. However absent some wild news from CA about their vote split idea, we should carry enough swing states to be good. Everything subject to change of course. If Obama gets caught with gay porn on his laptop, Edwards confesses to using illegals as slave labor to run his estate and Hillary shows up with a $50 million dollar account in the Caymans with one deposit from Jack Abramoff then sure problems might start happening.

[durrrty libby]

18. "competent leader in his L&O role. He's wowing a lot of moderates with this"

Stupid republicans like the guy because of his tv role.:rofl:

It is nuts that we ever lose to this bunch

[dmallind]

19. Yeah starting to look that way ain't it.

I mean yes we should be careful and nobody ever went too far wrong overestimating the stupidity of the American public, but god damn if we lose this time it's time to just give it up as a bad job, start ending sentences with "eh" and learning how to calculate litres/100km fuel efficiency.

The scary thing is it isn't just Reps - Thompson does quite well with independents and grabs quite a few Dems too. I doubt he will once they learn he's not a TV character. Well not a good one anyway - just a straight from the mold Brownback wannabe.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. Does Obama flip any red states? That is where he seems to lag far behind JE and HRC

He does well in national trial heats but the election will be decided in the electoral college. Does he flip any red states? SurveyUsa had him losing Massachusetts to Ghouliani.

[rinsd]

6. Quinnipiac has him losing OH. PA & FL as well.

But as I said many times when my girl was behind those guys, polls can change and he has shown upward movement.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

9. How do we win if we lose Ohio, PA, FL, NY, and even Massachusetts?

Has he? He was much stronger earlier in the year, if memory serves me correctly, just as he was stronger in primary polling at the time. He has improved vs. Ghoul but that is only because Ghoul has been falling quicker than Obama. Notice how much Thompson has gained on Obama? To be fair, he has gained a lot on all of our candidates (aside from HRC who he was close to from day 1) but it seems Obama, not Clinton, is our least electable major candidate.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

11. This is the EC if we lose those states alone. Forget for now the other states BO would lose

350-188. We lose. But, hey, talking about "hope" sure was fun, right? And man can he drain a 3 pointer!

[rinsd]

12. We don't have much on head to head numbers by state though.

I know Obama beats Rudy in NY and CA.

And as far as Thompson goes his rise is based on nothing other than the rest of the GOP field tanking.

Once he campaigns his numbers will go down just they have for Rudy.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

15. We have two multi-state SurveyUSA polls (one also included Edwards)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3330663