What red states does Obama flip?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

Polling has him losing Ohio, Florida, New York, California, and even Massachusetts (to Ghoul). Which red states will he flip to make up the lost ground in these states?

[truebrit71]

1. Which polls? Please post links.

Obama loses NY and CA??...not bloody likely if he's the Dem nominee...If it is HRC then I would say you're probably right...

[draft_mario_cuomo]

2. That is the myth. The opposite is true. Clinton wins, those, Obama loses

http://www.surveyusa.com/3WayMBwheel062007

Here is a similar earlier multi-state comparison that also includes Edwards (Obama led in CA then but lost his lead in the next survey):

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_surveyusa_10_state_ge_res.php

Massachusetts Giuliani 40 Clinton 52
Massachusetts Giuliani 45 Edwards 46
Massachusetts Giuliani 48 Obama 41
New York Giuliani 42 Clinton 53
New York Giuliani 49 Edwards 44
New York Giuliani 51 Obama 42
Ohio Giuliani 45 Clinton 48
Ohio Giuliani 42 Edwards 50
Ohio Giuliani 51 Obama 40
Missouri Giuliani 48 Clinton 45
Missouri Giuliani 43 Edwards 48
Missouri Giuliani 50 Obama 42
Iowa Giuliani 48 Clinton 45
Iowa Giuliani 40 Edwards 54
Iowa Giuliani 44 Obama 49
Wisconsin Giuliani 45 Clinton 44
Wisconsin Giuliani 39 Edwards 49
Wisconsin Giuliani 45 Obama 43
Minnesota Giuliani 45 Clinton 48
Minnesota Giuliani 41 Edwards 49
Minnesota Giuliani 49 Obama 43
Kentucky Giuliani 48 Clinton 46
Kentucky Giuliani 44 Edwards 47
Kentucky Giuliani 54 Obama 38
Virginia Giuliani 49 Clinton 44
Virginia Giuliani 45 Edwards 45
Virginia Giuliani 53 Obama 38
New Mexico Giuliani 47 Clinton 45
New Mexico Giuliani 46 Edwards 43
New Mexico Giuliani 50 Obama 40
California Giuliani 41 Clinton 53
California Giuliani 42 Edwards 49
California Giuliani 45 Obama 46

[SteppingRazor]

3. Those polls are from May 2.

Obama's a bit more of a known commodity now. I'd be curious to see more-recent polls.

[Dawgs]

5. May 2nd

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[draft_mario_cuomo]

7. Good point. His poll numbers have dropped as he has gotten more well-known

So he probably does worse now. His name ID then was on par with Edwards so how do you explain the huge disparity between Edwards and Obama? Edwards wins even in true red states like Virginia and Kentucky while Obama loses Massachusetts and California.

Those polls are the only head-to-head multi-state survey we have available--the best way to compare GE strength. Individual state polling also has him losing Florida and Ohio.

[SteppingRazor]

11. So, you take four-month-old polls, acknowledge that they're the most recent you could find...

and then demand that other people offer more-recent evidence to dispute yours? Isn't that a little disingenuous?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

12. There have been several individual GE state polls done since then

Such as the ones that have Obama losing Florida, Ohio, and Pennsyvlania. There have been no multi-state head-to-head comparisons done since then.

The premise of the whines is that Obama is a stronger candidate now than he was in May. That is absurd. A week before May 2 he was hovering at 30-32% in the national polls and lead in the Rasmussen (then the first debate occurred and he fell a bit). Now he is 20+ points behind Clinton.

I didn't ask for more recent evidence. I asked for any evidence. "Faith" is not evidence. Obama supporters often argue he is the most electable but notice how you never see them talk about how he would do in the electoral college? Winning the popular vote 52-48 means nothing if you lose Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York (to Ghoul).

There have been numerous such threads about HRC. What is wrong with one about Obama? Clinton supporters quickly offer evidence to support their claims of her electability.

[rinsd]

13. Quinnipiac has Obama losing to Rudy in FL, OH & PA

From Aug 8th (all 3) http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1089

From Aug 23rd (PA only) http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1095

[draft_mario_cuomo]

14. While Clinton wins FL and PA and ties in Ohio

* Florida - Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 44 percent, flipping a 46 - 44 percent Giuliani lead July 23;
* Ohio - Clinton ties Giuliani 43 - 43 percent, compared to a 44 - 42 percent Clinton lead July 12;
* Pennsylvania - Clinton edges Giuliani 45 - 44 percent, compared to a 45 - 45 percent tie June 27.

Florida: Giuliani tops Obama 44 - 41 percent;
Ohio: Giuliani defeats Obama 42 - 39 percent;
Pennsylvania: Giuliani defeats Obama 45 - 39 percent

[rinsd]

15. A couple of caveats.

Even though these are swing states, they all have delayed primaries so the candidates haven't been concentrating on these guys.

Its why you see the known quantities with an advantage over the unknown ie: Rudy beats everyone but Clinton, the Big 3 beats everyone but Rudy.

[SteppingRazor]

18. That's the thing.

Aren't GE polls fairly meaningless, given that the election is still a year and a half away? If this were Aug. 2008, I'd be more worried over those polls.

More interesting to me are the most recent first-primary state polls, which have Edwards in the lead in Iowa (U. of Iowa, Aug. 5), Clinton and Obama tied for the lead in New Hampshire (ARG, July 30) and Obama in the lead in South Carolina (ARG, July 30).

:hide:



(For the record, I'm tentatively for Obama, but I like all our candidates)

[rinsd]

19. Head to heads give you a slight clue as to their general election strength

Earlier this primary season as part of the unelectable meme, numbers showing Clinton losing to Rudy were touted. She has overcome Rudy in some polling and is in a virtual dead heat with him now. Obama * Edwards have slight edges over Rudy. Clinton beats all other GOPers but by smaller margins than Edwards or Obama.

"More interesting to me are the most recent first-primary state polls, which have Edwards in the lead in Iowa (U. of Iowa, Aug. 5), Clinton and Obama tied for the lead in New Hampshire (ARG, July 30) and Obama in the lead in South Carolina (ARG, July 30)."

I'm a polling nut. Here's a link to all the latest polls (ignore the douchebag commentary, its just a convenient clearing house for the polls)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[SteppingRazor]

23. Cool site!

I got all my polls here:
http://electoral-vote.com/

I'm kind of a nut for these things two.

The site I mentioned is so-so now, but it gets pretty good as elections draw near. Talk about a polling nut! The guy that runs that site is a total poll junkie.

[rinsd]

25. Bewteen that pollster.com and pollingreport.com

You should be able to access any and every poll from here till election day.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

31. So why does Edwards do much better than Obama with the same name ID? nt

[truebrit71]

4. Notice how John Edwards as the same if not HIGHER numbers then your Queen...??

Hmmmmmmmm?

Seems that in your haste to bash Obama you let the truth fairy out...and the truth fairy says that John Edwards kicks BOTH of their asses!!!

[Dawgs]

8. Be careful. DMC likes to pretend he/she supports both Hillary and Edwards.

[jefferson_dem]

21. I guess DMC is off the Edwards bandwagon.

Note the evolving avatar....

Fair weather fans so lame.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

32. Psst...note my signature line nt

[draft_mario_cuomo]

10. It is well-documented that Edwards is our best general election candidate nt

[Dawgs]

20. Not according to the pollster.com graphic.

They take the average of most recent polls to come up with their numbers. They don't just pick and choose which ones they like.

Oops!! So much for his numbers have been falling since May.

07/30/2007
----------
Obama(46.3) > Giuliani(41.7) = +4.6
Edwards(46.7) > (44.8) = +1.9
Hillary(45.8) > Giuliani(44.3) = +1.5

07/18/2007
----------
Obama(49.7) > Romney(35.6) = +14.1
Edwards(51.1) > Romney(37.4) = +13.7
Clinton(48.6) > Romney(38.6) = +10.0

Obama(48.9) > Thompson(37.7) = +11.2
Edwards(49.3) > Thompson(39.3) = +10.0
Clinton(47.3) > Thompson(43.2) = +4.1

[rinsd]

22. Pollster doesn't have the latest numbers on their graphs.

RCP does averages too

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

In national heats Obama's numbers have seen some dips since May but are now back around 46%

[Dawgs]

24. Agree, but the numbers they show are from the middle and end of July; not May.

My reason for posting was to show DMC that Edwards and Hillary were not doing better than Obama.

[rinsd]

27. I understand.

I think DMC's point is that Obama seems to be lagging in GE heats by state.

But I am unsure if we have enough polling data to confirm or debunk that.

[Dawgs]

28. Okay, but actually I was responding to his claim that Edwards was doing better than Obama/Hillary.

Not the OP.

[rinsd]

29. Gotcha

[draft_mario_cuomo]

33. Exactly. No one has named a single red state Obama would flip yet nt

[Dawgs]

6. His chances of flipping many of the southern states is pretty damn good.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

9. Answer the OP. Name the red states he would flip and show us data to support it nt

[Dawgs]

16. "Answer the OP. Name the red states he would flip and show us data to support it "

Your question in the OP says nothing about posting polls. I assumed that since you can't produce any polls more recent than four months ago it was okay to pull shit out of my ass (like you did).

Although, I do believe he has a much better chance of winning in the South.

I have two examples
1) I live in Georgia. I attended an Obama event with 20,000 other supporters. I have never seen that kind of attendance for a Democrat in Georgia.

2) I went to an Atlanta Thrashers (NHL Hockey) game where they showed an image of Hillary on their scoreboard (promotion during a timeout). The whole place (over 20,000) started booing. It made me sick, as I actually support other Democrats. No other candidate was booed.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

34. So you have no real evidence that Obama will win in conservative Georgia?

Nader also had big rallies. How did he do? Obama can't even win PA, Fl, OH, and solidly blue states like Massachusetts, California, and New York (vs. Ghoul). How is he going to win Georgia?

[emilyg]

42. I live in Ga.

In my opinion - he can't win here. Just an opinion - don't flame

[Dawgs]

17. According to pollster.com graphic (07/2007), Obama does best against Republicans nationally.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

35. Which has zero to do with the OP. So you concede Obama won't flip any red states? nt

[cobalt1999]

26. Clinton, Obama, and Edwards all have a great chance of flipping red states

All three will flip Ohio and Florida. The republicans are going to "Mondale" this election if the Dems pick any of the three.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

38. True, but Ghouliani, Thompson, and Romney all have a good chance of retaining the red states

And Ghouliani, at least, has shown he can flip blue states--including California--against Obama.

[cobalt1999]

41. Not going to happen.

Any of the Republicans is going to lose and lose big in 2008 against Hillary, Obama, or Edwards. Polls like this don't mean much until the Republicans and Dems start campaigning head to head against each other, right it's all primary campaigning.

Any of the three take this thing big.

[BeyondGeography]

30. Good to see you've shelved the Edwards avatar

now you can proceed with full-time Obama hunting without pretending that you actually care about anything more than seeing him lose.

As for your OP, Obama hasn't campaigned in any of the states you've mentioned. Where he is campaigning, he polls very well. As an Edwards supporter, you should know that.

[AtomicKitten]

36. it's subterfuge

The basher has donned some cover hoping we are 2 stoopud 2 to track his slime trail.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

37. Neither have Hillary and Edwards and they win those states; BO loses

Obama is the least electable of the trio right now, which is very ironic given how much his electability his been hyped, especially during the halycon days of spring when he was doing far better than HRC in trial heats and once reached 30-33% in Democratic primary polls.

[AtomicKitten]

39. Were you inspired by Drudge again for this assault de jour on Obama?

[BeyondGeography]

40. It's not complicated; they're known quantities, he isn't

As people get to know him, he tends to do well. The polling data right now in states that he hasn't paid attention to is of little to no value.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

43. The facts do not comport with those Obama supporter myths

1) He has higher name ID than Edwards and is only 9 points behind HRC in name ID, only 2 behind the well-known McCain
2) His poll numbers have steadily declined as he has become better known

[Ethelk2044]

45. You are correct. When he opens his offices in those states he will do well.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

44. So the conclusion is Obama will flip no red states? nt

[stray cat]

46. How many could Edwards flip - I think he has a better chance than Clinton, Obama

when it comes to flipping a red state.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

48. Plenty. Here is a brief list

First, here are some real red states he would flip: North Carolina, Kentucky, and Virginia. Presumably, since he leads in those states, he would also win other politically similar southern red states like Arkansas, Louisana, and Tennessee. As far purples states, he would dominate in them, including the big swing states such as Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Edwards would retain all the blue states. Do the math. He would win all the blue states, win the vast majority of purple states, and flip several red states. That=Democratic victory.

Let's not forget the Republican nominee is likely to be from the Northeast, either a former New York City mayor or a former Massachusetts governor. Running a southerner against them would give us a great shot at breaking the Republican lock on the South. Running a New Yorker or a guy from Chicago does not give us as great a chance to change the electoral map, especially against Romney and Ghouliani. Of course, against Thompson, a southerner, it is hard to see a New Yorker or Chicagoan excelling (by Democratic standards, think Clintin in 1992 and 1996) in the South.

[Blue_In_AK]

47. Just a hunch, but

of the current crop of nominees, I think only Richardson could take Alaska. Sen. Clinton would do the worst.