Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Questions Remain Despite Kerry's Edge

[WilliamPitt]

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http://www.jsonline.com/news/gen/feb04/208117.asp

Questions remain despite Kerry's edge

By CRAIG GILBERT
Feb. 16, 2004

As likely as Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry might be to win his party's nomination, there are a few important unknowns going into the Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary Tuesday.

What role will the huge numbers of non-Democratic voters play in the outcome?

How will the sheer size of the electorate here - perhaps 1 million or more, way beyond any of the 16 contests so far - affect the results?

What will the impact be of the Democratic debate Sunday, the top-rated program in the Milwaukee television market during its broadcast?

Given Kerry's lead in the polls and the air of disarray around former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's campaign, the most pertinent question might be this:

Is there any late movement at all for North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who has outspent his opponents on TV here and closed strongly in some earlier battles?

"I think this is a state where anything is possible. I don't think anybody really has a good feel as to what's happening," Edwards aide David Ginsburg said.

...more...

[flpoljunkie]

1. Read article earlier. Found this portion interesting.

Kerry's edge among Democrats

Kerry's performance was especially lopsided among Democrats: 62% support him, compared with 45% of independents and 20% of Republicans.

By the same token, Edwards did better among independents (27%) than Democrats (16%), and Dean did the best of the three among Republicans planning to vote in the Democratic primary.

Those breakdowns are relevant because of the chief distinguishing feature of the Wisconsin presidential primary: its big electorate, swelled by non-Democrats allowed to vote because of the open primary system.

___________________

It looks like the Republicans could make the race today very interesting--if they turn out and vote for Howard Dean--altho the article does not say how much better Dean does with the GOP than the other candidates.

[RogueTrooper]

4. I always had the Dean's campaign's ability

to draw in Republicans to be one of it's main electoral strengths.

[killbotfactory]

8. When Kerry had repubs voting for him in NH

It was proof of his crossover appeal.

But if Dean does it in WI, it's a Rove conspiracy.

[HereSince1628]

2. S.E. Wisconsin and Milwaukee are models of the rust belt

we're still making lawn mower engines, and some Harley's but the heavy machinery and farm implement production is ancient history. Beer manufacturing is almost gone, meat packing is a shadow of it's past...though we do still make terrific jelly beans.

Anti-NAFTA and anti-WTO messages produce harmonics in democratic voters who can remember much better days. Many of the candidates have acknowledged that message. Now we can only wait to see how well they sold their versions at the end of the day.

[WilliamPitt]

3. That's Dennis country.

:)

[bobthedrummer]

5. He will get some delegates

from Wisconsin today.

[HereSince1628]

6. True, it will be interesting to see how he does

in Racine, Kenosha and Milwaukee counties.

[Whitacre D_WI]

7. The Milwaukee for Kucinich group is wonderful.

I should know, I started it. :)

Of course, they've only REALLY done great things since I handed the reins over to Jessica & co. She's done a hell of a lot better than I ever could.

In fact, Sunday was the first time since last summer that I really did any work for the campaign. It felt good.