Rasmussen: Clinton electability more predictable--high enough for narrow victory or close defeat

[flpoljunkie]

"With Obama or Edwards in the mix, the range of possible outcomes is much wider."

2008 Democratic Presidential Primary
Clinton Remains Frontrunner Despite Questions About Electability
Monday, August 27, 2007

As a result, Clinton’s numbers have softened a bit over the past couple of weeks (review week-by-week numbers). But, she retains a solid lead in national polling. She also leads in the key primary states of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. The basic question about the Democratic nomination process remains unchanged. Can Obama or Edwards provide a convincing rationale for nominating someone other than Clinton? If so, they will have to make that case before the Iowa caucus and hope that a strong performance in the initial voter event of Election 2008 will cause Democrats to reconsider their support for the frontrunner.

In making that case, everyone will talk a lot about electability, a topic with no clear answers. The only thing we know for certain is that opinions are far more solidly established for Clinton than anyone else in the race. That means Clinton’s numbers will be less volatile going forward. Whether that is a plus or a minus depends upon the nature of the volatility.

An Obama or Edwards supporter would quickly point out that their candidates have more upside potential and less entrenched opposition. That’s true. A Clinton fan might point out that voter views of either Obama or Edwards could also head in the opposite direction. That’s also true.

What that means is that an election with Clinton involved would be more predictable. Barring a total collapse of the GOP candidate, it is most likely that her vote total would be in the upper 40% range. That’s high enough for a narrow victory or a close defeat.

With Obama or Edwards in the mix, the range of possible outcomes is much wider.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary

[MidwestTransplant]

1. I am not a supporter of Hillary but the couple of times I have seen her

I have liked her more and more. I think the rest of the country will feel the same way. IMO she has nowhere to go but up.

[BadgerLaw2010]

2. Exactly. Republicans are going to hate her more??

[mod mom]

5. No, but many Dems may state her as a choice based solely on name recognition.

the more Dems are aware of her policies (think Freetrade and support of corporate interests) they may be less inclined to support her.

[Dawgs]

10. Really? My feeling is exactly opposite of yours.

Every time I see her I dislike her more and more.

[wyldwolf]

3. Contrary to what Rasmussen says, there is one more thing we know...

Candidates take on hight negative numbers the more they become known. We've seen how Obama's negatives have increased over the last several months. Should he or Edwards become the nominee, their negative/positive ratings will rise/decline. Current polling and history shows this to be true.

[Tempest]

8. Bill Clinton and Bush had higher negative numbers

And they both got elected.

[More Than A Feeling]

4. I look forward to a total collapse for the GOP candidate.

We are going to seriously mess him up, whoever he is. The blogs are much stronger now than they were in 2004. Every slip is going to be on youtube, every bit of dirt will go winging its way through the 'sphere immediately. This time, it won't be GOP bloggers who are crowing.

[zulchzulu]

11. Getting "YouTubed" and "blogslammed" goes both ways

If you think the MSM will just not listen to the Repug bloggers and the Right-leaning YouTube submissions, you have another thing coming.

[killbotfactory]

6. Of the top three, Clinton brings us closest to defeat

She's been through years of demonization, one campaign season isn't long enough to undue all that damage.

[aquart]

7. "Barring a total collapse of the GOP candidate..." Uh, fellas........

Not even Republicans want the Republican candidates.

[flpoljunkie]

9. Except the Republicans are counting on Hillary to unite their base and get them to the polls to vote

for their Congressional candidates, as well as whomever they nominate for the presidency.

This is why they want Hillary.

[Hawaii Hiker]

12. Edwards is the most electable

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/edwards_now_leads_giuliani_by_eight_thompson_by_14