NH: Clinton 37% (+6), Obama 17% (-14), Edwards 14% (e), Richardson 7% (e). HRC breaks tie with BO

[draft_mario_cuomo]

HRC 37% (+6)
Obama 17% (-14+
Edwards 14% (e)
Richardson 7% (e)
Biden 4% (+2)
Kucinich 2% (+1)
Dodd 2% (+1)

ARG. If accurate, a massive decline for Obama in a month after gaining there for months. He actually reached a tie for the lead in the last poll after being at 14% in April.

[Kagemusha]

1. Too bad. At least he tried.

But hope was too indeed too audacious for America.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

2. It is too early to write BO off. Look at JE. He looked dead 2-3 months ago

Keep fighting and advocating for Obama!

[Kagemusha]

3. What the hell are you smoking? I've never advocated for Obama.

That's your complete misconception. I've advocated for hope, for civility, for forthrightness, for change... but I have never once, not a single time, fought or advocated for Obama. If he is for those things, I am glad for him; if he is not, I am sad for him. That is all.

If the people are not for those things, if the Democratic Party is not for those things, I am sad for them.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

4. I assumed you did given your dismay and Obama's big drop in NH

Sorry for my empathy. :eyes:

--If the people are not for those things, if the Democratic Party is not for those things, I am sad for them.==

We are. Obama has no monopoly on those things.

[durrrty libby]

5. I am not surprised at the Obama drops, but the huge downward

slide is more than I expected.

Thanks DMC :toast:

[draft_mario_cuomo]

6. Same here. It seems he has really fallen since the Youtube debate and the attacks on HRC

The funniest part of the ARG news is some of the same people who were promoting ARG's polls last month when they had BO taking the lead in SC and rising to a tie with HRC in NH suddenly think ARG's polling is inaccurate...

Let's recap. For the first time in any national poll he was caught by Edwards for 2nd in the Rass' poll, he dropped 14 points in NH and 12 points in SC. Tough week for the "hope" express. The silver lining is he has shown some improvement in Iowa, although he is still 3rd in all but two Iowa polls.

[Adelante]

7. Do you have a link to this poll?

Thank you.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

8. if you were truly interested in it you would easily google it nt

[Debi]

10. It's an ARG poll - here's the link

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Some people can be so rude! :eyes:

[Adelante]

11. Thank you, Debi

God forbid the OP might include it, but what can you do.

[Debi]

15. It's only appropriate to provide the link to a poll or article when writing about it

And not difficult to do. :hi:

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Adelante]

13. You're calling *me* a scumbag?

When you deliberately misrepresented the polling information on the Iowa Time poll?

You're getting more pathetic with each passing day, my dear. You should go rowing or something and work it off.

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Debi]

14. A simple act of kindness is not difficult to perform

Ever tried being the better person?

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Debi]

18. Why don't you just put the person on Ignore and try to enjoy being here at DU?

Unless you like the fighting and seek it out?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

19. I am not John Kerry. When I get swiftboated I respond

To remain silent in the face of smears gives the appearance that the smears are true.

[Debi]

20. Oh, Jesus - are you really trying to compare someone being disagreeable on a

political discussion board (and anonymous one at that) with people putting ads on national television as a man runs for President?

That's a bit of a reach.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

21. Smears are smears and must be fought against nt

[Debi]

22. No they don't - you are just looking for a fight

and since the other poster is ignoring you - you're now fighting with me.

Well, you'll just have to play with yourself on this one - I'm tire of it.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

23. The other poster continuned the smear several times in another thread

Just minutes ago she repeated the smear. Where are you on that? Selective faux outrage?

[Tejanocrat]

9. This suggests Edwards would win Iowa and finish a very strong second in New Hampshire, too:

If you believe Chris Bowers's polling analysis (which Hillary supporters were recently touting), Edwards is currently in the position to finish a very strong second in New Hampshire after winning Iowa.

Bowers has calculated the Iowa caucus's effect on the New Hampshire primary results as follows -

1st in Iowa = + 14.5 in NH
2nd in Iowa = + 3.2 in NH
3rd in Iowa = - 3.5 in NH
4th in Iowa = - 4.4 in NH

Times Magazine's most recent Iowa poll shows Edwards winning Iowa:

29% John Edwards
24% Hillary Clinton
22% Barack Obama
11% Bill Richardson

By Bowers's analysis, applied to the most recent poll in New Hampshire, shows Edwards finishing a very strong second in New Hampshire:

40% (37% from ARG NH poll + 3.2% for 2nd place in Iowa) Hillary Clinton
29% (14% from ARG NH poll + 14.5% for 1st place in Iowa) John Edwards
13% (17% from ARG NH poll - 3.5% for 3rd place in Iowa) Barack Obama
3% (7% from ARG NH poll - 4.4% for 4th place in Iowa) Bill Richardson

[bigdarryl]

24. If Edwards wins Iowa all beats are off he will get a bounce going into NH

so these polls mean shit. Edwards has done this before and knows if he wins Iowa for eight days until the NH race he will get all the news coverage.

[robcon]

25. This only proves that things change.

Things could go for the better for Obama just as easily. It's way, way too early to dismiss any of the major candidates.