Iowa ARG: HRC 28% (-2), BO 23% (+8), JE 20% (-1), BR 13% (e)

[draft_mario_cuomo]

ARG. For Team Cherry Picking this will be the designated ARG poll of choice this month, although the ARG IA poll was the one that was dismissed last month while the NH and SC polls were trumpeted from every rooftop.

[Mojambo]

1. These different polls are all over the place.

I find it hard to take any of them particularly seriously.

[TheWraith]

2. There are a couple other polls which have it pretty tight.

Edwards, Obama, and Clinton, in that order, all within 2-3 points of each other.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

3. This helps explain why. The tighter the screen, the better Edwards tends to do

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3488466

[Nimrod2005]

4. WOW!!! I am so proud of Obama

[TeamJordan23]

5. But DMC told me this week that BO is dropping to 4th. nm

[draft_mario_cuomo]

6. He lost the lead in NH and SC in the same ARG polls by losing 14 and 12 points respectively...

He is now 3rd in SC, his "firewall" state, and only three points ahead of Edwards in NH (within the margin of error) in the ARG polls after taking the lead in SC and reaching a tie for the lead in NH.

[TeamJordan23]

14. But you told me that he was going to be 4th in Iowa? I am confused. nm

[draft_mario_cuomo]

15. They voted in Iowa? Who won?

Where did I say he was going to finish 4th in Iowa? Thanks in advance.

[calteacherguy]

7. GoBama. Those Iowa folks recognize character and integrity.

All that's left is to get past the silly meme that Hillary is the most electable because she's "experienced."

[draft_mario_cuomo]

8. So in your view NH and SC folks did but changed their mind in the past month?

;)

[calteacherguy]

11. The cream always rises to the top, eventually. nt

[draft_mario_cuomo]

12. I agree. That explains Edwards' steady recent rise nt

[zulchzulu]

13. Team Obama in Iowa will have an exquisite ground game

I've seen it firsthand... and I'll be there too.

Party over here, party over there....ooo....ooo...

[fujiyama]

9. Is ARG all that accurate?

I don't remember being all that impressed with them in '04.

It's nice to see Obama up, but frankly I think ARG is a joke. And these polls are tough to really gauge. However, looking at the various polls, Edwards has a great shot at Iowa, which could give him the needed momentum in NH.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

10. I'm not sure. I do recall a lot of hype surrounding their polls last month

As to Edwards, see post #3. He does better when "likely voter" is screened more tightly in Iowa polls. That explains why in some polls he is up by as much as 8 points while in others he trails HRC by a couple, and is on par with Obama in some. The ARG poll is the first poll ever, as far as I know, to show Edwards in 3rd.

[illinoisprogressive]

16. DMC, you know that really nothing means squat until at least December...

I am glad that Obama is showing well but, we all know things will up and down all over right now.
I just don't look at them as it is so early and over half the people don't know who they want to support.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

17. The value they have is they show trends. They do not predict the final outcome

Kerry and Edwards were nowhere in Iowa at this time in 2003 while Gephardt and Dean traded the lead. I don't think anyone can seriously so the polls will predict the outcome, although they offer some hints. The real value of polls is they show trends and you can see whether what a campaign is doing at a given time is working or not.