My point is that party and ideological orientation are far more powerful factors in securing the White House than race or gender in 2008. Imagine for a second if Colin Powell had never served in the Bush White House, were thus untainted by the Iraq war, and were the Democratic nominee. Experience, off-the-charts national security credentials. He’d win in a landslide.
Yes, clearly, there’s a subset of voters who would vote against either Hillary or Barack just on the basis of bias. But 2008 is shaping up to be a magnificent year to be a Democrat — the kind of wave election that can overcome all sorts of built-in disadvantages.
Larry Sabato, a veteran handicapper, thinks Hillary needs the biggest boost: “Hillary is going to get the generic Democratic vote minus about 5 percent. That is to say, a Democrat will have to be heading toward a landslide for Hillary to win. Narrowly.”
Does the same go for Obama? “I’m still wondering about,” says Sabato. “I know he’s stronger than Hillary. Race is a plus or a minus — it can help you more than it can hurt you if you play it right. He’s the equivalent of putting a badge on a white suburbanite and the badge says ‘I’m not a racist; I voted for Obama.”
-- Tim Dickinson
http://www.rollingstone.com/nationalaffairs/index.php/2007/08/30/rolling-stone-national-affairs-daily/