WASHINGTON - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton has strengthened her standing as the national front-runner four months before the first primary votes, while rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards compete to be the "anti-Hillary."
Clinton's widely praised debate performances and a disciplined campaign effort with few mistakes have solidified the view that she is the candidate to beat. Obama and Edwards have tried to cut her down, raising questions about the former first lady's electability while touting their own credentials as agents of change.
The Democratic race has remained remarkably static, with none of Clinton's rivals able to challenge her lead in national and most state polls. Yet Iowa remains an elusive prize for her.
Bill Richardson's strong resume and a witty TV ad campaign have helped raise his profile in several early states, but his rocky debate performances have slowed his emergence from second-tier status. Senate veterans Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have struggled to break through, though Dodd got a boost from an endorsement by the largest firefighters union.
Florida and Michigan have complicated the nominating calendar by moving their contests to January. New Hampshire and Iowa likely will push up earlier to maintain their influence. The crush of early contests could make it virtually impossible for all but the best-funded candidates — Clinton and Obama — to campaign in the early voting states.
The Democratic Party has said it will strip Florida of its 210 delegates if its primary goes forward Jan. 29. That means candidates would need fewer delegates — 2,104 — to secure the nomination at next year's convention, scheduled for Aug. 25-28 in Denver.
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IOWA — Tentatively Jan. 14 (45 pledged delegates)
Nowhere is the race tighter than in Iowa, where Edwards' once solid lead has narrowed due to a strong challenge from Clinton, Obama and lately, Richardson.
Edwards remains formidable in Iowa, a state he must win to remain a player in the race. He has 14 field offices and a committed group of supporters, many of whom caucused for him in 2004.
Clinton — who early on trailed so badly in Iowa her deputy campaign manager urged her to skip the state — has redoubled her efforts in recent months. She's opened 19 field offices and has made frequent visits to the state, including a swing with her husband, former President Clinton, during the July 4 holiday and another planned for Labor Day.
Clinton has organized an "Apple Corps" of 167 Iowa teachers who have pledged to campaign and caucus for her. The campaign also began running its first television ads in Iowa, where Clinton criticized President Bush and vowed to stand up for "invisible" Americans.
Obama's campaign has 29 field offices and some of the party's most seasoned field hands. He's settled into a more traditional campaign style here, after local activists complained that he was favoring large rallies over smaller, more intimate appearances at community centers and private homes. He's counting on students and new voters for a strong showing.
Richardson is running an aggressive campaign here and has been praised for a smart use of TV ads in the state. Biden has also been advertising extensively, hoping for a breakthrough in the state.
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NEW HAMPSHIRE — Tentatively Jan. 22 (22 pledged delegates)
No candidate has been able to break Clinton's strong lead in the nation's first primary state, where polls consistently show her with about a third of the Democratic support. She has a superior organization and the backing of many of the state's leading Democrats. But she's also courting grass-roots activists, conducting conference calls with small groups of voters to answer their questions.
Obama says he still has to work to get to know state voters. He's been spending more time in small events where he can meet people one-on-one, and in his absence the campaign has organized book clubs to read his best-selling autobiographies and three-on-three tournaments in his favorite sport of basketball.
Richardson is emerging as a possible spoiler, rising in the polls to challenge Edwards for third place. Edwards is trying to shore up his position, taking a recent bus tour and holding policy roundtables with campaign surrogates.
Dodd's recent endorsement by the firefighters union — the state's largest — could help boost him out of low single digits.
All the candidates are targeting independents, who account for almost half the state's voters and who can vote in the Republican or Democratic primaries.
With so much turmoil in the nominating calendar, New Hampshire may move its primary into early January, risking DNC sanctions.
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MICHIGAN — Tentatively Jan. 15 (128 pledged delegates)
The legislature voted to move Michigan's primary from Feb. 26 to January 15, even though the DNC is likely to threaten to strip the state of its delegates if it makes the move, as the party did Florida's.
If Michigan makes the move, it could find its traditional campaign stops virtual ghost towns as far as Democratic campaigning goes. Edwards, Obama, Dodd, Richardson and Biden have all promised to skip states that break party rules by holding early primaries. Clinton was reviewing the pledge.
The decision not to compete in the state if it awards no delegates particularly impacts Edwards, who has counted on his strong ties to organized labor to perform well here.
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NEVADA — Jan. 19 (25 pledged delegates)
The unsettled calendar and uncertainty about how much Nevada's caucuses will matter to the nominating process prompted Edwards to pull staff earlier this month and redirect them to Iowa and New Hampshire. Clinton and Obama have said they will compete vigorously in the state despite its new and untested role in presidential politics.
Organized labor, especially the influential Culinary Workers Union, which represents most casino employees on the Las Vegas strip, is expected to play a key role in delivering voters to the caucuses. All the major contenders have actively courted the union's endorsement, but it's not expected to come until late in the year.
The candidates have made several trips to the state, in part because it's a rich source of campaign cash. Richardson, whose home state of New Mexico is near Nevada, has been a frequent visitor.
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SOUTH CAROLINA — Jan. 29 (45 pledged delegates)
Black voters are expected to account for more than half the turnout here and are the main focus of Clinton and Obama's efforts.
Both campaigns express confidence that they will win the black vote — Obama because he has a chance to be the first black president and Clinton because of the goodwill for her and her husband in the community.
In polls, Clinton has a strong advantage. The Obama campaign is working to chip at her support with a combination of staff outreach into the community and advertising on black radio.
The nearly $60 million Obama raised in the first half of the year gives him the resources to invest both in commercials and staff. The Illinois senator has more than double the number of people working for him in the state than any of his rivals.
Edwards, born in South Carolina, is hoping for a repeat of his primary win in the state four years ago but he remains stuck in third place.
Biden has secured endorsements from several black activists and officials and hopes for a good showing.
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FLORIDA — Jan. 29 (185 pledged delegates, 210 overall to be stripped if no agreement is reached)
The DNC voted earlier this month to strip Florida's delegates if it goes through with its Jan. 29 primary. But state Democrats have until the end of September to come up with an alternative.
If the DNC moves forward with its sanctions, the candidates who have pledged to skip states that break party rules by holding early primaries would cede Florida to Clinton, who crushes her rivals in most polls here. Clinton has indicated she will campaign in every state with a primary or caucus, and winning a state as large and diverse as Florida could make it a significant symbolic win.
Obama has concentrated his time and campaign resources on South Carolina, whose primary takes place the same day. Few other candidates have the resources to compete in Florida's vast and expensive media markets, particularly if the outcome is little more than a beauty contest.
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MEGA TUESDAY — Feb. 5 (As many as 25 states and at least 1,370 delegates)
Feb. 5 has turned into a national primary day, with contests coast to coast. While many states eagerly scheduled their primaries and caucuses on this date to play a bigger role in the nominating process, the sheer volume may mean many states will be deluged with campaign commercials but not see any of the candidates in person.
It's also unclear how significant these states will be, now that so many others have moved their contests into January.
With 370 pledged delegates, California remains the biggest prize. The state's extensive absentee and vote by mail program means that millions of voters can begin casting ballots as early as Jan. 7.
Clinton maintains a wide lead in California polls, and has launched "Hillcorps," an extensive volunteer outreach effort.
Obama is holding so-called "Camp Obama" training for volunteer organizers in California and in other Feb. 5 states such as Georgia, Missouri, Alabama and Illinois, his home state.
Clinton is expected to cruise in her home state of New York and neighboring New Jersey. Edwards hopes for a strong showing in Southern states such as Arkansas and his home state of North Carolina. Richardson is counting on strong support in New Mexico and other Western states, including Colorado, Arizona and Wyoming.
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