PRINCETON, NJ -- The Democratic presidential nomination could well be decided on the basis of whether Democratic primary and caucus voters prefer an experienced candidate or one who would make changing the way things are done in Washington his or her top priority.
Hillary Clinton -- with a comfortable lead in nomination preference polling at this point -- is making her case for the nomination on the basis of her extensive experience in Washington, including her eight years as first lady and her six-plus years as a U.S. senator. Her closest competitors, Barack Obama and John Edwards, have much less federal government experience -- Edwards served one six-year term in the U.S. Senate, and Obama is in his third year as a U.S. senator. Not surprisingly, Obama and Edwards are attempting to portray themselves as Washington outsiders and are focusing their campaign message on their ability to bring change to the nation's capital.
In spite of Clinton's comfortable lead in nomination preference polls, a recent Gallup Panel survey finds that -- in theory, at least -- Democrats by a large margin attach more importance to a candidate who would bring about change than to one who has experience.
The ability to bring about change is not something that only Democrats are seeking in the next president -- 93% of all Americans think this would be a desirable characteristic for the 44th president, including 89% of Republicans. Fifty-six percent of Americans (including 53% of Republicans) believe a lot of experience is desirable.
While change is more important than experience to Democrats by both measures, the results suggest that Democrats still value experience and see a lack of experience in Washington as a drawback. Thus, Democrats may not view Obama and Edwards as experienced enough to handle the job of president. The Clinton campaign seized upon Obama's promise in a recent debate to meet without preconditions with leaders of nations unfriendly to the United States as a "rookie mistake" that a more experienced political hand like herself would not make.
Other factors might also help explain why Clinton is leading the race for the Democratic nomination when the desire is much stronger for change than experience:
* In addition to touting her experience, Clinton is also promoting herself as an agent of change in Washington, so many Democrats hungry for change may see Clinton as capable of delivering that change, and possibly as better able to do that than Obama or Edwards. Thus, while most, if not all, "experience" voters may naturally align themselves with Clinton, many "change" voters may, too.
* Even though levels of reported attention to the campaign are high, Americans may not be intimately tuned in to the nomination fight to the point where they have well-formed opinions of the candidates and their messages. Thus, the crucial association that Obama and Edwards need to make to succeed -- that each is the "change candidate" -- may not yet have been made in voters' minds.
* Also, Clinton's lead may not be as solid as her wide margin suggests -- many polls show that many prospective primary voters have yet to make up their minds about whom they will vote for. A recent Gallup analysis showed that Clinton still leads among voters who are familiar with the three leading Democratic candidates, but by a smaller margin than her lead among all Democrats.
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28591
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