The Hill: Republicans "girding" to face the wrong Hillary...at their peril...

[SaveElmer]

Symbolic appeal must be unraveled

By David Hill

September 05, 2007
Too many Republican strategists are girding for the wrong fight. They are acting and talking like we’ll be facing Leona Helmsley, the notorious “Queen of Mean,” when our nominee faces off against Hillary Clinton. But that’s not the Hillary we’ll be confronting next November. Before this is over, Hillary’s candidacy will have more in common with Amelia Earhart’s first trans-Atlantic flight or Sally K. Ride’s first trip into space than Helmsley’s heartlessness.

Republicans who are eager to face Clinton completely fail to grasp the crucial role that symbolism plays in politics. Hillary bids to be the first-ever woman president of the United States, and that’s a big deal. It will overshadow every other issue and image in this campaign.

The miscalculations about Hillary’s candidacy are partially a byproduct of a preoccupation with polls. Some Republicans, particularly Karl Rove, have made much of Hillary’s negative or unfavorable ratings in Gallup surveys. But a trio of Gallup Poll analysts, responding specifically and assertively to Rove’s public statements, recently reviewed data showing that politicians can reverse negative perceptions. They also documented the volatility of Hillary’s own ratings, pointing out that her numbers improved after release of her autobiography in 2003.

It is curious that so many poll-driven pundits overlook the fact that Clinton’s negatives are clustered mainly among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are unlikely to vote for her in any circumstance. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, Hillary’s unfavorable ratings are modest and manageable. So it comes down to the pure independents and ticket-splitters. What do they think? In April, Gallup reported that among the 755 “pure independents” they interviewed in 2005 through 2007, Hillary had a 46 percent favorable rating, 43 percent unfavorable, and 12 percent no opinion. Too close to call, but ripe for symbolic exploitation.
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http://thehill.com/david-hill/symbolic-appeal-must-be-unraveled-2007-09-05.html

[TwilightGardener]

1. Good article.

[Dr Fate]

2. I might believe it if I didnt talk to so many Democrats all the time.

Sounds like a reasoned article until you actually spend some time talking to DEMS and other assorted red-staters at barber shops, bars, bus-stops, etc.

If you search your memory and look at how the media has torpedoed Democrats at every turn over the last 10 or so years, I dont really see them touting her run as a positive "historic" event once it is no longer DEM vs. DEM- more likely they will swiftboat her as soon as it is strategic for the GOP/media to do so...

Any of us who trusts ANY theory that presumes the freaking media will give DEMS a fair shake against the Republicans is making a huge mistake....

[SaveElmer]

4. ...

Sounds like a reasoned article until you actually spend some time talking to DEMS and other assorted red-staters at barber shops, bars, bus-stops, etc.

Do all the time...I find a significant amount of support for her...even a Republican friend of mine has made the switch...

I do live in a Red State btw

[Dr Fate]

7. I have not seen that. And I dont see the GOP owned media touting her campaign as a positive thing.

At least not once the DEM primary has ended and the Republican has been nominated.

You say you meet blue-collar Hillary enthusists wherever you go- fair enough- but I invite all DUers to ask themselves what they are seeing when they talk to regular people-especially non-political types...I can honestly say that I'm just not seeing the Hillary fever- except for claims here at DU...

Again, if you really want to rely on the hope/dream that the GOP owned media will tout the post primary Hillary campaign as an inspirational, historical event-then all I can say is good luck...

[SaveElmer]

11. I own a small business...

I network extensively with other small businessmen, plumbers, contractors, decorators, cleaners, landscapers etc...talk politics with them sometimes...some don't like Hillary, but the vast majority are more than willing to give her a look...many already support her...

The fedex driver who makes deliveries at my business came in asking who had the Hillary sticker on their car...mind you he is a good ole boy type, hunts, fishes...I told him that it was mine...he said he wanted to shake my hand and that Hillary was his choice...

Happens all the time, in the parking lot of the grocery store, at restaurants etc...

And in the year or so I have had that sticker on my car, I have gotten one negative reaction...a woman sneered some comment to me about Hillary as she popped out of her Escalade...my guess is no Democrat is getting her support...

[wyldwolf]

12. "a woman sneered...as she popped out of her Escalade." An Obama Republican?

[Dr Fate]

14. I would have to take your word for it. In Augusta GA that would be a fairy tale.

I realize that you would have to take my word for it too-that is why I invite DUers who spend time in red-states to search their memories concerning their own experiences. My guess is that if they are being honest with themselves, they will agree with my assessment more than lean towards yours- but only time will tell-if she wins, I pray you are right!!!

Also-I'll say it again- if we think the GOP owned media will present her run as something positive and historic, we are making a mistake.

[CTyankee]

8. "barber shops and bars" sound like predominantly male enclaves.

So I think you've loaded the dice against her in your "surveys."

I don't go to too many bars, but I think I will ask my hairdresser next time I go to my predominantly female day spa. Of course, we are in a blue city in a blue state, so that will need to be factored in.

Usually, I hate these personal surveys because they can't really give you anything more than just a bit of anecdotal stuff, but it might be fun!

[Dr Fate]

9. You intentionally left out "bus stops" which I also mentioned. And I like bars with girls.

The two girls in my office prefer Obama, btw.

I agree with you that this is all anecdotal-but I tend to trust my own experiences over media driven polls.

My larger point pertains to the GOP owned media- if we want to beleive that once the nomination is over- that the GOP/media will turn her into some "historic" hero ala the next Martin Luther King, we are being silly.

[CTyankee]

15. Oh, I don't know, even tho I get what you are saying. It may be that the media

senses that the country hates Bush and if Hillary is the candidate, they may want to do some swooning on their own. It'll be fun to watch.

My guess is that bus stops would have a predominately female population, altho my husband takes a bus to work every day. I'm not against bars, they just bore me (I don't drink very much altho I do enjoy one glass of wine). There are plenty of women of all ages in bars here...

[pnwmom]

22. How many young women have you been talking to?

The young women I know are very excited. HRC could draw in a number of first time voters.

The media won't give ANY Dem a fair shake, we know that. But HRC does know how to fight. We know that, too.

[Dr Fate]

24. The 4 women that I am closest to prefer Obama. I have only personally met 2 Hillary supporters.

One is a male Labor negotiator on (for the employer, not the Union, although he used to be a Union negotiator too) and my Uncle- who is indeed a white male in a red-state in his 60's-albeit a life-long partisan DEM...

My girlfriend prefers Obama simply because he is "new"- and she is aware that, wrongfully or not, most folks don't really trust Hillary all the way.

I can honestly say that what little support for Hillary there is at DU does not mirror anything I see on the ground-I see more support for her here than anywhere- and I invite all DUers who have spent time in red states or among centrists to search their minds and honestly compare their own experiences to mine one way or the other.

My instinct is that most people know I am right.

Time will tell- but I can honestly say that I am just not seeing it.

[Bucky]

29. Sadly, my sister--as big a yellow dog as me--is virulently anti-Hillary

My mom goes nuts for Mrs Clinton, but neither of her 40-something children shares her enthusiasm. She most perplexed by my sister's loathing of Mrs Dog. As the wonk of the family, my reservations about her are more Constitutional in character. Nominating Clinton is unwhiggish. But no rational person thinks like me. The interesting thing to me is the number of Democratic and independent women I know socially and at work who just roll their eyes whenever Clinton gets mentioned as a possible president. There may be some pride at the thought of shattering the glass ceiling, but quite a few people are not happy with this particular vehicle.

Among the Democrats I know, everyone but my sister says that if she gets nominated, they'll do their duty, however.

I continue to assert that if the first woman president just happens to be the wife of the last popular president, I'm not sure just how much the glass ceiling was "shattered," per se.

[pnwmom]

30. My teenage nieces in a very red state are very excited about HRC running.

Guess it comes down to who you know.

[Savannahmann]

3. I don't think so.

If Hillary thinks she is going to win based upon the symbolic nature of her campaign, I would suggest she drop out of the race now.

The people want someone to support, someone to vote for, and that takes ideals. It takes the progressive ideals we have all agreed upon and supported the Democrats for. We want healthcare for all, we need it, and we don't have it. We need to end this self defeating war on terror, and we need to stop supporting Bush Co. and their crimes. We need honesty in Government, and we should be campaigning on it.

Instead, we are out there running as Republican lite. All of our potentials who are in the Senate now voted for the Patriot Act. Hardly a big vote for Civil Liberties. The Republicans lost running on these issues in 2006, so why in the world would we run on them in 2008?

We can't get Hillary elected on another Any Body But Bush (ABBB) campaign like we ran with John Kerry. Come on friends, when we have a candidate with Kerry's positives, and we are left with a campaign motto of "Any Body But Bush" We are totally screwed. Run on the issues, tell the people what you believe, tell them the programs you envision, and they will flock to you in overwhelming numbers.

Any Body But Bush, or worse It's Time For A Woman won't win this one. Issues will.

[Nightjock]

5. Interesting

Senator Clinton is my last choice for the nomination but I really like this article. I'm going to show it to my wife who has Hillary as her first choice (unless AL Gore gets in. Than Mrs. Clinton falls to #2)

[CTyankee]

6. Nice analysis. I very much enjoyed, and was surprised by, Hillary's autobiography.

I feared it might be stuffy and pompous, but I found it very warm and even funny. It caused me to think again about her.

But for now, I am supporting John Edwards. However, the symbolism of Hillary's candidacy isn't lost on me since I have 2 daughters and 3 granddaughters. As a matter of fact, my 9 year old granddaughter is already campaigning for Hillary and admonishing our family that they "have" to vote for Hillary because there has never been a woman president! Well, we Dems may get that chance...

[emilyg]

10. I like your granddaughter.

[CTyankee]

18. Oh, she's something. When she was 8 she was saving the polar bears

from global warming with another like minded friend. They were putting together a neighborhood awareness type of campaign. When she was 7 she was making posters about Darfur. This was a kid who decided she wanted to learn sign language when she was 4...

[emilyg]

19. Future prez. material.

[CTyankee]

20. Well, I didn't want to say that, but...

since you mentioned it, well, yes.:blush:

[AX10]

13. Hillary's "negatives" are not true negatives. They are derived from...

the lies that came from the Republican party's echo chamber. Besides, Hillary does not have the noose of Bush's disasters on her neck, that noose is around the neck of the Republicans running next year.

[NobleCynic]

25. It's completely unfair

but negatives from lies can be just as dangerous as negatives derived from truth. Al Gore and the Internet? Kerry and the Swift Boat Veterans? A lie not adequately countered is a truth in politics.

She still has an uphill battle ahead in countering all of the ridiculous beliefs many Republicans hold about her. In addition to the general misogyny of the American electorate.

[Adelante]

16. I don't think this is what it is

The image of Hillary as the "Queen of Mean" as promulgated by the right wing throughout the 90s isn't falling apart because she may be the first woman president, although that surely is important symbolism, but because the public is seeing her differently. They are seeing the human being who survived all of it, in her public and private lives, triumphed both personally and politically. They are seeing her as an individual personality - warm, gracious, funny, happy, smart, and capable. This is what is surprising voters, I think, the fullness of the personhood, even more than the first female president possibility, which I don't mean to downplay by saying this.

[SaveElmer]

17. I think you are right...the writer wouldn't want to ascribe any of this to her...

As he is a Republican...I think as you point out both things factor in...

[cobalt1999]

21. The republicans are underestimating her appeal.

To the republicans: "Be careful what you wish for...you just might get it".

[ShortnFiery]

23. The Republicans are truly "keeping their powder dry" ...

Our entire party will be lucky to hold onto our political a**es if HRC scores the nomination. 24/7 = night of the long knives. :scared:

[Dr Fate]

26. I'll say this much- the GOP actually USES their gun powder on us.

When they happen to be keeping it dry, they really do plan on USING it some point.

When you hear about dry powder DEMS, it's just another stall/run-out-the-clock excuse.

I agree with you- if one notes how the DLC and other "centrists" who call the shots suck at fighting the GOP/media as it is, we havent seen anything yet.

[Bucky]

27. They smeared her into silence before and they can smear her into defeat again.

Clinton's numbers got better because less fire has been coming her way. After the nomination, I fear she's going to find out that her new friend Rupert isn't quite as fair and accomodating as he's been acting. I'm not calling it a set up, but only a fool could fail to see that the Foxes of the universe have been holding their fire on Clinton since 2001. Once she's the sole target on their field, they'll be more than well armed to run her name back into the dirt.

It's not fair, but she really is there best hope for 2008.

[MethuenProgressive]

28. The GOP can't beat her - - - without help from Democrats.

And that's a fact, Jack.