From the NY Daily News: Why America's Mayor will not be the GOP's candidate

[Lobster Martini]

(LM: It was not that long ago that most sane people would have bet on Rudy Giuliani winning the GOP nomination. Considering that none of the other Republican candidates could inspire a yawn from an insomniac, Rudy’s chances looked pretty good. They do not look so good now. When your presidential campaign is threatened by a zombie like Fred Thompson and a wax likeness of Mitt Romney from Madame Tussaud’s, you are simply not connecting with people.

If this writer is correct, Rudy will be holding his head in his hands and weeping before "Tsunami Tuesday".)

Rudy Giuliani is in trouble. Big trouble.

Yes, Giuliani - the national front-runner for months now - holds close to a five-point lead over former Sen. Fred Thompson in the latest Real Clear Politics averages. But there are big warning signs that make a Giuliani nomination a dubious proposition at best.

<snip>

Beginning with the Iowa caucuses, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds a decisive 16-point lead in the Real Clear Politics averages. Giuliani is running a poor second, with no signs of movement or growth over the last month. As we know from the case of John Kerry in 2004, Iowa's winner brings big momentum into future primaries.

Moving to New Hampshire, the first primary, the Giuliani candidacy has stalled. You would expect the famously independent state to be a Giuliani stronghold, but his numbers there are flat. Romney, the former governor of a neighboring state, now leads by an average of nine points.

So Hizzoner faces the very real prospect of losing both Iowa and New Hampshire before heading to what could be a decisive set of primaries and caucuses in Nevada and South Carolina. Here again, Giuliani is in trouble. In Nevada, Romney registered a 10-point lead over Giuliani in the last statewide poll. This is likely the result of Giuliani's relatively soft stances on immigration and guns. Nevada caucus-goers care deeply about both.

For a while, South Carolina looked more encouraging, with Giuliani getting surprising support from the state's heavy contingent of military veterans. But he's now in a statistical tie with Thompson. I'd put my money on the former southern senator.

<snip>

Mark my words: Giuliani will not be the GOP's nominee. Instead, he will join a long list including Howard Dean, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and others who owned national polls early - only to fizzle once the real votes were counted.

(Link: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2007/09/13/2007-09-13_why_americas_mayor_will_not_be_the_gops_.html)

[BridgeTheGap]

1. I never could see the Republican base supporting this guy

because of his positions on a number of issues.
I don't think the g.o.p. base recognizes (or cares) that he is also a fraud.

[speedoo]

2. Heh. Even Republicans can see what a phony he is.

Rudy's done, and America is better off for it. Only thing that might save him now is the fact that all his competitors have nothing to offer either, as proven by the numbers an incompetent boob like Thompson is putting up in polls.

When he finally announces his candidacy is done, firefighters everywhere will celebrate.

[speedoo]

3. K&R.