SC Poll: Obama 35.4, Clinton 30.7 among black voters (Winthrop University)

[Colobo]

http://www.thestate.com/politics/story/172609.html

GOBAMA!

[Adelante]

1. Among African-Americans

To be clear.

[jefferson_dem]

2. Nice foundation...

Now if Clyburn would come out with that endorsement for Obama...things in the Palmetto State would be looking *really* good.

[Skip Intro]

3. He might have a shot in SC.

I think Hillary will win SC, but of the first three Obama could pull an upset here, imho. I live in the Charleston area btw, and have seen two Dem bumperstickers ("W" stickers have all but disappeared, btw), one was for Obama, one was for Hillary. Personally, while I think Hillary would make a better president (imho), I'm considering voting in the repuke primary here, probably for Ron Paul. Registered voters can vote in either primary, but not both. I voted for mccain in 2000, doing the little I could to stop bush, even way back then.


That was kind of rambling, wasn't it?

[Alamom]

4. & more than a third of black women said they were undecided ....

However, more than a third of black women said they were undecided about who to vote for in the state’s Jan. 29 Democratic presidential primary.

>

The poll is based on telephone surveys of nearly 700 black South Carolinians.

same link

[Colobo]

5. Let's hope Obama is able to get their votes!

[alteredstate]

24. We're gonna work really, really hard to make that happen!

:)

[Tellurian]

21. LATimes Poll in South Carolina is showing Clinton 45%, Obama 27%, Edwards 7%

September 11, 2007 L.A. Times/Bloomberg South Carolina poll (PDF): Clinton 45%, Obama 27%, Edwards 7%

[Netbeavis]

6. If I were Obama, the only one I'd be worried about is Edwards

any votes for Edwards is a vote that is taken away from Obama. Someone leaning towards Edwards definately would not be a Hillary supporter. Edwards, a good-ol christian boy from 'Carolina polls still polls favorably in this state.

Don't watch Hillary's poll numbers, watch Edwards. If he goes down, those are votes that will probably swing to Barack and give him the boost. If Edwards continues to go up, he'll win SC.

my two cents.

[Adelante]

9. I dunno

If somebody was holding a gun to my head and I had to vote for Clinton or Edwards, it would be Clinton. I can't imagine I am alone. I think netroots folks may follow your two cents, though.

[Netbeavis]

11. yeah, but don't underestimate the "Southern Christian Boy" appeal

That really goes a long way in this state.

Why, I'll never know.

[Adelante]

12. I agree with you on one thing very strongly

Obama needs to be fighting Edwards hard.

[Netbeavis]

13. or else Obama could get "Nader'd"

By my best estimates, and I'm no James Carville (lol) any splitting of votes help Hillary more than the others.

[BeyondGeography]

16. You're not alone

Edwards has so many holes in his personal and political story he would be devoured in the GE. His positions such as they are now are more palatable to me than Hillary's, but she has been more consistent over the years (for better or worse than Edwards...then again, who hasn't?) and she is good at avoiding the self-inflicted wound, another Edwards specialty. Plus, in listening to the two over the years, I have concluded she's much smarter.

[Netbeavis]

25. Agreed. I think she is smarter

Here is where I think voters will go...nothing scientific here by this layman observer.

Clinton - gives the appearance of experience. After 8 years of Bush's "on the job training" she appeals to those who want someone perceived to have wisdom from experience, not hunches. She has been in the public eye for nearly 20 years and that helps people think they know what they are getting with her despite the right-wing smear machine.

Obama - gives the appearance of a sharp change from status quo, but has to win over people who do not want another president learning through "on the job training". Untested. This is why the criticisms about his experience tend to have a little bite to them more than they should.

Edwards - gives the appearance of JFK meets WJC. Young, handsome, christian male who appeals to many moderates and still espouses change. Appears to be a little more moderate in the views than Obama. He may carry some of the Kerry support and apathy by people who feel Kerry/Edwards should have won in '04.

This is why once again I say watch Edwards poll numbers. Since he and Obama are pretty much offering the same thing (spare me the details as they mean noting once they get elected), as Edwards goes up or down, Obama will be either the beneficiary or source of his votes. Clinton will march on either way focusing on the undecided to try and cinch up the votes.

[MannyGoldstein]

7. Hillary Clinton Is The Natural Choice For African Americans

She alone amongst the candidates knows how it feels to be a slave!

When you look at the way the House of Representatives has been run, it has been run like a plantation, and you know what I'm talking about" - Hillary Clinton during a Martin Luther King Jr. Day event, 2006

[Colobo]

8. Hahahahahahaaaa!!! Love that quote!

[MannyGoldstein]

10. If Only People Knew The Terrible Suffering That Clinton's Had To Endure

Each night I cry, thinking of her plight. But I know that the Lord is only purifying her, preparing her for thr trials to come.

[illinoisprogressive]

20. Manny, get a grip. because she face a few tough things is not reason to vote for her

that is just dumb.
Everyone faces trials and tribulations. I've had to face alot of really bad things, so put me in the white house. I suffered so I earned it.
And, Hillary is a white woman. How is a white woman better for blacks?

[MannyGoldstein]

23. She Has Suffered Terribly... For The Children!

You do know that this is just :sarcasm:, no? If not, I apologize.

In reality, I'd rather be plagued by the demon spawn of red ants and pubic lice than have Mrs. Clinton as President, outsourcing the few jobs that she and her mate somehow missed, and playing "deck 'em!!!" diplomacy with whatever small country is polling poorly at the moment.

[beaconess]

18. And who is the "natural choice" for white Americans?

I am SO sick of some people assuming that black voters are different than any other demographic - that we all think and vote the same way - or that we should.

There is no "natural choice" for black Americans any more than there is a "natural choice" for white Americans. We are just as discerning and capable of thinking for ourselves and voting our interests - which, by the way, are not all the same - as white people.

[Freddie Stubbs]

14. If Obama can only win a slim plularity of African American voters, his campaign is in big trouble

[Imagevision]

15. After hearing Obama I believe the Hillary bounce will be short lived, she

needs to be in a one on one debate with Obama but she would never go for it...

[Colobo]

17. Obama should actually challenge her publicly to a debate. Accept the one

in Harlem, and make it look like Edwards doesn't exist.

[Netbeavis]

26. why not hold them at Bill Clinton's Harlem office?

where Obama would actually face a crowd that was not pumped full of supporting cheerleaders?

[Tellurian]

27. Obama would be petrified to face Hillary in a debate..

I doubt he'd accept an invitation for a one on one debate. He's knows Hillary would bury him.
One more public stumble, and Edwards would be Hill's competition not Obama.

[Dawgs]

29. "I doubt he'd accept an invitation for a one on one debate."

Yeah, after he was cheered and she was booed, when they confronted each other at the debate in Chicago, I'm sure he'd be really scared.

Isn't it time you start writing grown up comments?

[Tellurian]

30. Isn't it about time you start telling the Truth?

Obama has yet to win a single debate to date..

[Colobo]

33. Obama vs. Clinton. Anywhere, anytime. It's what America wants to see.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

31. She might just

mop the floor with him.

[Colobo]

34. That won't happen. She doesn't have what it takes to do such thing.

The other way around is very possible, though.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

35. Debates are

not like speeches you got be specific. They could have a speech competition and Obama mops the floor.

[Colobo]

37. I wanna see Obama and Clinton go at it in a one on one debate.

I know Obama would win it.

[illinoisprogressive]

19. hahahahahahahahahaha. you kick, Katz.

[illinoisprogressive]

22. Many underestimate Obama. There has been a strategy in place since the beginning.

He was purposely held back to keep him from peaking too early.
And, you can see the beginnings of a huge and powerful push this fall.

[Tellurian]

28. Really, interesting.... Got a link?

[Capn Sunshine]

38. Not exactly something we post online

Just like "Hillary is inevitable" as a strategy; if you were in on the campaign strategy sessions, you know about it.

[William769]

32. So you are trying to make this about race now?

[rinsd]

36. You seem to have a bad link there Katz.

Here's another - http://www.thestate.com/news/story/173113.html


THE PRESIDENCY AND POLITICS
A look at what black South Carolinians think about the race for president and the political parties

The presidency


In which presidential primary will you vote?Democratic 83%
Republican 7%
Neither 10%

Among those saying they would vote Democratic: Which of these candidates would you vote for? (1)Barack Obama 35%
Hillary Clinton 31%
John Edwards 3%
Undecided 29%

Black men prefer:Obama 42%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 3%
Undecided 22%

Black women prefer: Obama 31%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 3%
Undecided 34%

Do you think white Americans would be willing to vote for an African-American for president?Yes 59%
No 31%
Don’t know 10%

The parties


Do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, independent or something else?Democrat 67%
Independent 19%
Republican 3%
Something else 8%

Do you think the national Democratic Party has taken black voters for granted?Yes 56%
No 32%
Not sure 12 %

Do you think the state Democratic Party in South Carolina has taken black voters for granted?Yes 57%
No 27%
Not sure 15%

Do you feel the Republican Party is working to attract black voters?Yes 53%
No 39%
Not sure 7%

Do you think the Republican Party effort to attract black voters is effective?Very effective 9%
Somewhat 52%
Not very 21%
Not at all 14%
Not sure 3%
(1) — Only 45 of the more than 650 respondents surveyed identified themselves as Republicans — a pool too small to extract poll data from. The 45 respondents were asked which GOP candidate they planned to support. Forty-seven percent were undecided; 21 percent said they would support former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson from Tennessee. In some sections listed above, responses do not add up to 100 percent because respondents declined to answer.

SOURCE: Winthrop/ETV poll