Why Hillary will Lose the Primary

[jgraz]

http://scholarsandrogues.wordpress.com/2007/09/13/why-hillary-will-lose-the-primary-the-hidden-cross-over-vote

Why Hillary will Lose the Primary -- The Hidden Crossover Vote

Posted on September 13, 2007 by Scholars & Rogues

Guest Scrogue Brandon Tutt

There was only one vote for a candidate for public office that I have ever regretted. It was the 2000 Democratic primaries in Massachusetts where I pulled the lever for Bill Bradley over Al Gore. I had nothing against Gore, I just thought Bradley was a better candidate and would make a better president. But my wife - forever a more wise and astute creature than myself - registered as a Republican and voted for McCain to stop Bush from getting the nomination. Her desire to keep the worst candidate out of office overcame her desire to vote for the best candidate. If only more people followed her lead.

Fast-forward to early 2008: Primaries are about to begin and there is only one candidate Republicans feel passionate about: Hillary Clinton. None of their candidates are looking that appealing (”None of the above” is a current Republican frontrunner) and the phrase “President Hillary” fills them with dread. But she is still topping the polls while Bush’s approval rating is barely pushing 30%. Conservatives see which way the wind is blowing; the country is swinging back to the Left and bringing the presidency with it.

So what are their options?

1. Vote for their “Ron Paul” - the candidate they like the best even though he’d have a hard time getting enough electoral votes.


2. Vote for their “John Kerry” - the Republican candidate who they think has the best shot at beating Hillary, even though he doesn’t share their ideals and will probably end up just like Kerry.


3. Wait and vote for an independent like Michael Bloomberg - even though he’ll do what Perot did; throw the race to the Clintons.


4. Register as a Democrat for a day and vote for the Democratic candidate that can stop Hillary from getting the nomination.

Like Iraq, there are “no good options” here. Faithful Republicans will always vote for their party’s ticket come November, but they despise Hillary so much that they will do whatever it takes keep her from the White House, even register as a Democrat. So, when the snow starts to fall, don’t be surprised if conservative blogs offer advice on how to vote in the Democratic primaries.

More at http://scholarsandrogues.wordpress.com/2007/09/13/why-hillary-will-lose-the-primary-the-hidden-cross-over-vote

[Glorfindel]

1. That's certainly the case here in Darkest Mississippi

Repukes vote in the Democratic primary for the candidate they consider the weakest of the lot, and then vote Repuke in the general election. This year more than 60% voted in the Democratic primary, but they'll all vote for Haley Barbour and Trent Lott come the general election. Hell, they'll probably vote the straight Repuke ticket, except maybe for Gene Taylor, the famous DINO who is my congressperson.

[Orangepeel]

2. those people will be balanced out by repubs who vote FOR her cuz they think she's beatable

I'm supporting Edwards, mostly because I like his focus on poverty and union support, and a little bit because I think he'll have the least difficult time in the general.

So, I have nothing against considering electability as one of the criteria. But worrying about how crossover republicans will vote in the primary? What's the point?

[AtomicKitten]

3. ah. the ubiquitous crossover vote

There are so many avenues for monkeying with the opposition that have been around for a long, long time.
It's a crapshoot guessing how it will play out, but I always enjoy entertaining predictions. It could be right, or not.

[jgraz]

5. My GF is still a registered Repug from the 2000 primary.

I like her anyway.

[AtomicKitten]

22. she must have awesome curb appeal

[jgraz]

23. She does

[Bitwit1234]

4. So democrats out number republicans 4 to 1 in most states

BUT the republicans can vote for someone other than Hillary and that person will win. Damn I didn't know democrats were such terrible at math.

[Sukie1941]

7. Here in Oregon

it rains so much during primaries that I doubt anyone will want to go out to change their voter's registration.

Actually, we vote by mail, but I am not sure if we have to re-register in person or not.

[BrotherBuzz]

34. Re-register through the mail

The application requires postage in California. Just wondering, who pays the postage for voting in Oregon?

[Sukie1941]

41. Each voter pays for the vote-by-mail

envelope and contents. It adds up to no more than one regular postage stamp.

[BrotherBuzz]

42. As small as it is, it's still might be considered a poll tax.

Can the ballot be hand carried to the Registrar of Voters? Matter of principle, or something. :shrug:

[Clintonista2]

6. I thought Republicans *wanted* Hillary to get the nomination?

At least that's what I've been hearing about 1000 times a day on DU. So wouldn't they register as dems to vote FOR her?

[jgraz]

8. The smart Republicans do

Lucky for us, there aren't that many of them.

[Clintonista2]

10. "Smart Republican" is an oxymoron...

[jgraz]

11. Not at all.

There are three kinds of Republicans:

1. Millionaires


2. Billionaires


3. Dumbasses

Most of them are #3.

[ProSense]

19. "My GF is still a registered Repug from the 2000 primary."

Hope she's in category 1 or 2.

[jgraz]

21. Well, she's not a "real" repug, she just really didn't want Bush in 2000

But I'm pretty sure she's in group #1 anyway.

[Truth2Tell]

9. Well, actually, IMO, Republicans per se

don't want Hillary to get the nom - only the corporate masters who pull the Republican puppet strings do. That way they can't lose.

[Colobo]

12. Obama needs to win our primary. That's a fact.

[babylonsister]

13. Bloomberg isn't running and they'd be lucky to have a John Kerry - so would we. nt

[jgraz]

15. I feel lucky we had him in 2004. Who's with me??

* cricket noise *

* cricket noise *

* cricket noise *

* cricket noise *

[babylonsister]

16. Lame. nt

[jgraz]

17. Yes, he was.

[babylonsister]

18. Try this tomorrow when anyone's around. You won't get away with it.

Or you will. Whatever.

[blm]

28. Best anti-corruption, open government Democrat we have in DC - and you don't

like or respect him.

The RNC stole that election for Bush. The DNC let them and handed over Kerry's votes to the RNC tactics.

You haven't heard about the US attorney firings and why the RNC was involved?

You haven't heard about Rather's investigative report that the electronic voting machine 'problems' were set up as early as 1999?

Had the DNC worked to counter the RNC's tactics Kerry's votes would have been cast and counted and Kerry would be in office. Instead you heckle Kerry just like TeamClinton and McAuliffe's DNC wrote in their script.

[jgraz]

30. We've done this dance before

My only problem with Kerry is that he was a terrible candidate and he refused to fight when he knew the election was stolen.

When he dropped out of the race, most of us dropped this argument. There's nothing to be gained by continuing to post these random comments about how "lucky" we'd be to have him as a candidate.

[blm]

31. It's inconsistent to say the election was stolen AND to blame Kerry for the loss.

The evidence is pointing to YEARS of RNC manipulations to steal elections.

Terry McAuliffe oversaw the collapse of party organization in Ohio - the Ohio party infrastructure was too weakened in every area where they monitored the election process, with the result that there was no legal evidence for ANY Dem nominee to fight in court.

What you know you know doesn't seem to stop you from attacking and blaming Kerry just as McAuliffe and Clinton loyalists have been doing for years. Just as they made sure Democrats blamed Gore for the loss instead of the lack of security in the voting process.

You're rewarding their ploys every time you use the same tactic and the same target they did and still do.

[jgraz]

32. No, it's not

The 2006 elections were stolen, they just weren't stolen enough. There's no way the 2004 election should have been close enough to steal. Plus, Kerry is on record saying he knew it was stolen, yet he decided not to fight in order to preserve his "viability" for another run.

That's my problem with Kerry, plain and simple. Yes, there are other people who can take some blame, but he was at the top of the ticket and has the ultimate responsibility for the failure.

[blm]

35. 2006 had DEAN as DNC chair who was WATCHING for fraud.

That is why 2006 was more secure. Dean had already started strengthening party infrastructure in states where it had been left to collapse since 1997.

Kerry had no LEGAL case to make and had to deal with that reality.

Keep blaming him and diverting blame from where it should be - that will help secure elections. Your blaming Kerry is certainly useful for those whose intentions were that Kerry never get into the oval office to open government to the people as they knew he would do - The Bushes, GOPs and the powerful Dems who would be exposed.

[jgraz]

36. Instead of wishful thinking, you should do some actual research

There's every indication that there was just as much or more fraud in 06 as there was in 04. Rove, et al just didn't anticipate the Foley scandal hitting so late.

Why do you think Buh and Rove were so confident with THE math? Why were the exits polls off in so many races? And why were there still so many close races that somehow fell to the Rethugs?

Now, how much of that would have happened had Kerry decided to fight in 04? I guess we'll never know.

[blm]

37. There wasn't MORE fraud in 2006 - there was more VIGILANCE in 2006

to stop some of the attempts and to follow up on suspect actions as a PARTY INITIATIVE.

Blackwell was far too timid by Nov2006 with all the scrutiny on his actions (including the Woodward book) to pull off half the crap he did in 2004.

But you know what the bottom line to all this is for me? You STILL direct blame only to Kerry and mock him incessantly as the reason Bush is in office and THAT is what is so wrong - and it deflects from the rEAL reasons why and how that election was stolen.

Plus, you use your energy to complain about the best Democrat we ever had in DC when it comes to exposing corruption and fighting for open government. So, it shows you don't have respect for those issues or that type of lawmaker.

Look at all the issues Conyers has brought forward - does he deserve scorn because other Dems and the newsmedia have kept him from succeeding on those issues?

[saracat]

14. I think Edwards may win by default! And I couldn't be happier!

He would be a great President!

[flyarm]

20. i still believe Gore is getting in it! ..eom

[illinoisprogressive]

24. 2 things. If nominated, Hillary will be the Kerry of 08. Repukes

do not think like us. they vote on emotion and the heart. And that is why the usually win.
we vote on the head and over think. Hillary is who the dems think will beat republicans but, as usual, our party is keeping up it's record for terrible candidate picking. We always do this and we always lose.

the repukes want to run against her. they know she's our weakest candidate and they cannot wait to go after her and keep the white house.

It's sad we don't learn to vote for who we like, quit thinking so damn much and realize that if we like who we vote for, then we stand the chance of indies and jumping ship repukes. but, only if it's not Hillary.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. If She's So Weak Why Is She Pounding The Goopers In Head To Head Matchups?

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

[blm]

29. I LOVE KERRY because he was the best candidate and won. RNC stole that election for Bush

and you would think some of you would KNOW BETTER BY NOW.

What the eff do you THINK the US attorney firings are about and why the RNC is proving to be involved?

What the eff do you think Rather's investigation of electronic voting machine 'problems' is about?

You think somehow any other Democrat would have won because they would have had a different DNC in place who secured the election process in 2004?

Kerry WON. RNC stole that election for Bush and they did it in the four years BEFORE election day. The DNC chair then sat in restaurants in DC for 4yrs and let them do it.

And PS - if you find reason to dump on the lawmaker in DC who has racked up the best record in DC on open government issues, and uncovered and exposed the most government corruption then that speaks to YOUR priorities. Side against him and you side with the corruption and closed government wing who has long worked against him.

[Netbeavis]

25. You have to be registered in the party to vote before you can vote in the primaries

Unlike the general election, GOP just can't go into the polls and vote in the Democratic primaries and vice versa.

So you're saying that the GOP voters will change party affiliations in order to stack the Dem primary ticket?

I don't think so.


So that theory is shot.

[Jim Lane]

40. It depends on the state

Some states allow the voter to show up and specify which party's primary ballot s/he wants. Others require a change in registration but allow the on-the-spot change. Still others require an advance change in registration, but not very far in advance. In all these instances, the kind of manipulation discussed in the OP is feasible.

In the past, the greatest incentive for voting outside one's "real" party has been that one party has a genuine contest and the other doesn't. In 2000, no one gave Bradley much chance of stopping Gore, so Democrats didn't lose much by voting in the Republican primary. This time around, for the first time in a long time, both parties have contests that are generally considered open.

Some Republicans might want Hillary as the nominee because they think they can beat her. Others might want anyone else because they despise her the most. My guess is that few in either group will act on those views, however. To do so they'd have to give up their right to vote in an open Republican contest in which there are substantial differences among the candidates. Most Republicans will probably give priority to helping pick their own nominee.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. What A Silly Analysis- If Goopers Vote Their "Heart" They Will Vote For Huckleberry Mike Or Sam

Brownshirt...

[Ethelk2044]

33. Yes, Republicans are registering to vote in the Dem Primary

to do just that (Keep Hillary from winning Primary).

[ellacott]

38. Also , there are some states with early primaries

I'm not sure how it is in Georgia but Cynthia McKinney lost one of her congressional race when her opponent got many republicans to cross over and vote for her.

[Netbeavis]

39. time to change your tin foil hat

really, you need to find something to get a little more grounded as there is no foundation for that obsurd remak.

[brooklynite]

43. How did John McCain's nomination work out?

While it is possible in some states to crossover vote in primaries, in many states you have to be registered long in advance for one party or another. I don't think that there are enough tactical Republican voters in enough states to impact the "real" Democrats' choice.

[mdmc]

44. too late to change parties

Nothing can stop HRC! NOTHING!