Current Status of the Primary Polls, State-by-State (9-14-07)

[Yukari Yakumo]

Note: Completely overhauled both maps on the Dem side. Redid calculations and made changes based on new results.



Dems-
Winner Take All-
Current


Trends


15% Threshold-
Current


Trends


Reps-
Current


Trends


- - - - -

Dems & Reps: No changes in state leads

(+) Clinton: Big gains in FL & GA. Improves her numbers in NH. Still holds a commanding lead in CA despite Obama's gains (and the poll numbers are exactly the same since the last time SurveyUSA polled CA).

(+/-) Obama: Makes some gains in CA (though it's actually the exact same numbers SurveyUSA got the last time they polls CA). But lost some ground in SC and NH, and lost a lot of ground in FL and is close to falling beloew the 15% mark.

(+/-) Edwards: Gained some ground in SC. Not much though. Falls below the 15% mark in GA.

Other thoughts:
If NC or IA turns green, Edwards should do Obama a favor and throw in the towel as his legitimacy as a contender would effectively be dead. Toss in an endorsement for Obama too. That might significantly boost Obama's campaign and give Clinton a real run for her money.

[Yukari Yakumo]

1. Correction

Changes to the Rep Map:

CA moves from Ghouliani to Undecided.

- - - - -

(-) Ghouliani: Losing control of CA could blow this race wide open.

[jmp]

2. If Hillary wins Iowa ...

It's over. Obama would be as dead in the water as Edwards.

You've got to give the Clintons credit. They are putting on a clinic with this campaign. It's like watching a boa constrictor slowing squeezing the life out of its prey.