Biden is gaining on and may beat Obama and Clinton in Iowa

[Broke Dad]

I was talking to a Dem political activist at the football game last night. He has been right since I've known him. He said Edwards will win Iowa hands down. But he said Biden is really making gains in Iowa. Biden got the endorsement of Iowa House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy this week. He said Biden will beat Clinton in Iowa and may overtake Obama for second place in the caucus. He said the only demographic Clinton is doing well with in Iowa is retirement age women. I asked about Richardson and he said Richardson has peaked at fourth in Iowa and is on the way down.

I told him I didn't care who came in second or third as long as Edwards won and Hillary came in at least fourth.

[Colobo]

1. Check my post on the DailyKos resume

[PatSeg]

2. Biden is great at retail politics

I've seen his events in Iowa and he really connects with people.

[Captain Hilts]

4. I was impressed by the stump speeches he gave in Iowa I saw on C-Span. nt

[rurallib]

3. I don't see Biden gaining that much traction

Based on some polls I was looking at with some friends the other day it looks like likely caucus goers still go with Edwards, Obama then Clinton with Dodd rising slightly and Richardson leveling off. Richardson was rising but has really slackened lately.
Biden was still very low.

[Benhurst]

5. Who knows? It's still a political enternity until the Iowa caucus.

What if one of our candidates makes a huge blunder?

What if one turns out to be a Wide-Stance Democrat, as unlikely as that may be? :rofl:

What if Gore throws his hat into the ring?

It's all still up for grabs.

[PatSeg]

6. Kerry was a longshot until Iowa

"Wide-Stance Democrat"? Good one!

[PatSeg]

7. We'll see

He is getting more press and the right-wing saw fit to attack him, which indicates they think he could be a threat.

[Debi]

22. What I'm seeing is that several people have Biden as their #2

Which is what they did w/Edwards in 2004. :shrug:

[saltpoint]

8. My hunch is that HClinton is doing better than with just that one demographic

in Iowa and elsewhere, which might account for her double-digit lead over the rest of the field nationally.

Iowa is a wayward care in some respects. Edwards cold do very well in Iowa, no question. He didn't do badly in Iowa in 04 (32% / runner up to Kerry).

Gov. Richardson's numbers have come up. Joe Biden appears to be gaining some momentum, too, I believe a good deal of momentum -- enough to contend for the nomination.

It's gonna be wild. Hold on to your corn dogs, everyone.

[Catchawave]

25. Sounds like people are starting to pay attention.....

Biden and Richardson are very formidible....and by gosh, people like them :)

[saltpoint]

31. LOL! Yes, they do.

If the Democratic Party asks me to pick our ticket, I'm going with John Edwards/Bill Richardson, with Joe Biden as Secretary of State.

If my first choice doesn't win, I'd like to see Joe Biden/Bill Richardson.

A JRE-RFK JR or Biden-RFK JR ticket would be mighty powerful, too.

[calteacherguy]

9. LOL.

"Edwards will win Iowa hands down."

Based on a dream he had last night, no doubt?

Even if he did (which I don't believe he will) it won't matter. He will not be the nominee.

[kad7777]

10. Biden is gaining

If you've ever seen Joe speak in person, there's no denying he connects with people sincerely. I've always seen him as a no bull kinda guy, and that's what we need in the White House. In addition to his no bull way, he's extremely intelligent.

[saltpoint]

11. Agree on all counts. Iowa is going to be a really interesting arena for

2008, plus it gets to go first.

Biden has been very underestimated so far. I think the polling next month and in November will show a marked shift.

[Debi]

23. Welcome to DU kad7777!

:hi:

[DavidDvorkin]

12. That could shake things up

Edwards the hands down winner and Biden #2 in Iowa would have the commentators in a tizzy.

[democrat2thecore]

13. Yes, just like in '04 - And, how about THIS?

It was ALL Howard Dean at this time, remember? Kerry was pretty much out of it this time four years ago. And then -- Kerry wins Iowa! Dean did far poorer than expected and that night was the "Dean Scream," and that was all she wrote for Governor Dean. The media could again be surprised in 2008. Retail politics is what it's about in Iowa. The order very well could be: Edwards, Biden, Obama, Clinton. Then, New Hampshire - Biden could win BIG there. A whole new ball game. A whole new front runner. Remember this thread!

[ginchinchili]

14. I'll remember this thread

I think such a shakeup is very likely, and will give the Democrats a fresh new gust of hope and inspiration. We shall see.

[hedgehog]

28. Here's what I remember:

Neil Kinnock

The Bankruptcy Bill

[PatSeg]

21. Isn't it funny?

We remember 2004 better than the pundits??? We could even see a slight shift before Monday, depending on how Biden does on Chris Wallace's show tomorrow morning.

[jillan]

15. I think it was David Brooks that predicted this a couple of weeks ago.

He was on that Chris Matthews weekend show where Matthews asks "Tell me something I don't know".
and he said that everywhere he goes in Iowa he talks to Biden supporters and it was just a matter of time
before Biden's numbers started growing.

:bounce:

[MonkeyFunk]

16. Has Biden broken 10% there yet?

[democrat2thecore]

19. Polling in a caucus state is a tricky thing

A slight percentage of people show up caucus night. Who shows up? People who know politics, pay attention and know what's going on. That's why caucus states always spring surprises.

[Debi]

24. What was Kerry polling after Labor Day in 2003?

This is only one poll - but....

"But what is most noteworthy is that the top tier according to this poll is Lieberman (14%), Gephardt (11%), and Dean (10%), with John Kerry down at 5% with the likes of Sharpton."

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/000498.php

(on edit - x( 2003)

[sampsonblk]

17. Suuure. She can show up in Iowa ONCE and change all that

Good campaigns move numbers. If Hillary (and Bill) show up in Iowa and campaign just prior to the caucus, I am sure she will win. Its not that complicated.

[illinoisprogressive]

18. Biden is good, but, not that good. obama is doing just fine.

[kad7777]

26. Biden is good

If you know about Joe's 34 year tenure in the Senate, his voting record on civil rights (one the best in the Senate, since first elected in 1972), his 2000 landmark legislation "Violence Against Women Act", convinced Bill Clinton to go into Bosnia to stop the genocide, the 1994 "Biden Crime Law", putting 100,000 more police on the streets (again, Clinton era), you'll realize Joe Biden is beyond good. He will, NO DOUBT, be one of THE BEST Presidents our nation has ever seen.

[kad7777]

27. Obama

Sorry, forgot to mention one thing. Though I like Obama, the man puts me right to sleep. His speeches are very "drony", or "mono-tone". He doesn't inspire me. In addition, he speaks mostly in generalities rather than specifics. The American people deserve to hear specifics. Which is another reason I support Joe Biden. I think a Biden/Obama ticket however, would be wonderful for the country. Four or eight years as Joe's VP will give Barack the experience he desperately needs in this era of turmoil around the globe.

[zulchzulu]

20. I've been to Iowa a couple times and there is not much in Biden's ground game there

I'm not sure if he has many offices in Iowa. Perhaps someone could enlighten me on that, but from being on the west side of Iowa, there isn't much Biden grassroots going on.

In Iowa, it's all about the ground game.

[demommom]

29. I know of campaign offices in:

Clive,Cedar Rapids,Davenport,Des Moines,Dubuque,Iowa City,Sioux City,And Waterloo.

[IndianaGreen]

30. I started out not liking Biden, but now I have to admit that I think highly of him

and I would have no problem supporting him.

Biden deserves a second look!

[PatSeg]

32. I've been hearing that a lot lately

People are actually taking a second look at all the candidates and examining them more closely. We really need to think clearly about our choices this time. The stakes are very high.

[jillan]

33. Wow - hearing that from you makes me happy !

[demommom]

34. thank you.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Yeah

The bankruptcy bill he signed onto works so good for broke folks...

I'm waiting for him to sign on to legislation supporting debtors' prisons...

But , hey, he supported the Iraq War in its nascent stages so if someone is broke and fit they can join the Army...

[Perry Logan]

36. Biden who?

[Kolesar]

37. His speech at Sen. Harden's steak fry was excellent: protect Iraq's borders &the Green Zone

Withdraw our soldiers and marines from having to "secure" Baghdad and all the other areas where we are just refereeing a civil war*.

*I am not sure that Senator Biden said "refereeing".