Capn Sunshine
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Sat Sep-15-07 12:57 PM
Original message |
Polls are great and all, but there's one SURE measure of a candidate's popularity |
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who's leading in small donor donations? The little guy with a solid voting record?
Answer: OBAMA
Yeah, I know, you thought I was gonna mention Oprah.
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durrrty libby
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Sat Sep-15-07 01:15 PM
Response to Original message |
1. Selling a bumper sticker and counting it as a donation is |
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definitely a small donor and counts. It is sleazy, but it counts.
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geek tragedy
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Sat Sep-15-07 01:31 PM
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3. Following the law is sleazy? I guess that explains why |
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Norman Hsu supported Hillary.
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durrrty libby
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Sat Sep-15-07 01:43 PM
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5. I'm not the one "bragging" over the many bumper stickers sold and |
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how that makes a candidate soo popular. It is lame and sure the hell isn't translating to healthy poll numbers for him
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Capn Sunshine
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Sat Sep-15-07 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #5 |
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Edited on Sat Sep-15-07 01:53 PM by Capn Sunshine
that's the subliminal message of my OP.
Pull through is what matters. If Hillary is so "inevitable" is she going to resoundingly win Iowa? Since when did Hillary supporters find selling bumper stickers "sleazy" ?
Oh, right, when they start showing their actual contempt for non corporate contributions.
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durrrty libby
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Sat Sep-15-07 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
7. "Polls don't mean jack" That's right, bumper stickers sold are a much |
eweaver155
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Sat Sep-15-07 02:25 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
13. If polls mattered Dean would be President. |
durrrty libby
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Sun Sep-16-07 05:52 AM
Response to Reply #13 |
17. Maybe he didn't sell enough bumper stickers |
Pithy Cherub
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Sat Sep-15-07 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #5 |
11. California polls show Hillary's SOFT support dwingling to Obama. |
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Edited on Sat Sep-15-07 02:24 PM by Pithy Cherub
Did you know the California's Black Legislative caucus endorsed Obama right before Hillary landed here. Or maybe you missed that Obama is eating into her polls in South Carolina. One thing is clear and it is momentum and its not on Hillary's side forever. Oh and Hillary only had a few hundred guests at Magics and early whispers are its not enough to make up for the Norman Hsu tainted money she has to give back. Oh and each candidate wishes they had been smart enough like Obama to garner supporters through trinkets and what nots. translation all those emails go out en masse and hit a wider group faster than Hillary can and reach further because she is not in his league with young hip voters who live on texting and MySpace. But you gotta hand it to her, she does use the old school mainstream media for the sedentary amongst us.
Let's tally up the big $$$$ events in the last week:
Obama ---------------------------------------------------Hillary Nancy K's private fundraiser $250,000 ------------------Norman Hsu return <$850,000> in the hole Oprah A Celebration $3,000,000 minimum-------------Magic Johnson $500,000 (generous estimate)
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durrrty libby
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Sun Sep-16-07 05:53 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
18. You are way off, but do enjoy fantasyland |
Pithy Cherub
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Sun Sep-16-07 07:54 AM
Response to Reply #18 |
20. Norman Hsu is real and Hillary wishes he was a fantasy. |
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Just to catch up in fundraising, Hillary went to Magic & Cookie's and inroads are happening but Denial in Hillary is par for the course. QED...
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zanne
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Sat Sep-15-07 02:25 PM
Response to Reply #3 |
12. I bought an Obama T-shirt... |
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And I had to fill out a donor form. At the time, I thought it was kind of a pain in the neck, but when I had a chance to think about it, I thought it was very honest.
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MGKrebs
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Sun Sep-16-07 09:51 AM
Response to Reply #12 |
29. I thought you were going to say, "I bought an Obama t-shirt... |
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...and all I got was this lousy candidate (Clinton)". lol.
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Debi
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Sat Sep-15-07 01:29 PM
Response to Original message |
2. Tell President Dean that - |
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People giving money to a candidate in no way translates into votes. And only votes count. Obama is doing well in Iowa and I can't say he won't be the nominee - but small dollar donors isn't the measure on who will win.
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Capn Sunshine
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Sat Sep-15-07 01:57 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
8. It's a more accurate measure than a poll of institutional Dems |
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Little donors don't get polled by Hillary. Only "approved" Democrats get the call. This methodology of course carries the danger that the non-base could fall away.
Dean might have had major small donations, but Kerry had a lock on the old-line Dems and their experience in Iowa. Things are different this time.
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Debi
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Sat Sep-15-07 02:06 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
9. Then you'll need to wait until three weeks before the caucuses |
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to do your egg counting - many Iowans gave money to Dean and dumped him w/in the last weeks of the primary season. Institutional Dems are not the only ones being polled. 30% of intended caucus attendees have never attended caucus before - and they are being polled. http://www.iowatrueblue.com/Blog/tabid/36/EntryID/86/Default.aspxQ.: When did you make up your mind? Last Three Days (21%) Last Week (21%) Last Month (27%) Before That (30%) ++++++++++++++++++++
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MGKrebs
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Sun Sep-16-07 08:11 AM
Response to Reply #8 |
22. We need a new award. Most BS per post. |
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We could call it the Cowpie Award. That posts packs a lot of BS into a few short sentences. Highest per capita concentration of BS. It's almost pure... nothing but BS.
What are "institutional Dems"? Prisoners? Mental patients? Dems who have been Dems for more than 6 months? How do you include or exclude them from polls or buying habits? Does Obama refuse to sell bumper stickers to registered Dems or something? Why would measuring them be less accurate? Accurate in measuring what, exactly? Do "little donors" specifically get polled by anybody? Do the bumper stickers come with a questionnaire? So if Hillary Clinton is excluding "little donors", it's really "biangulation", eh? Who are "approved" Dems? What call are they getting? 83% of Clinton money comes from individual donations, so they are getting the fundraising "call". Is there another "call" they are supposed to be getting? Is Obama polling his bumper sticker buyers to determine his strategy? Who is the "non-base"? What "methodology" endangers the "non-base" support? The methodology of not polling bumper sticker buyers? Dean lost 7 points in the polls in the last week before Iowa. That would indicate no "lock" for anybody. What is different in Iowa this time? Iowa caucus-goers are suddenly the "non-base"? Does Obama get to say "All your non-base are belong to us"?
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Freddie Stubbs
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Sun Sep-16-07 09:42 AM
Response to Reply #8 |
26. What about scientific polls conducted by non-Hillary sources? |
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Most of them seem to agree that Hillary is currently in the lead.
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LWolf
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Sat Sep-15-07 01:34 PM
Response to Original message |
4. A measure of popularity with the subgroup |
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that has enough money in the budget to donate at all, that is.
They're the ones that count, right?
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LanternWaste
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Sat Sep-15-07 02:09 PM
Response to Original message |
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I always thought that the candidate with the most votes in the Democratic primary is the one sure measure of a candidate's popularity. But then again, I have'nt decided on a candidate yet, so I don't really have an axe to grind...
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Capn Sunshine
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Sat Sep-15-07 02:29 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
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Until the vote it's all just positioning , etc.- my point exactly. I just feel small donations are a true measure of where a party is at- not polls by the MSM and hired guns.
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eweaver155
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Sat Sep-15-07 02:28 PM
Response to Original message |
14. All that matters is who can get out the vote. Polls do not mean jack. The person who will win the |
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election will be the person who can get his supporters to the voting booths. That is the bottom line.
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MGKrebs
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Sun Sep-16-07 09:31 AM
Response to Reply #14 |
24. Your post seems to imply that everyone has made up their mind already, |
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and that this is all about organizing GOTV efforts. I'm pretty sure, however, that a lot of people have NOT made up their minds yet, and that therefore the candidates are going through a process of trying to win new supporters. Polling helps them measure how well they are doing that.
While it's true that the election isn't tomorrow, so polls taken today aren't 100% accurate predictors of what the primary results will be, that is not what polls are for.
Polls tell us (and the candidates) where they are at the moment, and therefore they offer suggestions on what the campaigns are doing well and not-so-well. Campaigns revise their strategies based on this info, then we get another poll and they can see how well they have responded. In the meantime, we voters get to watch the process and see how different campaigns/candidates act and react to all this, and then we get to decide how well we like or dislike each candidates performance. It's a valuable process and there is much to be learned from polls if one chooses to accept them within the context of their capability.
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ginchinchili
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Sat Sep-15-07 02:55 PM
Response to Original message |
16. It's too bad Obama doesn't have enough experience to be POTUS |
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Democrats have to recognize this and put their resources behind someone who can win, like Sen. Biden. Too many Americans would be scared to take the chance during times like these with someone with so little experience, especially if Giuliani is the Republican nominee, with whom the country associates standing strong during 9/11, which is bs, but then so was the Swiftboat ads.
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Pithy Cherub
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Sun Sep-16-07 08:02 AM
Response to Reply #16 |
21. It's too Bad Biden doesn't have good judgment to be POTUS |
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and he consistently proves it each and every year kind of like a political rotten Santa Claus. Biden is a self aggrandizing pol who's narcisiism leads him to try again to be POTUS. His lack of good judgment was written beautifully from the 1988 campaign in the seminal Richard Ben Cramer book, What It Takes. Of course his plagiarizing ended his credibility and Biden added to the horribleness of his record with his support of IWR, Clarence Thomas, bankruptcy bill, inability to understand minorities while saying inappropriate and caustic things then apologizing confirming an appalling lack of sound judgment to be president. Biden is gaffe personified and an insider who is unable to generate money, organization or a popular movement behind him because his platform is based on his own belief and the polls show he pretty much remains alone in his delusions of his fitness to be elected president.
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cleveramerican
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Sun Sep-16-07 05:58 AM
Response to Original message |
19. Drawing big crowds at campaign stops is a good sign. |
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Edited on Sun Sep-16-07 05:59 AM by cleveramerican
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Debi
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Sun Sep-16-07 09:01 AM
Response to Reply #19 |
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Ted Kennedy had consistently large crowds in Iowa - and yet he lost the cacucuses with 38% of the support.
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Freddie Stubbs
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Sun Sep-16-07 09:41 AM
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25. Howard Dean was leading with small donor donations too |
MonkeyFunk
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Sun Sep-16-07 09:45 AM
Response to Reply #25 |
BootinUp
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Sun Sep-16-07 09:48 AM
Response to Original message |
28. That didn't work too good in '04 |
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'cause it would have been either Dean or Clark winning in that case. Nevertheless it is impressive for Obama.
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