NH Poll: Hillary well in front...beating Obama by 20, Edwards by 27...

[SaveElmer]

Hillary 39
Obama 19
Edwards 12
Richardson 11

Fav/Unfav ratings

Hillary 81/16
Obama 80/13
Edwards 76/18
Gore 68/22
Richardson 51/14
Kucinich 32/31
Biden 45/25
Dodd 38/26
Gravel 9/15

Who is best on Iraq?

Democratic primary voters were asked to identify the candidate who they think is most qualified to handle the situation in Iraq. One-third of voters (33%) identified Hillary Clinton as the most qualified candidate, far more than Barack Obama (10%), Bill Richardson (10%), Joe Biden (8%) or John Edwards (7%). Twenty-three percent of Democratic primary voters are unsure who is most qualified to handle the situation in Iraq.

Reasons why voters are drawn to the candidate: Obama/Clinton

Clinton voters are drawn to her candidacy based on her position on the issues (32%), and her ability to lead in a new direction (30%). Many Clinton voters also perceive her as having the best experience.

Obama, on the other hand, has lost ground in some areas where he enjoyed a relative advantage in earlier polls. Specifically, he has lost ground in terms of being perceived as having the right character for the job. However, Obama voters are drawn to his candidacy based on his ability to lead in a new direction (48%).

Favorability towards Bill Clinton

Views toward Bill Clinton affect support for Hillary Clinton. Respondents were asked how favorable or unfavorable they feel toward Bill Clinton.

Overall, 86 percent of respondents feel favorable toward Bill Clinton, while 11 percent feel unfavorable. Democratic primary voters with a favorable view toward Bill Clinton are much more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton (39%) than voters with an unfavorable view (9%). Thirty percent of voters who feel unfavorable toward Bill Clinton said that they would vote for Obama. Still, 44 percent of those with an unfavorable view toward Bill Clinton think that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination. These results suggest that while Bill Clinton does have an effect on his wife’s political fortune, few Democratic primary voters hold an unfavorable view toward the ex-President.

http://www.franklinpierce.edu/pages/institutes/poll/poll_07_0917d.pdf

Note: I did not post every single last statistic in this poll...if you are interested in crosstabs etc...hit the link!

on edit: Changed subject to avoid confusion

[rodeodance]

1. 86 percent of respondents feel favorable toward Bill Clinton

[BootinUp]

8. Kinda puts things in perspective

with regard to the trashing he takes around here.

[emilyg]

2. Thank you

:toast:

[Mend]

3. I never thought Obama should go negative on Hillary...it is sort of like

yelling at your mom. I don't think it plays well with people's psyches.

[democratsin08]

4. lets all unite

and support hillary in this crusade

[ralphmich3]

9. Hillary in 2003, supporting Bush's war in Iraq

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYATbsu2cP8

This vote and speech, alone, should disqualify Hillary for president.

[MethuenProgressive]

5. "Edwards 12, Richardson 11"

I had no idea Richardson was doing that well up in NH!

[Botany]

6. Hmmmm

Vermont now




Vermont when they vote



Things change.

[BootinUp]

7. Biden's Fav/Unfav numbers are really not good I guess. n/t

[Adelante]

10. The Gore vote - we always wonder where it goes

Clinton +3
Obama +1
Richardson +1
Undecided +1

[zulchzulu]

11. MOE of almost 5% with 403 likely primary voters...11% undecided...

From the poll:

The poll is based on interviews with 403 likely Democratic Presidential Primary voters.

All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample. The
survey was administered by telephone, September 11 – September 14, 2007. The
survey of 403 respondents has a maximum margin of sampling error of +/- 4.9%.

A decent poll has an MOE of 3% or less with at least 1,000 people polled. Add that there are 11% undecided.

If I was in the Clinton camp, I wouldn't take this poll with much measure. But since I'm not, I hope it breeds overconfidence. With some decent messaging, trust in Clinton's judgment on the Iraq War will wane pretty quickly.

:hi:

[durrrty libby]

12. Excellent

[calteacherguy]

13. Bill is using his book to help Hillary indirectly.

I was listening to the radio today in the S.F. bay area, and out of the Blue there was Bill Clinton talking about his new book. It's smart, and I'm sure it helps Hillary get even more support.

[Honeycombe8]

14. I don't know that favorable/unfav. ratings mean anything, do they?

If someone has an unusually high unfavorable rating, I guess you could surmise they won't win a GE. But other than that, I've never seen or read anything showing a connection between unfavor/favorable ratings and winning or losing anything.

I don't view Hillary Clinton particularly favorable, although I'm SOMEWHAT neutral on her. But I would vote for her.

I don't think this sort of rating matters. What matters is what registered or likely voters say they will do in the voting booth.

[Hailtothechimp]

15. YAWN......

Hillary could lead by 50 points and I still wouldn't vote for her.

Nor would I sit out the primary and miss the chance to vote against her, either.

Sorry, corporate media......