Dean Soars into Huge Lead in New Hampshire

[XemaSab]

Now Leads Kerry 40-17 Among Likely Voters; Clark and Edwards in Distant 3rd --New Zogby Poll

Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean has opened a large lead over his closest challenger in New Hampshire according to the newest poll by Zogby International.

Dean earned 40%, compared to Massachusetts Senator John Kerry’s 17%. None of the other candidates have exceeded single digits in the polling. Retired General Wesley Clark and North Carolina Senator John Edwards are tied for third with 6% each.

<...> Pollster John Zogby: "This is stunning. Dean leads 43-20 among Democrats and 35 to 11 among Independents. He hits 40 among all age groups, union and non-union voters. His lead is 57-17 among self-described progressives, 50-20 among liberals, and 34-14 among moderates. Married voters give him a 38-13 edge and singles a 45-21 point lead. He holds huge leads among all education groups, among investors and non-investors, men and women. This qualifies as juggernaut status. Can he be stopped?"

http://www.valuejudgment.org/archives/000239.html

[Windy]

1. Hillary supporters....take heed!!! n/t

[StrongBad]

2. I lurked DU in 2004...

But I still remember vividly the drama associated with the Dean campaign. Though right now I do in fact declare myself a Clinton supporter, I don't think for a second that this race is locked up.

Things changed so quickly in 2004, it seemed within the last week of the campaign Kerry came out of nowhere and changed everything and Dean was done. How quickly we forget...

Good find to keep things in perspective...

[JNelson6563]

34. Seriously.

[StrongBad]

37. Holy Crap!!!

n/t

[AwakeAtLast]

40. Hey there StrongBad

Just hafta know - how do you type with gloves on your hands? :evilgrin:

Sorry, couldn't help myself! :rofl:

[StrongBad]

45. Quite clever WakeMeUp

The Cheat would be impressed...

:)

[rinsd]

3. Should Hillary come in 3rd and "hulk" out at a supporter rally which the media then flogs endlessly

Her lead in NH could be in jeopardy.

On edit: Changed Dean's 2004 finish from 4th to 3rd.

[XemaSab]

4. Dean came in third

:P

[rinsd]

5. D'oh!

[madfloridian]

22. 2nd in NH

.

[StrongBad]

6. That's the one thing that makes me think her situation is different

Hillary is probably one of the most disciplined campaigners out there, much moreso than her husband and much much more than Dean.

I personally don't think the media nor the right wing can take all the wind out of her sails, they've been trying since 1992 and she's still going strong.

[rinsd]

7. Gaffes are always possible.

But she is doing very well so far.

[XemaSab]

16. There's gaffes, and then there's the "vibe" factor

Many, many people I talked to in Iowa and New Hampshire had gone to see the candidates speak in person.

It's hard for the media, campaign literature, or a volunteer canvassing to change the opinion of someone who has seen the candidates speak in person, and what voters want in a candidate isn't always quantifiable. :shrug:

[rinsd]

18. Alot can happen.

I am a poll junkie so I tend to post on polls far more often than others. A couple of Hillary supporters are similar though there are a few Obama & Edwards supporters that are poll junkies as well.

I think wndycty hit the right chord in this thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3530343

The numbers can change a few times before people start voting. Keep posting poll numbers, but if your candidate is not polling as well as you would like don't be discouraged just work harder and if you candidate is doing well don't take it for granted.

[Freddie Stubbs]

9. Dean was already trailing in NH before the Scream

[rinsd]

12. While Dean's lead had shrunk, I can't find him trailing prior to IA/SCceam

ARG had him leading by at least 5 up to IA.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

USA Today/Gallup had it closer.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-01-25-poll-results.htm

UNH

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/primary2004_tr12604.pdf

Or did you mean polling in the immediate aftermath of IA vs the endless loop of the scream played that week?

[XemaSab]

19. The so-called "scream" totally flattened us in NH

Even from third place I think there could have been a comeback but that just totally kiboshed it right there.

Which sucked. :(

[madfloridian]

28. If you are speaking of NH...Dean was 2nd there.

Not sure what you were speaking of.

While he had a lot on his plate in IA, someone who skipped Iowa was working hard there in NH. Dean still came in 2nd there in spite of the media blasting him.

[Freddie Stubbs]

8. That was a volatile race where the lead changed more than once

So far the lead has not changed at all.

[XemaSab]

10. Not that volatile...

Once the "name recognition" factor had leveled out, Dean was WAY out in front for quite some time... until the end.

[flpoljunkie]

11. Checked the link. This Zogby poll was completed in late October, 2003.

[XemaSab]

13. I was looking for something from September of 2003

but this poll worked well for my purposes.

Poll results at this stage of the game (4 months from Iowa) are totally meaningless.

[flpoljunkie]

14. I totally agree, and an October poll makes the point even better.

[TwilightGardener]

15. Go Howard Dean! Woohooo! I didn't even know he was running in '08!

(what? he's not?)

[cobalt1999]

17. If 2004 had some of the big states following quickly, like this time...

I still think Dean would have won the nomination. The selected early states torpedo'ed him and there wasn't time for the big states to come to his rescue. This time the dynamic is a little different.

[FrenchieCat]

20. Whatever happens, it will be the media that decides.......

whether 2008 is to be same as 2004 or whether it is to be different; not us so much.

So whatever parallel we find in polls doesn't mean a thing one way or the other.

In 2004, Dean was the juggernaut without competition in reference to even media coverage through most of the pre-primary season...until late December. Dean was covered mostly as the sole frontrunner with no mention of any other candidates for the most part, except for mention of the vague "Up for grabs" Anti-Dean candidate. This is not the case this time (there is a "top tier of three instead)........and so based on that, I wouldn't ask supporters of non-Hillary candidates to get their hopes up that things will play out similarily this time round.

Nothing is predictable, and certainly I will not predict that whomever is lowest in the polls this time, will come out on top as it happened in 2004.

[XemaSab]

23. I deeply suspect that the good people of Iowa

didn't want to be told who to vote for, and the whole "Dean as the front runner" thing got a bit tiring.

That and he was too "fiery."

Finally, our precinct captains were morons who failed to aggressively pursue voters during the caucus process, if CSPAN was any indication. :P

I'm feeling like Hillary (like Dean before her) has nowhere to go but down, and with Edwards and Obama trailing her, if one of them screws up or does something heroic, the other two may be affected in ways we cannot forsee. This may especially come into play in the caucus process. DK and Edwards had a deal last time for nonviable DK voters to support Edwards in the caucus, and similar last-minute "deals" may wreak havoc on even the best-laid plans.

[Debi]

27. HEY... I was a precinct captain for Dean

are you calling me a MORON? :grr:

[XemaSab]

29. Depends. Were you the precinct captain shown on CSPAN?

:P

[Debi]

30. No - but check your PM for my POV...

Sounds dirty but it's not.

[XemaSab]

31. Thanks for the PM.

That's not far from my take on it.

:pals:

I think the campaign had no clue what to do with 200 million volunteers (or whatever) and we were not well used at all. Having people come in from out of state didn't work well, and calling people just made them mad.

It's easy to take it out on the precinct captains, but obviously more resources should have gone towards training them and cultivating local networks of supporters who would run the show in their areas.

The Des Moines central office was a total CF.

[Debi]

36. Do you still have your orange hat?

:hi:

[XemaSab]

43. I totally do.

:hi:

[MannyGoldstein]

21. Thank You For The Link

Precisely what is needed for the "resistance is futile" crowd.

[XemaSab]

24. You're welcome.

:)

[madfloridian]

25. He may have lost but he stood for something.

.

[XemaSab]

26. Word.

Also, he has kicked more ass as party chair than we could have imagined, and he will continue to kick ass well into the future!

[madfloridian]

32. I keep hearing about Hillary's disciplined campaign and how it will win.

But I will put Dean's campaign and its heart and soul and passion and all of its mistakes up against that cold type of discipline any time.

I am so distrustful now of politicians, that I think oh, goody, disciplined campaign...that means she will be careful not to say the wrong things and thus say nothing at all.

[Catchawave]

33. Don't forget Joementum !

Lieberman says he's got the 'Joementum'
'I think it's going to keep building to a surprising finish'

(CNN) --Buoyed by a rise in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll two days before the New Hampshire primary, Sen. Joe Lieberman said Sunday his campaign is gaining support, especially from independents, that will propel him to victory nationwide.

Writing off speculation that he may make a poor showing in New hampshire and drop out of the race, Lieberman told CNN's Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer that his campaign is picking up, as he put it, "Joementum."

"The experts were saying this guy is nowhere in the race. Since the debate Thursday night, the people of New Hampshire are making up their minds. And you know what? They're sick of the outside experts telling them who's going to do what in this primary on Tuesday," he said. "Thank God they have the last word."

Lieberman said he has the funds to continue his campaign past New Hampshire, and he expects a new infusion of contributions once the results are in Tuesday night.

"I've always said not that I would win here, but I'd do better than expected. And it sure looks like that's happening. And then we'd go on to the other states... and surprise people," he said

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Sunday found Lieberman surpassing Sen. John Edwards and former NATO Gen. Wesley Clark for third place behind Sen. John Kerry and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. Lieberman had the support of 12 percent of 688 likely voters in New Hampshire, while Kerry was at 38 percent and Dean 25 percent.

more: http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/25/elec04.prez.lieberman/index.html

[saltpoint]

42. Exactly. Joementum can't be stopped. He's the odds-on favorite, and

he's the only Democrat who's spoken out against decadent Hollywood!

God bless 'im!

[Canuckistanian]

47. And Joe represents that small pro-Israel faction

And those poor Israelis, they have so little influence over powerful US interests!

[saltpoint]

48. 'Saw a film some years ago now... will try to find the title and get back

to you...

about the early years of the Israeli state from roughly 1948-49 into the next few years, in which tensions in the area between Palestinians (generally) and Jews (also generally) were extraordinarily sharp and volatile.

Not to spoil it in case you rent it (when I finally come up with the title) it concerns a young teen of an established Jewish family whose tutor, also Jewish, comes under increasing suspicion for (possibly) being an informant to the Palestinians.

The student and his friends form a sort of vigilante squad and spy on the tutor's private hours, and in fact discover a liason with a Palestinian. But the terms are not clear to the vigilantes and confusion and loss ensue.

I'll try to dig up the title and post it in this thread, or if I miss the time cut-off, as a reply to this thread.

Bottom line: I'm on the peace train in the Middle East and want a plan proposed and affirmed that will have as its chief consequence the cessastion of brutality and violence.

_____
_____ on edit: adding film title: Machboim (Israeli) (1980).

[Canuckistanian]

50. Sounds interesting

I recently saw Exodus for the first time and I was fascinated by the history of the early days of Jewish statehood.

[saltpoint]

52. I would love to have a President -- and a Sec. of State too -- who at least

could locate the Middle Eastern countries on a damn map.

Currently our country down here has Bush and Condi in those positions.

But a change is a'comin'.

(added the film title upthread: MACHBOIM (in Hebrew w/English subtitles, sometimes appears in U.S. and Canada as HIDE AND SEEK, but possibly in a censored version).

[Ethelk2044]

35. Goes to show you about polls.

[SnoopDog]

38. "They" did not want Dean to win...

Mr. Dean was/is a real Democrat and they would not let him win. They did want Kerry to win the primary and look what we got.

Similarly, they want Hillary Clinton to win and therefore Americans will loose once again.

[calteacherguy]

39. It ain't 2004, and Hillary Clinton is no Howard Dean. nt

[saltpoint]

41. Well, that about wraps it up in the Granite State, sure enough. Dean's the man.

His lead is insurmountable. He's not only way ahead, he's ahead of most of the rest of the field combined.

Any day now, I expect Al Gore to endorse him. The rest of the field should just drop out now and save themselves the bother.

_____________________

A parody on certainty in politics and not on the good Governor Dean who is the very best Dem Party chair of my lifetime.

[jcrew2001]

44. When I saw Kerry giving an interview on 9/11/01 from Hawaii

I knew he would be the Democratic nominee in 2004.

Sadly, I also knew that his Hawaii/Nantucket vacationing ways would doom him to lose the election.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

46. Don't Kid Yourselves

Unless Gore decides to run, Hillary is going to be the nominee.

She'll probably win the G.E., even though the repubs will make it a close race because they'll try their best to rally against her.

[SnowGoose]

49. Letting history speak for itself: Priceless.

Clearly a perfect 10.0 post for style alone.
(good point, too)

[illinoisprogressive]

51. yep, inevitable. surrender, it's inevitable. bwwwwaaaahahahaha