For overconfident Hillary supporters/Concerned Obama or Edwards supporters, remember Iowa '04

[wndycty]

In the fall of '03 Howard Dean was supposed to have had it locked up and Kerry had to mortgage the house, but remember what happened in Iowa.

I can ENTHUSIASTICALLY support Hillary if she is nominated but until then I'm gonna do what I can to make sure Obama is the nominee and I encourage Edwards supporters to the same. Hillary supporters keep doing what you are doing and supporters of the rest of the field should know that upsets are very possible.

The numbers can change a few times before people start voting. Keep posting poll numbers, but if your candidate is not polling as well as you would like don't be discouraged just work harder and if you candidate is doing well don't take it for granted.

[rinsd]

1. I'll second that.

"but if your candidate is not polling as well as you would like don't be discouraged just work harder and if you candidate is doing well don't take it for granted."

[MonkeyFunk]

2. Almost all references to Clinton's inevitability

I've seen here come from her detractors, not her supporters.

[Dawgs]

7. You're kidding right?

I mean you can't seriously say that Hillary supporters haven't already started talking about how 'Obama is toast' and 'when Hillary wins'? Can you?

I mean that's crazy land.

[MonkeyFunk]

12. I don't see her supportes

ever use the word "Inevitable". Her detractors do.

Now, saying she's doing very well right now and backing that up isn't the same thing.

[BeyondGeography]

10. Now THAT'S funny

"Keep dreaming," "wishful thinking," "she's kicking your guy's ass,"...just a few of the common Hillbot phrases around here. And if you question her inevitability, you're liable to be branded a basher or a hater.

[Debi]

3. I posted it before but ... here

http://www.iowatrueblue.com/Default.aspx?BlogDate=2007-09-07

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Not Fuzzy Math
Iowa True Blue By admin on 9/6/2007 12:53 PM

How wide open is the 2008 Iowa Caucus? Completely, totally, 1,000 percent wide open.

How do I know? Science! Well, the science of exit polling, anyway. Here are numbers from the 2004 Caucus:



Q.: When did you make up your mind?

Last Three Days (21%)

Last Week (21%)

Last Month (27%)

Before That (30%)

Source: CNN



Wow. Obviously, 42% of 2004 Caucus goers didn't make up their minds until just one week out. And, a substantial majority of 2004 Caucus attendees (a full 69%!) didn't choose a candidate until just a month before The Big Night. There's no reason to think 2008 will be any different. The winner of the 2008 Iowa Caucus can't possibly be known -- or really even guessed at -- until Caucus night.

[rinsd]

8. Thanks Debi!

For both the links and your objective insight dealing with IA.

[Debi]

17. I'm only one Iowan -( and have a big mouth and strong opinions)

But there are plenty of us on this board who will gladly talk about 2003-04 and what it looks like on the ground out here. :hi: Thanks

[illinoisprogressive]

21. three weeks before the dem. senate primary here, Obama was stuck in #2 place

[TwilightZone]

11. '08 could be different because Hillary's in the race.

She's been in the national public eye for more than 15 years, so many people already have a pretty well-formed opinion of her (one way or the other), so the percentage of voters who decide late could be lower this cycle.

[Debi]

16. Yes and no

I think the hard core supporters of any of the candidates are already on board. It will now be how they perform at the debates/party events or if any of them make any big gaffes. Maybe the Iowa Jefferson Jackson dinner (and the perceived support at that event) will move some voters, but it could very well be Christmas before 20 - 30% make their decision.(or later - like on caucus night).

Yes, Clinton is a known commodity, but how many people weren't old enough to vote when Bill Clinton was in office? How many haven't paid attention through high school or college? How many didn't care until this damn war started or the financial crunch stared affecting their family? For those people, Clinton is as known as Edwards and Obama here in Iowa.

[TwilightZone]

18. Very true.

You're right, of course. There will certainly be a lot of new voters, thanks to the economy, the war, etc. It will also be an election of historical significance because of Hillary and Barack, and that should also generate new voters.

[Totally Committed]

4. It ain't over until it's over.

She is not inevitable ------- Formidable, yes. Has more $$$ than God. But, she is not invincible or inevitable and none of us should stand down until the last vote is counted from the Primaries.

I know I won't!

TC

[Bitwit1234]

5. I seem to remember the first of the year

when Obama was ahead in some of the polls they yelled and cheered they were going to leave eveyone else in the dust. Now that the mighty has fallen it is a different story. It is so sickening all the bickering. ATTACK THE DAMN REPUBLICANS NOT EACH OTHER.

[NewHampster]

6. Thank you for saying it for me

[Dawgs]

9. Thanks for attacking the Obama supporters right before you tell us to stop attacking each other.

It really helps to make your case.

[gateley]

13. You only include the 'top three' when your point is not to become discouraged

by the polls. Biden supporters -- and those of the other candidates -- would do well to heed your message too.

Edited to remove a word I've never seen in my life but apparently typed.

[wndycty]

14. I didn't only mention the top 3, I noted all candidates can pull an upset

:kick:

[XemaSab]

15. NB Kerry was at 9% 7 weeks out.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3530286

[jcrew2001]

19. Hillary has nothing to prove, that she hasn't proven already

I think what would really change Iowa would be if Obama or Edwards prove themselves beyond Hillary and that the Iowa voters embrace Obama or Edwards.

Hillary right now is the default candidate in the polls. But I personally don't know anyone gung-ho about Hillary, but I don't live in NYC either, don't know about Iowa.

Besides, who are Iowa voters? Are they mostly female? I know most older men lean republican. I doubt that Iowa Democrats are 50/50 male/female, probably more female, which would boost Hillary.

[illinoisprogressive]

20. I won't support Hillary at all. But, I have this feeling there will be much crow for her supporters