Pollsters Murphy, Mellman: Candidates and Media Beware: You Can't Measure What Hasn't Happened

[flpoljunkie]

The Heisenberg primaries

Candidates and media beware: you can't measure what hasn't happened.

By Mike Murphy and Mark Mellman, MIKE MURPHY is a Republican political consultant whose clients have included Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sen. John McCain and former Gov. Jeb Bush. MARK MELLMAN is a Democratic pollster who has represented Sen. Harry Reid, Sen. Barbara Boxer and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, among others.
July 5, 2007

Consider this: More than two-thirds of the Democrats who voted in the 2004 Iowa caucuses didn't decide who to vote for until a month before the caucuses. Four in 10 decided in the last week. In 2004, 54% of New Hampshire Democrats decided within a week of the primary. It's no surprise, then, that in the 2004 election, John Kerry was lagging in third place until only a few weeks before the Iowa caucuses. Kerry then more than doubled his vote in Iowa and nearly quadrupled it in New Hampshire — all in less than 20 days.

Iowa's Republican caucus-goers are no different. In 1996, nearly a quarter chose their candidate on caucus night or in the preceding two days; fully 42% decided in the last 10 days. And in New Hampshire, only 12% of Republicans decided in 2000 who they would support in the primary before Jan. 1 of election year.

What a sobering thought. Millions raised, then spent, thousands of staffers, all the early spin, all the early endorsements, and all the early everything else consists mainly of campaigns trying to create metrics by which the media can measure their progress. Yet the reality is that there's not much value in the measurements at this stage of the game.

Meanwhile, the press ignores Heisenberg's principle — that the measurements themselves, printed in bold type on Page 1, create their own distorted results,inaccurately advantaging some while disadvantaging others. By creating a potentially illusory sense of momentum or of failure, these pseudo-measures affect the extent of media coverage, fundraising, endorsements and the willingness of volunteers to engage.

The result is a cycle. Early national polling is used to declare winners and losers. Those declarations affect the flow of money and coverage, which is then reported as winners and losers, part two, thereby driving the next polls.

In 2003, this cycle nearly buried Kerry.

Let's face it: While money in the bank, a strong organization, a capable staff and a compelling message will be vital next year when early-primary-state voters start deciding, trying to measure the variables now, for a campaign that for most hasn't even started yet, can lead to a net loss of knowledge.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-murphy5jul05,0,6805499.story?coll=la-opinion-rightrail