Democrats Gearing Up for Delagate Fight

[illinoisprogressive]

Barack Obama sent out an e-mail to supporters on Tuesday announcing plans for a big rally in New York's Union Square on Sept. 27. The invitation was evidence of a campaign planning for a potentially extended battle against Hillary Clinton.

The idea of a protracted contest runs contrary to widespread assumptions about how the 2008 Democratic race may play out. But some analysts, who have studied the new calendar, the rules for allocating convention delegates and the financial resources of the leading candidates, believe that a lengthy contest extending into the megaprimary day of Feb. 5 and beyond may be just as likely.

Talk of an early end to the nomination assumes that what happened in 2004 may happen in 2008. Four years ago, John Kerry surged to an unexpected victory in Iowa, capitalized on that performance to win in New Hampshire a week later and then rolled easily to the nomination on the basis of pure momentum.

Many Democratic strategists -- including those around Clinton -- believe the same could happen this year if she wins Iowa and New Hampshire. The idea that back-to-back victories could effectively give her the nomination is based on the belief that Iowa is her single biggest hurdle. Therefore, if she can defeat both Obama and John Edwards there, the other states will fall into place because of her status as the party's national front-runner.


http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/09/19/post_80.html