Wow-Hillary seems to be slipping according to Rasmussen...

[jenmito]

9/21:

Hillary-36%


Obama-25%


Edwards-13%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

[Debi]

1. Maybe this week

and then next week Edwards and the week after that Obama will slip. :eyes: Polls-schmolls when the first contest isn't until January.

[jenmito]

2. Her numbers have been going down daily lately...

Could be due to the Hsu scandal...people are starting to remember the NOT so good times of the Clinton admin.

[DURHAM D]

3. Totally irrelevant numbers.

However - you might want to check out Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. They matter more as early primary states - but still not so much as first votes are four months away.

[jenmito]

6. One or two Hillary supporters were posting Rass's daily polls every day

Now when an OBAMA supporter posts the poll it's irrelevant?

[DURHAM D]

9. Well then - talk to the other Hillary supporters.

I have never cared about the national numbers. They are completely irrelevant.

They also mean nothing to the Obama campaign. Right now all they care about is Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

[jenmito]

13. I can't control who replies...

if you don't care, you don't have to post. :shrug:

[Capn Sunshine]

14. It's really not as important to Obama supporters

we're not attempting to portray Obama as "inevitable" and "Invincible"

What WE do is work for our candidate in the real world, away from the keyboard, which is why we have record numbers of contributors.

[jenmito]

16. OK, that's a good point...

but I started following Rass's polls ever since the Hillary supporters posted them here. I'm not able to really get out, so I can only do things from home. But I'm not trying to say Obama's the inevitable candidate. I think he WILL be the nominee, though. :D

[rinsd]

22. Jenmito...that was an unecessary slam on Hillary supporters.

Because Hillary supporters have not been posting the daily numbers every day. In fact when Rasmussen introduced the daily, Clinton poll posters, as well as some poll junkies from Edwards and Obama camps jointly agreed to avoid posting the daily numbers because we knew how much more volatile they can be. I know because I intro'd the non-binding agreement. Feel free to ask jefferson-democrat about it.

Rasmussen puts out 5 different polls a week including head to head matchups, primary polls, GOP primary numbers, approvals numebrs etc.

[jenmito]

25. They seem to have stopped in the last week or so...

but there WERE one or two Hillary supporters who DID post Rass's polls many times. I know because when I'd comment on the thread they'd justify it by telling me to look at the trend lines. I'm not saying YOU did it, but others did. That's why I started watching that site in the first place. But I apologize to you if you're offended. :hi:

[rinsd]

29. Like I said Ras puts out quite a few different polls a week.

I just don't like my fellow supporters being slammed as a group (to tell the truth Capt Sunshine's comment pissed me off more than yours).

[jenmito]

33. Yes, but they're head to heads...not contradictions of his daily polls...

And I guess I started this thread in response to the several Rasmussen threads I saw from Hillary supporters (not you).

[Why Syzygy]

36. You're catching on. n/t

[jenmito]

49. Thanks.

:hi:

[DavidDvorkin]

92. I've been posting that poll every day

And I'm an Edwards supporter. Just FYI.

You can find the graph I update regularly (except on weekends) here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3518385&mesg_id=3518385

(I was graphing the daily numbers, but I switched it to three-day rolling averages.)

[durrrty libby]

5. A pollster was on MSNBC yesterday. He said her numbers were

approaching 50...so dream on

[bigdarryl]

56. MSNBC has there nose's up Hillary's ASS

[Name removed]

57. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[vssmith]

88. Ah! yes, and it feels so very good

[Ethelk2044]

75. This is not the first poll where her numbers were down in mid 30's this is the third poll

The trend is where her numbers are beginning to fall

[flpoljunkie]

7. Hard to say, but she's down three and Obama's up three in Rasmussen's daily tracking

[jenmito]

8. Thank you. That's all I'm sayin'...

:hi: except for the added speculation. :)

[flpoljunkie]

45. Any time!

:hi:

[Debi]

11. Maybe, but that doesn't change that it is September 21 and the first contest isn't until January

She may have a brilliant debate performance, or roll out a great plan for Seniors or College kids or Child care or who knows what. Obama may have a fund raising scandal or some weird investment issue from when he was 20 or the Edwards' grounds keeper or nanny or garbage carrier may write a tell-all book that makes them look bad. (and I don't mean to leave out Biden, Dodd, Gravel, Kucinich or Richardson - go ahead and think good/bad things about each of them too)

It's just too early to claim anything other than a few folks who got polled this week gave differing views from the few folks who got polled a week ago.

[liberalnurse]

4. Exactly...............

HILLARY!.............She is the one!

[Colobo]

72. Obama '08!

[aquart]

10. Healthcare, maybe?

[jenmito]

12. It's probably that even more than the Hsu scandal.

:hi:

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[jenmito]

18. Yes.

With all due respect of course. :D

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Does It Bother Anybody Scotty Rasmussen Is The GOP's Favorite Pollster?

Whenever they need cheering up they flog his polls...


They have Bush* at 39%


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/president_bush_job_approval


Most of the other polls have him hovering in the low to mid thirties...

[jenmito]

20. I know he's a GOP pollster who's a regular on Faux...

but when the Hillary supporters have been posting his polls day after day, I think it's fair to point out when Hillary slips. "Look at the trend lines" is what a Hillary supporter told me a couple weeks ago re: the Rasmussen poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. I Never Reference Him Because I Consider Him Biased And His Methodology Flawed

Anyway, it's best to look at a lot of polls...

[TheWraith]

65. His approval numbers are wacky, but he's usually pretty accurate with regard to election results.

For what it's worth.

[rinsd]

19. No way to tell if its a trend yet.

Similar to when Obama dipped below 20% a month ago in Rasmussen.

[jenmito]

21. True. We'll see. n/t

[antiimperialist]

24. Rasmussen always wants to shock his readers. Edwards went up to 18%. Now he's back at 13%

the 13% is a figure from a couple of days ago.
Rasmussen also said Fred Thompson was ahead of Giuliani by 9 pts. last week, and now he's only up by 1%.
I think he wants to keep things interesting, and plays with the numbers to achieve this goal.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. Having A Robocaller Doesn't Help

It could be a precocious five year old answering his questions...

BTW, most of the other polls show Rudy Doody beating The Fredster by seven to nine points...

[rinsd]

41. Some polls have Rudy up more but quite a few are close to Rasmussen

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

And there's nothing wrong with robocalling. In fact robocallers(SurveyUSA also does robocalling) came the closest to the results in 2004 & 2006.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/2/4/184928/4746

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/blog_11_8_04_1018.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. How Does A Robocaller Know Who's Answering The Question

Maybe the number of "non qualified" voters cancel each other out...

[rinsd]

46. How does the real interviewer know the person on the other end is telling the truth?

Especially about controversial issues?

There is alot of debate about robo vs live calling but so far it seems robo calls at a minimum perform as well as live calls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. I Think A Real Person Can Tell If He's Speaking To An Adult (Most) Of The Time

That was my point.

[jenmito]

34. OK, I'll keep that in mind the next time I see a thread

citing this poll, claiming Edwards is within the MOE of Obama, Hillary is pulling away, etc.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Rasmussen Is A Joke

But I'll give him credit... He flat out nailed the 04 presidential election... He also had Bush* beating Gore 49% to 40% in 00...

I suspect he's oversampling Republicans a bit... That's why he has Bush* at 39% approval while others have him in the low to mid thirties...

I'm also not sold on his robocaller...


BTW, I see your Obama avatar... I wouldn't mind him, Edwards, or Clinton as our nominee... I used to think I knew who would be our strongest candidate because that's all that matters to me, given how important it is to take back the White House, but now I don't know...

[AtomicKitten]

26. Whaaaat?? We have been assured the fat lady has already sung.

Better unpack the suitcases because apparently the race is still on.

[jenmito]

28. Exactly...

and that's the only reason I posted this poll from today. I GOT it from a Hillary supporter here at the DU.

[SaveElmer]

27. Daily Track...

See if it keeps up...

Pew, Harris and CBS have essentially opposite results...

Will have to see how it plays out

[Colobo]

73. Let's hope Obama's number keep going up. The country needs him, Elmer.

[SaveElmer]

74. In the Senate...

Is how I believe that sentence should end!!

[MethuenProgressive]

30. With the margin of error: No Change.

:shrug:
You'd think a Oprahbama supporter would've titled the post
'Obama Gains!', not 'Hillary slipping'...

[jenmito]

35. So does that mean

I get to call you a Murdoclinton supporter? :eyes:

[MethuenProgressive]

37. That sounds like a RW fax from the 90s!

"MurderofClinton"! :lol:

[Bitwit1234]

32. Gee Obama has been doing that for quite a while

Maybe Edwards is going to take up the slack.

[ronnykmarshall]

38. OH MY GOD!!

Cancel the primary! There's no need to vote! Obama is being crowned by the "MSM".

:sarcasm:

Sorry, but I just wanted to use the same tired shit that gets thrown at every pro-Hillary poll.

[Milo_Bloom]

39. No real change. (Which IS a story worth talking about).

Wesley Clark's endorsement had no effect on her numbers. The health care plan had no effect on her numbers.

Her campaign is absolutely stagnant, despite her doing things that people thought would cause her campaign to break out.

[Adelante]

42. It's possible the MoveOn controversy

With the venom directed mostly at her could have contributed, too, as long as we're guessing.

[Milo_Bloom]

44. No guessing really needed.

She did not get a bounce from either of the two things that happened that were supposed to make her climb.

We can speculate as to WHY she didn't get a bounce, but the fact is that she didn't get a bounce.

[Adelante]

48. Clark wasn't expected to give her a bounce

But to help her over the long run. Why she might have slumped is another thing. It has nothing to do with Clark and his endorsement, but with the effects of the MoveOn ad, as it's being used as to revive the old story that Dems can't be trusted on national security. It could be very temporary, but I can easily see that as a possible source of noise in the polls.

[Milo_Bloom]

50. But it is just in the dem primary.

Obama gained a little and she fell a little.

You believe the Moveon ad caused democratic primary voters to change from Clinton to Obama??

The fact is that Wes' endorsement did nothing for her in the dem primary, nor did her health care plan.

[jenmito]

51. I think it's the healthcare plan and the Hsu scandal...

reminding people of what they didn't like about the 90s...

[Adelante]

53. I'm not saying he did anything for her ... yet

His campaigning for her will be what is or is not productive and that is yet to come. I'm saying Clark is no indicator at this point of anything. I believe the MoveOn ad portraying "General Betray Us" - especially when it is spun as disrespect of the military (still the most popular American institution) can be offensive to Democratic voters, yes. Clinton has been taking the fire on this and it could have caused a current drop in public opinion. Obama has not been targeted with this smear, as she has, nor have the other Dem candidates. They're not in the same ballpark, for now. Anyway, we'll see if this means anything at all or if it is just a glitch in the polls.

[Milo_Bloom]

54. Its not even a glitch.

She has been to this level within the last month. The point is that she is absolutely steady.

[Adelante]

58. It looks like a dip

[jenmito]

60. I like that chart...

I hope the trends continue.

p.s. Did you see Wes Clsrk on The Daily Show? He never mentioned Hillary nor his endorsement of her.

[Adelante]

62. It's today's version

Bookmark this, jenmito:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3518385

It's updated each week so there's a good visual.

[jenmito]

66. Thanks...

I just did! :hi: So far, I like how it looks. I notice Hillary is getting lots of negative coverage lately. Not undeserved, IMO.

[Adelante]

63. Wes is on his pre-scheduled book tour

It depends on what questions he's asked whether or not he talks about the endorsement, but he's not actually campaigning for her yet, except for the night before last he was with her at Town Hall in NYC.

[jenmito]

67. oh, OK...

I know he's on his book tour, but I figured he'd find a way to fit it in that he's endorsing her. I like watching him better when he doesn't do that. :)

[Milo_Bloom]

61. The exact same dip as on 8/27 and 8/6 and 7/15

That's not a dip, it is a standard deviation in ANY daily poll.

[Adelante]

64. I see what you mean there

Thanks for pointing it out, Milo.

[sendero]

87. If enough people hear..

... that IDIOTIC statement she made about having to have an insurance card to get a job, the lower her numbers will go.

Truly, only Bush himself has said anything stupider, both politically and practically.

[ChiciB1]

52. I'm An Edwards Supporter... But I Am Not Fooled... This Thing

is bought and paid for! I will do what I can for Edwards, make a mighty WISH that he will get the nomination, but somewhere in the recesses of my brain... that little voice tells me that I DON'T count!

You know that old saying... MONEY TALKS, yatty, yatty, yatty! Who has the most money, and who made most DEALS??

It's not just Patraeus that will BETRAY US!!

[jenmito]

55. Welll, doesn't it depend

where the money comes from? Hillary takes money from lobbyists unlike Obama and Edwards. I have nothing against "regular" people giving money in small amounts, though.

[ecstatic]

59. I guess all of DU's hard work is paying off

:eyes:

[zulchzulu]

68. National polls four months away from first votes mean jack...

If you're into the molecular division of a horse race, national polls this far out are just for you. Anyone who is serious about politics and historically knows the dealio finds these polls as more about ad revenue and name recognition than anything.

We'll see what's happening a couple months from now when it starts counting.

[jenmito]

69. I agree, BUT

I wanted to point out today's poll in response to the many daily Rasmussen polls I have seen here posted by Hillary supporters in the past.

[zulchzulu]

83. I just want to let them down gently

I've heard from people within the Obama campaign who say Clinton's numbers are going to shred by halves as the months go on based on the incredible support and ground game the Obama team has in the states all the way up to February 5th.

It's our little secret.

:thumbsup:

[jenmito]

85. Oh, ok...

I won't tell anyone. :hi:

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

70. GOOD!

maybe people are waking up to the fact that she's not on our side

[jenmito]

71. I hope so...

it looks like the media is finally covering her positions and her scandals, etc.

[AZBlue]

76. I'll say it again: this is the RW group that dismissed Live Earth.

The Live Earth concert promoted by former Vice President Al Gore received plenty of media coverage and hype, but most Americans tuned out. Just 22% said they followed news stories about the concert Somewhat or Very Closely. Seventy-five percent (75%) did not follow coverage of the event.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/skeptical_of_performers_motives_public_tunes_out_live_earth_event

You're really going to listen to them?

[jenmito]

77. So what does this mean? We should disregard Rasmussen polls?

If so, tell it to the Hillary supporters who got me looking at this daily tracking poll in the first place by posting it as proof of how Hillary is doing so much better than everyone else and how Edwards was within the MOE with Obama. :shrug:

[AZBlue]

78. That's a personal decision.

IMO, I think polls are worthless. But, for me, they are even more worthless if they come from a right-leaning group like Rasmussen. I wouldn't listen to them if they told me the sky was blue. So, yeah, I think no matter what they say about HRC, good or bad, they should be dismissed.

[jenmito]

80. OK. I hear ya.

:hi:

[illinoisprogressive]

79. she's fading. fading fast. her campaign is over. Just face it.

I just couldn't help to take the time to post the usual silliness from the hillarybots about Obama and apply it to their hero.

[jenmito]

81. I'm glad you did...

that was the whole point of this thread.

[goodgd_yall]

82. With an error margin of plus or minus 4%

for this poll (as stated on Rasmussen reports website), a drop by 2% doesn't mean much.

[slick8790]

84. No.

It doesn't. But if you look at a chart of her 3-day rolling averages, she is on a bit of a dip. The link's somewhere in this thread, i'll hunt it down if you can't find it.

[jenmito]

86. See post #58 n/t

[Perry Logan]

89. Rasmussen exists to cheer Republicans up.

[Forkboy]

90. I trust you'll continue to point that out even when Hillary supporters post his polls.

[jenmito]

91. I hope so, too!

Thanks for pointing it out! :hi: