Democratic presidential nomination far from tied up

[babylonsister]

Democratic presidential nomination far from tied up
Posted September 21st, 2007 at 2:35 pm

snip//

I’ve mentioned this before, but data from 2003 is pretty illustrative.

* With four months to go before the Iowa caucuses, a national Zogby poll showed John Kerry running fifth with 7% support. John Edwards was in seventh, with 3% support (slightly behind Al Sharpton).

* With six weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, a national ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Howard Dean with more support than his three closest competitors combined. He went on to lose every primary in which he competed.

* With four weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, a national AP poll showed John Kerry in sixth place — with half the support Joe Lieberman enjoyed.

Granted, I suspect voters are paying closer attention now than in 2003, but not much more. For one thing, Dems were pretty desperate to beat Bush at the time. For another, there’s some evidence to suggest Dems are still a little confused about some of the candidates’ policy positions, even on the number one issue (Iraq).

What’s more, Iowa votes first, and can establish some momentum for the winner(s). Right now, Clinton’s lead is huge on the national level, but it’s a three-way race in Iowa, where Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are all very competitive. Democratic pollster Mark Mellman noted that more than two-thirds of the Democrats who voted in the 2004 Iowa caucuses didn’t decide who to vote for until a month before the caucuses. Four in 10 decided in the last week. (Note to Obama: move to Iowa. If you win, the momentum shift will be huge.)

And that’s one of the principal reasons I think Clinton’s campaign may need to worry a bit about expectations. Races narrow; they almost always do. If Clinton’s national lead shrinks from 20 to 10, the media will likely go nuts talking about the senator in “freefall,” when in fact, it’s just a natural tightening that happens in most campaigns. With all this talk about “inevitability,” part of me wonders if Clinton is looking too strong right now.

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http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/12959.html

[orpupilofnature57]

1. AL,Al,al

[sweetladybug]

2. Run Al Run Gore 2008!!!!!!!!

n/t

[orpupilofnature57]

3. A Non hollywood actor , A non leechacrat politician , A man that loves

Our Country.

[Colobo]

4. Hillary/Obama/Edwards... the race is just starting.

[orpupilofnature57]

5. I will vote for any of the three of them ,and they don't stand a chance.

This will take a Magnanimous Figure ,al.

[MaineDem]

6. True. Most people aren't paying attention yet

The political wonks know what's going on and who's running but most other people aren't paying attention yet. People, for the most part, think about politics about 5 minutes a month. And not consecutive minutes either.

Winning an early primary/caucus gives someone tremendous press as people start to even contemplate the election.