Should Obama run as a Midwest "Favorite Son" to win Iowa?

[jcrew2001]

I think Obama's most compelling argument is that he is from the Heartland and is a Proud Midwesterner who will bring Reform and midwestern values to Washington. He needs to embrace religion and small town values.

He can brand Hillary as the favorite of the MSM and the NYC/DC establishment elites. She is a Washington insider who has lived in DC for 20 years and will not bring change but rather continue DC corruption and scandals. Some voters may want to return to the 1996, but Obama needs to make this election a Change for the future, not a return to the Past.

If Obama sticks to the regional themes, he can beat Hillary in Iowa.

[ElizabethDC]

1. But he's not from the heartland, at least not originally

I mean, that's his home now, but he wasn't raised there, he was raised in Hawaii and Indonesia. His mother was from Kansas, though, so he may well have gotten some heartland values from her.

[midlife_mo_Jo]

2. So?

Bush isn't a real Texan, but he's still playing that card!

[sasquatch]

4. Point

Still wrong though but the point is given anyway.

[sasquatch]

3. I think you just reasoned out the OP's answer to that argument

[jcrew2001]

6. He's the Illinois Senator

If that is not Heartland, then I don't know what is.

[ElizabethDC]

11. No one's denying that, obviously. n/t

[jcrew2001]

15. That's my point, he's the Favorite Son

if he can pull it off

[Tellurian]

40. How can he be elected if he wins one state?

Maybe that thinking is too far in advance...

[jcrew2001]

50. It helps to have friends rig the Florida primaries

for you.

[Tellurian]

7. Hillary is from the heartland. She was born in Illinois...

Obama is an Illinois interloper..

[ElizabethDC]

9. Well, I think she could play up the heartland values just as much as he could

especially since she was raised in the Midwest. But the general public may not buy it from either one of them, given that they've both spent significant parts of their lives living in other parts of the country.

[jcrew2001]

12. Obama sure fooled the people of Illinois but Hillary's the NYC liberal

after all, she ran away from park ridge and never looked back. But heck, i would leave the midwest too.

[ElizabethDC]

17. You're so silly.

She "ran away" and somehow wound up in Arkansas for almost 20 years. She didn't make it to NY until about 35 years after she left Illinois.

[jcrew2001]

28. But she didn't go back to Illinois, which is my point

nt

[ElizabethDC]

29. That's true, but I don't think it was based on any kind of rejection of Illinois

rather, there were opportunities for her elsewhere.

[jcrew2001]

31. There are no good jobs in Chicago!

Daly controls that town with an iron fist.

[ElizabethDC]

36. Then how come so many people live there?

It seems to me that the Obamas were able to find good jobs.

[jcrew2001]

49. My point is that the Chicago jobs were not good enough for Hillary

r u a special person

[ElizabethDC]

51. Are you?

I think it's too hard to speculate on what she would have done had she not gone to Arkansas. Clearly, as a Yale Law grad, she had a lot of opportunities open to her.

[Tellurian]

37. The ONLY point you have is attempting to make mountains out of molehills...

The least you could do is ask a worthwhile question.

Like: If we started a pool of how many heads would explode on DU after Hillary wins the nomination; what would be the winning number +- 2.5% moe?

[durrrty libby]

38. I must admit, I really do look forward to that.

[Tellurian]

39. It's a valid question..I think..

would they stay or leave?

[jcrew2001]

10. Yes, the Senator from Illinois is a carpetbagger unlike the

NY senator who escaped Chicago and has spent the last 20 years in NYC and DC.

[ElizabethDC]

14. Yeah, she "escaped" Chicago to go to college

for some nefarious purposes I'm sure. :eyes:

[jcrew2001]

16. Just like Bill escaped Arkansas to go to Georgetown and Yale?

nt

[ElizabethDC]

19. What's your point? n/t

[jcrew2001]

25. Bill went back home to Arkansas

but she didnt, in fact she wanted to practice law in DC

[ElizabethDC]

27. That's not quite the case

I think Hillary didn't know quite what to do after law school, and probably considered a number of options (practicing law in DC among them). As she's said a number of times, she wound up following her heart to Arkansas. And I don't doubt for a second that that's what she "wanted" to do. It has nothing to do with "escaping" from anywhere, for either one of them.

[jcrew2001]

30. She moved to Arkansas because she couldn't work in DC

cuz she failed the bar. Otherwise, she'd be some high-powered lobbyist right now.

[ElizabethDC]

34. No, I don't think so

if Hillary really wanted to work in DC, she could easily have taken the bar again. Or she could have gone to New York or Chicago and practiced law there. Hillary didn't have to go to Arkansas; she went there because that was where Bill was.

[jcrew2001]

52. If she passed the bar, she would have stayed in DC

she ran out of money and had no job, she had to marry Bill. There were no alternatives.

[ElizabethDC]

53. LOL. You're just shitting me now. n/t

[jcrew2001]

55. She could have divorced him or never married him in the first place

She's an opportunist, choosing the best option at the time.

of course she should have passed the bar in DC or Chicago and made a name for herself on her own. There are profession and personal choices that all of us have to make. Sometimes you have to have integrity about your marriage or your job.

The bar is a tough test from what i've heard, it took jfk jr 3 times to pass it. I doubt that Hillary was looking forward to failing it a 2nd time. You can't make any money in the legal profession without passing the bar exam. But since you live in DC, maybe you're more knowledgeable about the alternative jobs she could have gotten.

[ElizabethDC]

56. You like to make a whole lot of assumptions, don't you?

And you know what happens when you assume, don't you?

[jcrew2001]

63. Would you stay married to a guy if he cheated on you?

or if a boyfriend cheated on you.

I know bill and Hillary are hippies, so maybe they like an open marriage. To each his/her own.

[ElizabethDC]

64. Irrelevant. n/t

[ncabot22]

5. I don't think that is a bad idea

He may not have been raised in the Midwest but he does represent a midwestern state in the Senate. Plus, he's live in Illinois a long time so he is familiar with the issues midwesterners face.

[jcrew2001]

8. He's the Illinois Senator and elected to state govt before that

I don't know how he can "fake" being a midwesterner. At least he lives in Chicago, instead of others who leave Park Ridge and never come back. Those who reject the midwest and suck up to the Eastern Establishment elites and NYC values. Those who value lobbyist money over anything else.

[saltpoint]

13. He could, but it didn't work for Gephardt, and besides, Senator Obama

has national creds.

That speech in Boston in 2004 was a barn-burner and a landmark as well.

He's just not a Midwest candidate only. I consider him trans-regional.

[jcrew2001]

18. But he needs to win Iowa first

imo

[saltpoint]

23. Well, he appears to be genuine competitive. From what I've heard, Iowa

right now is quite close. Edwards holds a lead, but Obama and HClinton are in close contention, and Gov. Richardson and Joe Biden coming on strong as well.

This is going to be one of the "keeper" election cycles. I think every day out in those northwestern rural towns is really going to count.

Actually I'm kinda jealous of Iowa Democrats for being in the place to be from now to January.

[jcrew2001]

26. But Florida is trying to win it for Hillary

so every state is trying to carve out its influence.

[saltpoint]

32. After this election cycle I'd love to see Chairman Dean sit down with

a truly blue ribbon panel -- not all the usual yahoos, but actual adepts at the electoral process -- and work up a plan for nominating a candidate.

Former Senator Birch Bayh, IMO, should head the panel. That's really one of his outstanding areas of expertise.

And we need the reforms.

[maximusveritas]

20. Yeah, I think Iowa caucusgoers are more sophisticated than this

They're not just going to vote for someone because he says he's one of them and shares their values. They've got to believe in him and like his ideas. Obama would be better off just being himself, like he's already been doing.

[saltpoint]

22. Agree. Iowa Democrats seem to enjoy their national role and from the

looks of things when I've been out there, they do it pretty darn well.

An informed bunch of folks.

[ElizabethDC]

21. Yep, I consider him trans-regional, too

That's a good term, BTW.

I think Obama shouldn't just emphasize one part of his background, but should embrace all of it (and the same goes for the other candidates.)

[saltpoint]

24. Hi, ElizabethDC. It felt to me (and those I was with that night) that he

did exactly as you say he does for his keynote address at the Boston convention.

That was a speech I wanted piped into every office and home and apartment across the world, so as to say, "Look, world citizens -- THIS is more who we are over here and not George W. Bush."

[jillan]

33. He's from Chicago.

A major metropolitan city.

I don't think many people think of the heartland when you talk about Chicago.

[jcrew2001]

54. Is Park Ridge near Evanston?

Evanston's a nice town.

Well Chicago sure ain't New York City or DC.

[jillan]

60. Park Ridge is much, much, much nicer and richer than Evanston.

[Perky]

35. He hardly needs to win Iowa

If he finishes second he beats expectations and becomes the ABC candidate.
If he Finishes third. it will be around 20% and there is no reason not to continue full bore hoping to get number two in NH and a win in South Carolina,

If he wins Iowa. Hillary is toast IMHO not because she does not have the money, but besause the MSM will say her campaign is floundering and sh lacks the passion for the job, She will have a very hard time recovering. Not so much a knock on her but it is simply the Giant-killer effect that Iowa tends to deliver.

[Tellurian]

41. What scientific extrapolations is your opinion based on?

[Perky]

42. Since when are opinionrequired to be back-up with facts???

If Hillary is the Front-runner and she does not win Iowa...do you not think that the MSM would not tell us that her campaign has not caught fire???????

Do you no think that Obama winning in Iowa would not be stunning news that would suck the oxygen out of the room?

[Tellurian]

43. Well yeah, in light of this article...from Obama's campaign mgr...

Obama campaign manager: Don't count us out

by John McCormick

As presidential candidate Barack Obama campaigns across southwest Iowa today, his campaign manager is distributing a new memo that seeks to dispel any notions that the Illinois Democrat's effort is failing to keep pace with front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York.

"When we got into this race as a largely unknown candidate new to the national political stage, we never expected that nine months later at this stage of the race, we would be in tight three way race Iowa; leading in the money race; have the largest grassroots organization in modern political history; and have an organizational advantage in the early states and February 5 over a quasi-incumbent from the most powerful political machine in modern political history," campaign manager David Plouffe writes in what might fairly be described as a run-on sentence.

Plouffe continues that the media wrongly "remains focused on the simplistic and erroneous view of national polls as predictors" before launching into what he views as "several structural advantages."

In the memo, Plouffe argues the campaign has the best message, biography and is "most in with the electorate." He also claims it has the "largest organizations with the most experienced staff and enthusiastic volunteers in the four early states."

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2007/09/obama_campaign_manager_dont_co.html

articles like this are a heads up pre-death knell to the health and viability of a campaign.. For example, how many states is Obama leading in besides Illinois? Would a front runner status be the ultimate choice for Iowan caucus goers?

[Perky]

44. Yeah right... it is called lowereing expectations?

Heis polling inthe 20s as are Clinton and Edwards and no one's numbers are rally moving anywhere fast. He is holding his own in a state that no one should "own" Clearly Clinton is expected to win Iowa her losing would be a far greater shocker than Obama winning.

[Tellurian]

45. Whatever it is..

It's a very bad sign...imo.. I would love it if Hillary won Iowa. If she didn't, it wouldn't be a shocker to finish 2nd. Hillary is extremely resilient. She's doing extraordinarily well in the other Primary states if you averaged them out, she'd still be #1.

[NoPasaran]

46. I don't think that Hillary necessarily needs to win Iowa

Iowa is a must-win for Edwards. I would expect that as the campaign goes on, Obama will devote most of his resources there against Edwards in the hope that a defeat (or a very narrow victory that will be interpreted as a defeat) would leave him, Obama, as the uncontested UnHillary.

An outright Obama victory in Iowa would certainly be a blow to Hillary, but not necessarily fatal. If she then continued to run behind... In previous years we might have seen Dodd or Richardson emerge as the new favorite of the Party Establishment to deny the nomination to the Obama insurgency, but with so many delegates at stake so soon on Super Duper Tuesday, who can make any serious prediction what might happen?

(And I say all of the above NOT as a Clinton supporter, but as someone who actually enjoys the sport that is Primary Season.)

[Perky]

47. Edwards has to finish 2nd or better

A third place finish might well relgate him to 2nd tier status and make this a two-person race for all intent and purposes.

Obama can finish third with no real harm because of it being Iowa. He finishes bloe 18 percent though and it probably means he is in big trouble.


If the top three have 22$ to 27% each, I think Iowa is a push and that probably means that we are headed for a brokered convention due to the compressed schedule,

[illinoisprogressive]

48. He should talk about the similarities between here and Iowa. both rural and corn states

[Kelly Rupert]

58. Obama never really seems to me like he's terribly concerned with

outstate illinois. Now, Durbin, on the other hand, I think could run as a Midwesterner. Obama's a Chicagoan through and through, IMO.

[Kelly Rupert]

57. He isn't a Midwesterner. He's a Chicagoan.

Chicago and the rest of Illinois might as well be on opposite sides of the nation. Seriously. Chicagoland is about as culturally removed from Iowa as New York is. Nobody's really going to believe "South Side of Chicago shares a common culture with farming communities in Iowa"

[zulchzulu]

62. That's an odd assessment

Have you ever been to Chicago? Did you read "Audacity Of Hope" where Barack has to go all over Illinois and he talks about the many parts of the state?

Peoria is in Illinois. Obama plays well there.

[LWolf]

59. No.

Ideally, Obama and HRC should be open, honest, and upfront with voters, and voters should make sure that neither wins Iowa.

[zulchzulu]

61. Have you read any of Obama's books? He certainly talks about this issue

Read "The Audacity Of Hope". There are many parts where he talks about the midwest. He talks about the issue in many of his speeches.

Check your local library for the book or even see if they have the book on tape/CD. Many libraries have both.