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Edited on Mon Sep-24-07 10:30 PM by Katzenkavalier
The race is taking a very gradual but interesting turn, and that will be reflected on Wednesday's debate, in a BIG WAY. The next debate will definitely mark the beginning of a new stage in the campaign- a much more aggressive period in which Barack Obama and John Edwards will go for broke in their own ways and Hillary Clinton will either succumb or prevail. Let's take a look at the top three first:
1) Hillary Clinton- Her campaign has weathered all the minor storms that has faced so far, although I am not so sure she has not been at least slightly hurt by those. Her debate performances have been either solid or flawless, not necessarily because of what she says, but because of style. Hillary is our Sugar Ray Leonard when it comes to debating: she will win the crowd in the last seconds of her answer. She tries to close every answer with a zinger that will cause applause, even if the zinger has little to do with the question asked. Interestingly enough, the other candidates have not been able to imitate her on that to try to steal some thunder from her.
Now, as the Rasmussen polls are showing, Hillary's campaign has peaked, even if her supporters do not want to admit it. She's leading the pack with a substantial lead, but she won't get out of the high 30s/low 40s range she has managed to get (one poll had her at 47%, but I believe that is way too high and unrealistic). The question is: Can Hillary maintain her lead after Barack Obama puts all his resources to work? That is starting to happen little by little, and Wednesday's debate will be Hillary toughest test to date- I guarantee it. We will see a different Barack Obama, so it will be interesting to see how Hillary deals with him.
So, expect Hillary to be ready, as always. As we saw in the AARP forum, she finally is completely in the health care debate, so expect some interesting rounds of action in that regard. However, I predict Hillary will try to act like she has no competition, and will probably not engage in any serious exchanges, unless John Edwards forces her to do so, he will probably try.
2) Barack Obama- After months of hanging in the low 20s, his numbers have started to move up slowly but surely, probably because of his two policy addresses (Iraq and the Economy, especially the last one), his strong showing at the Harkin event (where he showed how well organized he is in Iowa), his two new ads in Iowa and also because Hillary has gone through somewhat tough weeks lately. Also, the fact that the Obama people have told the American people that they are not "stuck" as a campaign, and that they actually have a serious plan to victory, is also helping.
Add to that today's endorsements, Barack's busy week at NY, closing with the expected mega-rally on Thursday, the whooping 500,000 donations he will probably manage to get before Sept. 30, and the kickoff of the New Hampshire "offensive strike" on Wednesday... you get the point: Obama's starting to put some serious muscle to his campaign, and his numbers can only go up if things go as planned. I think he also missed the AARP forum for a reason- to study it. Not only to raise funds, but to see how frame his health care message better than the others.
It's not hard to assume then that Wednesday's debate will be used as a tool to get Obama's ball rolling. So, expect Obama to challenge Hillary's on stage "Presidential Persona"; Obama WILL NOT attack Hillary directly, but try to put his ideas against hers, like if the debate was a 2 person debate. He will try to frame the race as "Hillary vs. Obama", him being the best alternative to what she has to offer. Expect other candidates, including Biden, Richardson, and Edwards to try to drag him down into serious exchanges, and expect Obama only to respond if necessary, in a forcefully but "Presidential" manner, just like Hillary does.
Watch Obama closely on Wednesday night- Expect a very strong showing.
3) John Edwards- Mr. Edwards is in a very tough spot right now. Distant third in all national polls, in an increasingly tough 3-way race in Iowa, and unlike Obama, whose campaign is starting to awaken, John's seems to be running out of steam and tricks. Using Elizabeth as an attack dog has not worked as expected (if anything, it has helped Obama to keep himself away from negative politics), and to challenge Obama as the "true change candidate" hasn't paid off as expected. His total dependence on Iowa is, if anything, worrisome. The only thing in favor of John at this point are the Union endorsements.
The thing is that we have seen all versions of John Edwards in the Dem debates, and regardless of how good he has looked, especially in the Harkin Steak Fry and the AARP forum, the effect of those solid performances has not been seen, at least yet. At one point, he got quite close to Obama for the 2nd place, but that went off way too quickly.
So, what can Edwards to steal the thunder from Clinton, Obama and yes, Biden at this point? I honestly don't know. I think John will try the aggressive approach again on Wednesday, but Joe Biden is stealing his thunder on that regard, and he seems to be too far away from Obama, in both poll numbers and in re$ource$ to actually put him down.
Expect another passionate, solid and honest performance by Mr. Edwards, although I'm starting to think that the Wild Card of the night will not be him, but:
4) Joe Biden- Wanna see real Joementum? Watch Joe Biden. He doesn't have the cash. He doesn't have the star power. He doesn't even has the attitude (sorry, Bidenites, but I find him arrogant). However, he's the most knowledgeable candidate on our field today. Period. Dude knows his thing for real, and his message is starting to resonate. He also seems to have found the passion to actually try to win the race, or at least have a good showing, and he is basically taking on everyone and their moms with FACTS and good ideas, and being succesful at it.
So, expect Joe to come out swinging, ready to shoot at Clinton, Obama and Edwards, but mostly to the last 2 (especially Obama, who he seems to truly dislike). If Joe manages to keep having strong showings, and manages to force Obama to engage in some furious exchanges, he might knock off Edwards from his 3rd place and shake up Obama's game a bit.
The only problem being that if there is a serious brawl between Obama, Edwards and Biden, Hillary wins.
As for the rest, thanks for participating. Your time is almost up.
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