1 of these 24 folks is our next president.

[saltpoint]

Our next president will almost certainly be chosen from a list of the 24 people below.

DEMOCRATS :dem:

----Joe Biden / Hillary Clinton / Chris Dodd / John Edwards / Mike Gravel

----Dennis Kucinich / Barack Obama / Bill Richardson

REPUBLICANS

----Sam Brownback / Rudy Giuliani / Mike Huckabee / Duncan Hunter

---- John McCain / Ron Paul / Mitt Romney / Tom Tancredo / Fred Thompson

INDEPENDENT

----Michael Bloomberg

POSSIBLES, BUT SO FAR UNANNOUNCED:

----Al Gore / Gary Hart / Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

----Chuck Hagel / Newt Gingrich / Sam Nunn
_______________________________________

Your instinct doesn't have to be 100% "right" but it is telling you that some of these 24 are more likely to be elected than the others.

Of these 24, which dozen or so have a realistic, pragmatic, blood-and-bones shot at the Oval Office?

[pretty_lies]

1. So, Who's The Worst?

Because they'll probably get elected.

[saltpoint]

4. For worst in the 300 million, I'll go with Duke Cunningham.

I don't think his odds are that good.

[TheUniverse]

44. Tom Tancrado is the worst.

Hes a crazy ultra conservative shit, who is running on a platform of bombing Mecca and Medina. Fortunately, he never polls above 2 percent.

[Kelly Rupert]

2. I'll do you better than a dozen.

Dems: Clinton.
Republicans: Ghoul, Thompson, Romney.

[saltpoint]

3. Gov. Richardson made my list of 12.

[Stop Cornyn]

46. Thompson's a longer shot than Obama or Edwards.

[leveymg]

5. Here's something real scary: at this point 4 years ago, Joe Lieberman was the frontrunner

We'd all be either dead or crawling through the wreckage by now.

[illinoisprogressive]

10. true. and if we pick the wrong one this time as well.

[Catchawave]

30. Kerry and Edwards were under 5%

Believe !

[Think82]

36. which is why I think it will be Biden

seriously.

[saltpoint]

39. Good point. What is breath-taking about coming from under 5% to being

first and second with very respectable followings in such a short time is the sheer exhilaration their volunteers must have felt.

It HAD to have been dizzying and dazzling for those people stuffing envelopes and answering phones.

The two Johns roared out of nowhere and placed first and second -- all in a very, very brief window of time.

The Iowa caucus is a barnburner of a political event.

[wildhorses]

6. i will play

12 ....
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards
Al Gore
Newt Gingrich
Mike Gravel
Dennis Kucinich
Barack Obama
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney
Tom Tancredo
Fred Thompson

[saltpoint]

7. wildhorses, thank you. Yours is a provocative list,

and I mean provocative because of the brainpower behind it.

Walk into any Drinking Liberally gathering in the country and my guess is that someone will buy you a beer.

Nice one.

[wildhorses]

8. thanks ---

:blush:

[slick8790]

26. Gingrich above Kucinich, gravel, and obama?

Care to explain?

[wildhorses]

34. ever heard of alphabetical order ---

that is all there is to the order of things...in this particular instance anyway.

[illinoisprogressive]

9. I pick

Biden, Edwards, My candidate, Obama, McCain, the witch.

[saltpoint]

12. A bold stroke there with McCain. I'd written him off for dead by this

time, and had begun calling around town for the best price on a coffin!

[calteacherguy]

13. McCain has 0% chance of winning the Primary.

The Repubicans have 0% chance of winning the general election.

[AZ Criminal JD]

16. That's exactly what we said in 1980 n/t

[MiniMe]

32. Who thought GWB would win the primary, let alone the general election?

[HughBeaumont]

33. I did.

Never go broke underestimating America's weird affection for royalty and name recognition. Same goes for 2008. Count on it. I don't like it but there's more than a 75% chance that it's going to happen.

[calteacherguy]

11. Clinton, and Obama has a long-shot. The others might as well pack up and go home. nt

[tkmorris]

14. Interesting that you included Gary Hart

I have to admit that I like him rather a lot. What made you think of him as a possible anyway? I've seen nothing to indicate this.

[saltpoint]

15. Hart doesn't get the hubbub and hullaballoo that Gore gets, but he's

out there as a possible addition to the political landscape.

http://www.garyhartnews.com/hart/

the funding would be an issue for a Hart presidential run, but he would serve beautifully as a National Security chief or even a vice president.

He also has a Divinity Degree and would be able to hold his own against some of the more fundie-flogging Pukes.

[saltpoint]

17. - - - - - - - - -

1 Al Gore (if he runs...feels like a 51-49 chance to me)
2 John Edwards (IMO the most electable candidate coast to coast)
3 Joe Biden (very possibly his time at last)
4 Barack Obama (dramatically underrated at the present...very potent)

no special order / end first tier

5 Hillary Clinton (establishmentarian poise goes a long way in politics)
6 Michael Bloomberg (so does money, sometimes)
7 RFK Jr (a living link to a time when the nation still strove for equality and justice)
8 Bill Richardson (best resume out there and a hell of a likeable soul)

no special order / end second tier

9 Mitt Romney (has the Pollyanna grin and a fat wallet)
10 Mike Huckabee (if he can get some traction, he'll be hot; if he doesn't, he fizzles completely)
11 Rudolph Giuliani (a lot of voters a fooled by "America's mayor")
12 Fred Thompson ( a godsend for voters especialy drawn to lardass yahoos)

no special order / end third tier

[Kelly Rupert]

18. You think Joe Biden has a better shot than HRC?

There's a take I haven't seen.

[saltpoint]

21. I'm keen to the statistical anomaly in the polling. Absent a Gore run,

I think Biden is demographically and strategically positioned to emerge a contender by late fall.

He candidacy will be on the ascent correspondent to election-cycle feed of 24-7 news. He's a perfect candidate for an era of 24-7 info cycles piped into every office and home. Foreign policy adept easily grafted onto global news urgency coupled with extreme Bush fatigue. All politics is local except when it isn't.

[Auntie Bush]

29. I think Biden is a good choice too. I'd be really happy and feel secure

with him as president. Here's one for Biden! :beer:

[saltpoint]

31. Yes. I'll buy the second round!

Biden's a good man. I'd feel more at home as an American citizen with a grown-up like that in the Oval Office.

[Think82]

37. and another!

[peacetheonlyway]

19. DENNIS DENNIS he's our man

if he can't win.

nobody can....


whisper mill says he's winning ohio and done all the right backroom deals that Hillary/obama and Edwards too proud and egotistical to forge to win the caucuses in ohio.

remember folks it's more like a popularity contest than an election and Kucinich is gaining HUGE popularity and his wife is drop dead stunning and cute with her british accent.

[saltpoint]

22. Dennis' hot wife notwithstanding, I'm always of two minds on his candidacy.

The only time he's been on anything resembling a statewide ballot in Ohio was the 04 Democratic primary.

Ohio Democrats chose later in the cycle than Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats and their vote suggested their totals in Iowa with Kerry winning just over 50% and Edwards second in the lower mid-30s, and Kucinich at 9% and Dean at 3%:

OHIO DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS, 2004

KERRY 617,611 52%

EDWARDS 408,175 34%

KUCINICH 107,685 9%

DEAN 30,213 3%

Kucinich ran vigorous races to good response in Maine, Minnesota, and Hawai'i, but in his native state he polled 9%.

Kucinich is a NE Ohio Democrat and one of my favorite citizens. But he would not win a statewide election in Ohio IMO, especially with SW Ohio being Boehner country and Mean Jean Schmidt country. It turns real red down there in some of those SW Ohio precincts, even pre-Blackwell.

I love Kucinich but am not seeing the apparatus for a national win for him in an all-region election cycle.

[Tom Rinaldo]

20. OK here is mine

Clinton
Gore
Obama
Edwards
Biden
Dodd

Giuliani
Thompson
Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Gingrich

"Wild Card" - Bloomberg


Roughly listed in order of chances to become President by Party, with Gore a major variable who makes ranking difficult. I would rank Bloomberg's chances of actually becoming President if he ran (he has an advantage over someone like Edwards who first has to win his Party's nomination to stand in the General Election) as below Clinton, Gore, and Obama (who has a better chance to win the Democratic nomination than Edwards) but above the rest of the Democratic field.

Dodd and Biden over Richardson only because his momentum is moving in the wrong direction.

Realistically, on the Democratic side only Clinton and Obama have fairly good or better chances, Edwards has some chance. Gore has a fairly good chance if he enters the race by Mid October, a very slim chance only to get the nomination from a deadlocked convention if he does not.

I don't key in as much on Republicans at this stage but Guiliani, Thompson, and Romney have the best chances; followed by Huckabee, McCain and Gingrich (if he runs) having slight chances.

Wild card Bloomberg has a decent chance if he ran but I don't think he will. I do not believe any of the other currently non declared candidates will run. I would rank Blumberg's chances as clearly below Giuliani, and slightly below the other Republicans in my top tier of probability to become President. Edward's overall chances to actually become President are slightly less than Bloomberg or the top three Republicans but better than McCain, Huckabee, or Gingrich. McCain's odds would shoot up to put him in my top 5 after Clinton Gore Giuliani and Obama if he had a realistic chance to win his nomination. Same with Edwards, though his chances to win the nomination are clearly stronger than McCain's. Anyone who manages to secure the nomination of a major Party obviously then ranks in the top two (or three with a major 3rd Party candidate) to become President. That hurdle obviously is a bigee.

I think Clinton, Giuliani, Obama and Gore, roughly in that order, are most likely to emerge from this electoral process with the Presidency. If I knew Gore was running he would be close behind Clinton in my rankings of likely to become President. Bloomberg would have a chance close to that of Romney and Thompson, again assuming he ran. I rank McCain, Huckabee and Gingrich's chances below that of Bloomberg because (as with Edwards) their chances to win their Pary's nomination are uphill. Should Edwards, McCain, Huckabee or Gingritch manage to get nominated, then Edwards and McCain would clearly have a better chance than Bloomberg to get elected, and Huckabee and Gingrich would have chances roughly equal to Bloomberg's.

Hard to handicap Biden and Dodd's chances if they got the nomination because it is hard now to imagine what could propell them up to that position, but if one of them did get the nomination, then obviously something dramatic happened to shake up the race.

How is that for going out on a limb,lol?

[saltpoint]

23. Out on a limb in some respects, but a very insightful analysis all the same.

Agree with you that Bloomberg gets wildcard status. He might do anything and he has the bucks to do anything with.

As to Bloomberg, I greatlyl prefer him as NYC mayor to his thuggish, thick-headed predecessor, but am more appreciative of his not being Giuliani than I am enamored of the idea of him as president. Unfortunately for me, Bloomberg has the cash to eclipse my wishes for the political landscape and by 2008, plenty of time on his hands. He's still a pretty young guy.

Your post is some of the most thoughtful commentary I've seen on the mechanisms for winning nomination, especially the distinctions you draw between the difficulties some candidates face for nomination within their own ranks and base versus their demographic appeal in a general election.

My hat's off to you on that and I hope to keep seeing still more of it on DU as this autumn becomes more interesting.

Finally: On Gore. I agree that if Gore's in by mid to late October, it will shake and bake the entire kitchen.

Thank you for your post. It's a keeper.

[rasputin1952]

24. I don't know why, but I think another D candidate will enter the

fiasco and take it all.

I have no idea who this could be, but I have this feeling that we are all pretty sick of the present crop, and we need someone who will actually tackle real problems w/o all of the histrionics.

Just about anyone would appear as fresh w/new and exciting ideas on how to get us past the present horror, and w/the incredible length and pointless tirades the current crop is doling out, (creating nothing but serious animosity w/in the party), the field is wide open to anyone w/brains and a viable set of plans.

As for the GOP...they are dead in the water, and if Moses himself came back to lead the party, they would still wander the desert for 40 years after this POS bush and the horrid mess he's made of the country.

[saltpoint]

25. I think your premonition is well within range, but agree with you about

not being sure just who that candidate might be.

The race doesn't feel settled to me at all.

Agree also on your insight on the Republicans. They'd probably boo Moses off the stage in Minneapolis at their convention. He'd be too liberal for most of the GOP base!

[defendandprotect]

27. And . . . maybe not -- ????

[saltpoint]

28. Yep. Someone not yet fully considered could emerge.

[ozone_man]

35. Eight from me.

DEMOCRATS:
Hillary Clinton- 8 more years of war
Barack Obama - Less war than above
John Edwards - Less war than above
Dennis Kucinich - if conditions (economic, social, and war) get considerably worse, he has a chance.
Mike Gravel - He gets my vote whether he has a chance, purely a vote of conscience for me. He's running to say the things that real Democrats should say, but lack the courage to say. Except for Kucinich that is. :)

REPUBLICANS:
Rudy Giuliani - The 911 candidate. Trouble is that people are weary of 911.
Ron Paul - If economic and war conditions get considerably worse, he has a chance. Wants to abolish the FED. No argument from me.

LATE ENTRY:
Al Gore - He will win if he runs. May save the planet from destruction.

[saltpoint]

40. Thanks for throwing in, ozone_man. I understand why you'd be

attracted to a Kucinich or Gravel candidacy. My hunch is that you might run into a lot of others who agree with you before this is all over.

Whether either (or both?) can make inroads toward a big delegate percentage in Denver, I don't know yet.

But it looks like they're gonna give it a go.

[Patsy Stone]

38. My list (in no particular order)

Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Chris Dodd
John Edwards
Barack Obama
Dennis Kucinich
Rudy Giuliani
Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
Al Gore
Chuck Hagel

[saltpoint]

41. Hi, Patsy Stone. I like the Dem-heavy top slots and you've got a couple

of bold strokes there, too -- with Biden and Dodd.

And Hagel at the hindmost, too.

Thank you for a provocative list.

[Patsy Stone]

42. I thought twice

about Kucinich, and Bloomberg. One made it through, one didn't.

[saltpoint]

47. Yep. I think politics is like that, and you've got the spirit of things

in zone. And speaking of those two -- what an interesting race it would become if Dennis Kucinich had Bloomberg's budget.

[TheUniverse]

43. Heres my top 12.

The Good Candidates.

1.Dennis Kucinich - In a perfect world, he would be the nominee

2.Al Gore - His speeches against Bush and the Iraq War are brilliant, and he is one of the few who will speak out on global warming. Please run Al, the planet needs you.

Everyone Else
3.Mike Gravel - I hate his fair tax plan, but he supports universal Healthcare, and I know he would get us out of Iraq. I consider Iraq the number one issue so I vote for him above anyone I consider pro war

4.Ron Paul - I hate 70 percent of what he stands for, but The Iraq war is the key issue to me, and I would vote for someone I disagree with 70 percent of the time, before I'd vote for someone I think is gonna continue the war

5.Barack Obama - Hes my Senator, and he has been a great Senator. He was against the Iraq war in the beginning, but what is with about not promising troops out by 2013... the 10th god damn anniversary of of the war!

6.Joe Biden - He voted for the war, but he has a federation style to get us out of Iraq, I guess that would put him above other pro war dems.

7.Chuck Hagel - again another Repub scmhuck I disagree with 99 percent of the time. Hes even a fetus fetish fuck. And he voted for the Iraq war. But hes been more against the Iraq war recently than many of the Democrats, so I would support him first. The Iraq war is key

8.John Edwards - He was a pro war Democrat, but he recanted and apologized for his vote. But he seems like an opportunist, and wont guarantee getting out of Iraq before 2013.

9.Bill Richardson - He had some diplomatic success with Saddam, that has o be worth something, but hes another Dem who was for the war, than against it...

10.Chris Dodd - I don't know much about this guy.

11. Hillary Clinton - Please don't let her be the nominee. She has been one of the most pro war Democrats ever. She has been bought out by the healthcare lobby, and no longer supports true universal healthcare. She voted for Lieberman's Iran bill, and seems to only say shes against the Iraq War, when it will help her politically.

12.Michael Bloomberg - what the hell, he was a republican who left the party, and spoke out against Bush's supreme court nominee. He can't be all bad.

[saltpoint]

48. While it doesn't sound as if Sen. Clinton has your vote in the primary, you

have a very good view on the other candidates and speak to many of their strengths.

On DU and other blogs, things can get very intra-partisan and your post, as several others here have also, widens the window for a far longer view.

Agree on Ron Paul -- awfully damn accurate on Iraq but my god the majority of his positions on other issues, etc.

Kucinich and Gore top your list, and there's much to respect and admire about both those men. Both represent heightened citizenship, even if it is in different ways and styles, and that in and of itself recommends them as models for the 300 million of us in the U.S.

[Stop Cornyn]

45. 24? It'll be Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Giuliani, Romney, or Thompson.

No one else has a realistic chance.