Interesting even if Fineman mistakenly thinks there are only two Dem candidates. On that level, I find it insulting to the other candidates. Nonetheless, there are some interesting portions, IMO:
To put things in football terms:
Since they are Chicagoans, sort of, and since this is football season, let me use a gridiron analogy. Unless Obama absorbs the spirit of the riled up ’85 Bears, who blitzed on every down, Hillary will continue to dink and dunk her way down the field to victory.
Dems vs. Reps:
Hillary has benefited from Bush in another way: His mere existence has so unified the party that the Democrats are behaving the way Republicans used to: they seem, so far, to want an orderly nomination process as they keep their eye on the main chance. (The GOP, meanwhile, is behaving like the Democrats used to: divided, confused and self-destructive.)
Analysis:
Still, I distrust the consensus of conventional thinking that already has awarded Clinton the nomination. We still are nearly four months away from the first votes being cast, but here are some other reasons why it may still be too early for a coronation:
Money: The Clintonistas are telling me that they think Obama will outraise them again in the third quarter. He has been spending lots of cash, especially in Iowa, but still is likely to have much more COH (cash on hand) than Hillary for the next few months. This is a novel situation: an “outsider, insurgent” candidate with more money to throw around than the establishment candidate. How he spends this money is critical. He has a choice: keep trying to be the coolest, most admirable character on the quad – or go after the BWOC.
Media: Lets’ face it, the press’s native mode is to want a race and, by our very nature, we will try to force one into existence if for no other reason than it is “good copy” and “good TV.” True, the GOP presidential race is likely to be entertainingly close, confused and chaotic. Still, Clinton is THE story, and the farther ahead she gets in the polls and in CW thinking, the more sensational the story would be of a sudden fall from presidential inevitability.
Bill: What the First Husband giveth, he can take away. In the “World According to Garp,” the hero argues that it is safe to move into a house because it once had been hit by an airplane. Thus, he says, the place was “pre-disastered.” So is the Clinton marriage. I think Hillary can survive almost any imaginable new chapter in their saga, IF there is one to be written. The key word: almost.
Independents: In New Hampshire, this is Obama’s real chance – the chance for what would be a stunning upset. I flew up here today with former Sen. Warren Rudman, a moderate Republican (and John McCain supporter) who is one of the most knowledgeable men alive about politics in the Granite State. He pointed out to me that there are, today, more voters in New Hampshire registered as Independents than as either Republicans or Democrats. He reminded me that they can easily vote in either primary. The interplay of the two primaries is crucial. In 2000, McCain’s candidacy drew most of the independents into the GOP race, giving McCain the upset win over George Bush and effectively killing Sen. Bill Bradley’s chances against Vice President Al Gore. In 2008, I doubt that many independents are going to vote in the GOP primary. They are going to gravitate to the Democratic race. If Obama is going to win, that is the constituency he needs. The sales effort has to start tomorrow.
Full story:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20972722/(on edit: perhaps in these heated times I should restate that I don't have a candidate because I don't like anyone's healthcare plan, so if you didn't already notice, this post is not slanted one way or the other)
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